Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[azaz]

I think he was saying that starting tomorrow FSD will be the main focus of marketing a Tesla car. Right now the focus is that electricity is cheaper than gas, but tomorrow they will push FSD as why someone should buy Tesla over BMW etc

And I think this is incredibly wrong and dangerous given how wrong Elon has been about FSD in the past. Tesla’s are the best cars even with just better AP that can handle urban driving too.

The gap between car can drive anywhere but you might be asked to take over every once in a while and you can go to sleep in the car/robotaxis is a massive gap.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Does it really matter what SP does tomorrow? Or next week? Or this year? If Elon is right and they reach full FSD this year and start deploying a fleet of a million robotaxi's next year - by the flick of a button, after regulatory approval - then SP will automatically follow. In a huge way. And it really won't matter what it will have done up to that moment. In fact, if it has stayed low or even gone down more, it will only have created a huge buying opportunity. After seeing today's presentation, those who will have missed the opportunity can only blame themselves.

Thank you, someone here gets it.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Another video taken of the clip has emerged. Now I'm not sure again.

"emerged" lol. Yeah he got caught faking the timestamps so now the rerelease crops out the timestamp. Don't be gullible. This is fake.

Notice the combustion in the clouds? That's a propane fire.

 

[Cloxxki]

It's a while ago Tesla posted that one drive that didn't require the driver to offer input to the car.
What might it mean that we saw nothing of the sort this time? Test drives in a controlled environment...what might that mean to shareholder who obviously know the cars and brand? The novelty of the features they know but without someone in the driver's seat?

In my country, braking on the highway is not allowed unless an emergency. And highways are where EAP/FSD shines so far. Yet, close to driverless cars, we still see pretty many phanton braking events. Once per 1000 km would be way too many for regulators, I'm sure. I don't understand why that still happens, more than with AP1.

 

[capster]

actually used k-nearest neighbors for an undergrad assignment thanks for the burst of nostalgia!

Ha, burst of nostalgia for me too! Haven't thought about it much since grad school, which is, um, a while ago now...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Was I the only one cringing when Elon felt he had to re-state that all cars made today will be able to FSD? Wasn't AP1 supposed to be that, then 2, then 2.5? And even then, which member of the audience wasn't up to speed with this yet?

No to AP1, AP2 was billed as likely capable but with the computer upgradeable to the dual-chip version that ended up in AP2.5 if it didn’t have the processing power. With AP2.5 I don’t believe they added any new claim to the hardware 100% being capable...

Between AP2/2.5, you can pretty certainly take 1 mistaken claim of the hardware being capable, but more than that is stretching it a bit.

 

[Cloxxki]

If Elon is right and they reach full FSD this year and start deploying a fleet of a million robotaxi's next year - by the flick of a button, after regulatory approval - then SP will automatically follow.

A million? Which cars would that be? Most Tesla owners would not robotaxi their car out just yet. They don't rent their car out either. And there would not be a million of them with Level 5 hardware.
Elonism for 20K per month?

 

[Todd Burch]

We probably aren't going to get a lot of detail about the rides due to NDA.

View attachment 399635

Good sign. Couldn’t film, but hopefully he can still write about it?

I want to hear the impressions from a skeptic.

 

[Cloxxki]

Pls explain this. Citation?

Safe from the competition that comes later and does not need its own feet, can just retrofit any vehicle almost. Tesla makes fancy cars. If econoboxes start competing for the same robotaxi business, it will be a hard sell, 50-100% extra for the privilege of a shallow Model 3 rear seat.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

It's a while ago Tesla posted that one drive that didn't require the driver to offer input to the car.
What might it mean that we saw nothing of the sort this time? Test drives in a controlled environment...what might that mean to shareholder who obviously know the cars and brand? The novelty of the features they know but without someone in the driver's seat?

In my country, braking on the highway is not allowed unless an emergency. And highways are where EAP/FSD shines so far. Yet, close to driverless cars, we still see pretty many phanton braking events. Once per 1000 km would be way too many for regulators, I'm sure. I don't understand why that still happens, more than with AP1.

