Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KSilver2000]

I hope the Apr 22 event will explain this question:

Say I buy a Model 3 and elect to "put it in the Network" so that it can make money as a ride-sharing vehicle.

Question: what happens if/when the FSD makes the 1-in-a-million mistake and does something that causes injury or property damage or worse? Who is responsible? Tesla? Me? The passengers? Say it is a really obvious case: the logs show the driverless car drove, at full speed, straight into an 18-wheeler crossing the road, the car simply didn't see the side of the trailer, and drove under it, passenger dies, etc.

Now scale it up to say 5-10 freak 1-in-a-million (heck, 1-in-a-billion) edge-cases a year, resulting in fatalities or serious injury. Is Tesla going to own this risk? Will individuals putting their car in the Network own the risk? Will Tesla indemnify such owners?

Inquiring minds, etc.

Here’s your answer:

So I guess that once they feel convinced they understand the risk (and how to profit from insuring against it)

Just like how most everyone here blames the driver for current autopilot accidents, it will likely be on the car owner in my opinion. I can’t imagine Tesla or insurance co.’s taking on that responsibility without enormous insurance reserves from even higher premiums.

 

[Vaamo]

Have someone came across T.RowePrice holdings numbers as of 31.3.2019 related to TSLA?
Seems that T.RowePrice has cut their stake at TSLA for another 79% in Q1 2019

I have came across tweet from #tslaq. Nonetheless, as far as I have verified, the numbers are correct(still gathering the data myself, will follow with edit later)
this tweet:
People's Grain on Twitter

numbers from:
T. Rowe Price Personal Investor - Portfolio Holdings for Mutual Funds

As I can't edit as a new member, I try to quote.

It is FUD.
Although, on 31Dec2018, T.RowePrice had 5.2% stake in TSLA, holding 8,937,685 shares.
They are holding much less, now at least according to the T. Rowe Price Personal Investor - Portfolio Holdings for Mutual Funds

It seems to be cut at least few million shares(preliminary over 3 milion shares)

I am leaving office, but will get back to it later in the day to finish the numbers.

 

[anthonyj]

Remember to progressively lock in some profits if you bought the dip for a short term trade. Especially calls. This low volume creep up looks awfully similar to the last 3 announcements ($35k Model3, Model Y reveal, Q1 production #s)

 

[jerry33]

One assumes these were mostly notification emails and you likely had a rule setup to put most directly into the trash?

When I was service manager for a system that was permanently on fire, I was getting 400 per day and assuming you need to actually do real work, this was already completely unmanageable.

These days I'm getting 100-150, which is still too many.

Most did not go in the trash. A lot of them were monitoring and log emails, and were filtered into various directories to indicate if things were well or not. (It also made them easy to get stats out of.) The really important ones also sent a text message. The system I used made them perfectly manageable. (Hint: It wasn't MS)

 

[Driver Dave]

Barron's - an hour ago: Tesla Stock Could Suffer if Buyers Wait for the Improved Model S and X Cars, Analyst Says

Oppenheimer’s Colin Rusch, who has an Outperform rating and a $437 price target—some 36% above FactSet’s $320 average—on Tesla stock, lowered his 2019 revenue and non-GAAP profit estimates in part due to concerns about sales for the company’s more profitable cars.

Tesla Stock Could Suffer When Analysts Make Up Stuff And Barron's Publishes It, Tesla Driver Says

 

[Curt Renz]

Reminder to options traders:

The markets will be closed Friday, so this week's expiring options will effectively do so at the market close on Thursday.

Based on yesterday's close, Max Pain for the soon expiring TSLA options is $275: Opricot Open Interest|Volume|Max Pain

 

[Mobius484]

So far linettes article is NOT effecting the SP. FWIW


It’s ok to click, there’s no link to her article....

 

[AlMc]

Sooo, question for you experts.
If you had $45000 to spend, which option would you chose:

1) Buy a Model 3 (with FSD) and use it as part of the Tesla Network to generate money for the next 5 years.
or
2) Buy TSLA stock and sell in 5 years.

I would put half in ARKK and use the other half as a down payment on the 3. But that us just me and not 'real advice'. Cathie wood and her team seem to know when to buy/sell TSLA much better than I.

 

[carterm2]

This is worth watching if you want to evaluate your risks. You don't have to agree. I don't agree with conclusions, but it's worth knowing your risks if you're person that would take the red pill...
If you are a blue pill type of person, no need to see this video.

To conclude, best bear theses I've ever seen. Actually, more precisely, the only one that wasn't moronic.

For me, This fellow looks and sounds reasonable. But my impression was his conclusion was based more on the low production and delivery numbers than any other information, regardless of his claims of research. So to be clear... since TSLA sold 30% fewer cars, there must be a demand problem, therefore I will look like a genius and say there is one and that is why TSLA should be worth $20.

Calling BS.

 

[AlMc]

It'd be great if investors get free FSD upgrade if they own a Tesla car. Watch the stock soar.

It would be great if investors could preorder a pickup before the FSD price increase....

it would be good if we can get back to SP $300, great at $350...about 'about time' to $400. Am I asking too much as an investor?

 

[elliott82]

Sorry to ask again but as far as I know the Maxwell tender offer extension ends today. Are there any more infos about that?

 

[AlMc]

Sorry to ask again but as far as I know the Maxwell tender offer extension ends today. Are there any more infos about that?

Was extended: Tender Offer Extension for Acquisition of Maxwell Technologies, Inc. | Tesla, Inc.

 

[CyberDutchie]

People will buy FSD. It’ll be abundantly clear down the road (not sure when-will differ for different people) that if a car doesn’t have it, its resale value is greatly affected.

So unless you plan on keeping the car until the motor gives out at 1 million miles or the body falls off, which could be replaced panel by panel...your car is worth that of a useless old nag - glue.

I delayed buying it on my 3, which saved me a bit of money. Yay, me! I ordered it without hesitation for my Y. Yay, me again!

You ordered a Model Y with a two years wait?

If more people like you exist that would bode well for Tesla. Wonder if they would comment on that on the ER...

 

[elliott82]

Oh my bad, thanks!

 

[kbM3]

This is worth watching if you want to evaluate your risks. You don't have to agree. I don't agree with conclusions, but it's worth knowing your risks if you're person that would take the red pill...
If you are a blue pill type of person, no need to see this video.

To conclude, best bear theses I've ever seen. Actually, more precisely, the only one that wasn't moronic.

@Zhelko Dimic, I went through the Real Vision video, personally I think his thought process is wrong and I don't agree with most of his points. I would appreciate if you can list a few points that make sense. I will try to explain my thought process. If the discussion end up showing he is right, I am wrong, that may help more than just myself.

Here’s my take on his best points:
1). Demand IS the central issue.
2) Tesla will face a headwind in U.S. sales and a competitive disadvantage because of reduced tax credits.
3) If his data on test drives is accurate, that looks bad.

My thoughts:
1) It is true that demand is the central issue, but he erroneously used $50k and up, instead of $39k and up, and ignored Tesla’s advantages and played up the competition’s.
2) True, but hopefully addressed by our magnificent government. Yay!
3) Didn’t Tesla start penalizing test drives recently?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

So far linettes article is NOT effecting the SP. FWIW
View attachment 397456

It’s ok to click, there’s no link to her article....

Ah, so that was hers. I was wondering if it would be, but didn’t want to give them the click to find out. Thanks.

 

[Uptownman]

It's a very long video, I don't want to waste hours to explain why I think the video is wrong. What's the point? To convince people to stay long? I don't want to convince anyone. Each investor should do their own research and make their own decisions.

I'm just curious why an intelligent investor like Zhelko thinks that video has the best bear arguments. If he can list the main points, maybe I can spend 10 minutes to explain my view.

Here's two points he made. 1)When you produce more than you sell plus more than you have orders for that's a demand problem. 2)When your sales &customer service is bad that devalues the brand.

 

[KSilver2000]

You ordered a Model Y with a two years wait?

If more people like you exist that would bode well for Tesla. Wonder if they would comment on that on the ER...

I would expect them to comment on that if it is about as much or more than the number of reservations they received for the 3. If it is less, I don’t know whether that’s a number they should divulge. Although, not revealing it is probably telling also.

After being a day 1 reservation holder for both the X and 3, and seeing what Tesla had done with pricing and options once they released them, I decided not to reserve the Y. I feel there are others who may have done the same.

 

[AlexS]

So far linettes article is NOT effecting the SP. FWIW
View attachment 397456

It’s ok to click, there’s no link to her article....

But the article is not that bad: Insiders describe a world of chaos and waste at Panasonic's massive battery-making operation for Tesla

she describes hurdles like many production companies have. The good thing is that article brings out that there is double quality check for cells, which is very good news.

And problems she describes are quickly solvable, by additional training and explaining to personnel and probably some extra supervision.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

If they wanted to push owners further on to the network they could offof free supercharging to cover the time passengers are being driven around. The marginal cost to the owner would only be time and a little wear and tear.

I'm still somewhat unconvinced enough Tesla owners would want to give up their time to drive though as they are likely generally making much more money in their day job or are independently wealthy.

I wouldn't do it just because I don't want strangers in my car. Who knows where they've been?

Now, if this was say 10 years from now, and I've replaced my Model 3 with a newer variant, but still have the Model 3 ... maybe then I put it to work on the network, assuming this whole FSD network driverless future arrives. At which point, yay free money!