Why are you comparing what Autopilot on HW 2.0 or 2.5 does now to what Autopilot will be able to do on HW 3.0 and with all the learning from NN? It doesn't come close, very few of the ultimate capabilities have been rolled out so far.

 

[Todd Burch]

Regarding LIDAR:

I am in the metrology (precision measurement) software industry. Part of what we deal with is photogrammetry, where you take a series of still pictures and derive 3D measurements from it.

Even basic still cameras can derive precision measurements with sub-millimeter accuracy at a fairly large distance. Given that the 8 cameras can take pictures of the same scene from multiple positions on the car, and from several points in time, they can absolutely derive accurate positional information from images alone.

This further reinforces that LIDAR is a dead-end. Elon is right. It adds no value to the equation. Shocked that people STILL aren’t getting that.

 

[Todd Burch]

Safe from the competition that comes later and does not need its own feet, can just retrofit any vehicle almost. Tesla makes fancy cars. If econoboxes start competing for the same robotaxi business, it will be a hard sell, 50-100% extra for the privilege of a shallow Model 3 rear seat.

Tesla can easily design a car optimized for riding...if TN is working they’ll sure as heck have the money.

 

[dc_h]

Well, contrary to popular belief, Waymo is neither in the "car selling"- nor in the "ride hailing"-business.

Instead Waymo is supposed to become to cars and Robotaxis what Android is to smartphones – a licensable piece of tech. And they very well be able to pull this off, again!

Sure, you can laugh at Waymo's current capabilities and required hardware, yet, they are still miles ahead of what most traditional automakers can do today. If said automakers fall behind even further, they might one day have no other option than to license whatever tech is available on the market.

Who’s going to license a license to print money?

 

[Fred42]

A million? Which cars would that be? Most Tesla owners would not robotaxi their car out just yet. They don't rent their car out either. And there would not be a million of them with Level 5 hardware.
Elonism for 20K per month?

What did EM actually say about the million robotaxis?

 

[Cloxxki]

Tesla can easily design a car optimized for riding...if TN is working they’ll sure as heck have the money.

Design sure, but manufacture? Not the money in the world fixes that, apparently.
For a retrofitting operation, the whole feet has been on the road for years already. Cheap.

 

[shortburn]

Not sure how legit but this guy seems to have tweeted about the demos.

link: Hamid Shojaee on Twitter

 

[MarcusMaximus]

View attachment 399641
Not sure how legit but this guy seems to have tweeted about the demos.

link: Hamid Shojaee on Twitter

Guy also has video of enhanced summon appearing to work at normal parking lot speed, rather than the 3mph we’ve seen previously... looks legit.

 

[Johnny Ma]

Regarding LIDAR:

I am in the metrology (precision measurement) software industry. Part of what we deal with is photogrammetry, where you take a series of still pictures and derive 3D measurements from it.

Even basic still cameras can derive precision measurements with sub-millimeter accuracy at a fairly large distance. Given that the 8 cameras can take pictures of the same scene from multiple positions on the car, and from several points in time, they can absolutely derive accurate positional information from images alone.

This further reinforces that LIDAR is a dead-end. Elon is right. It adds no value to the equation. Shocked that people STILL aren’t getting that.

I said I'm a FSD skeptic, but I'm firmly against anyone that says "LIDAR IS NECESSARY FOR FSD." Do you mind if I share this on Twitter? Or if you're on there, share it yourself and I'll retweet

 

[PhaseWhite]

The PR problem will be huge with a Tesla robotaxi service. Imagine the car fires x 100. Even if the robotaxis are 10x better than human, there will be news stories every day about a Tesla robotaxi doing something stupid, lol.

Posts like this make me wish there was an agree button since I agree with this post, but don't like it.

We already see this pattern on a few fronts:
1. Fatal car accidents happen all the time, but the ones involving autonomous systems are front page news. Autopilot especially.
2. Cars start on fire every day, but a Tesla catching on fire is a viral video promoted by the media.

I'm in the camp that thinks autonomous systems will likely need to be at least 10x-20x safer (5-10% of the accidents of non autonomous cars), and even then each accident will receive scrutiny (At least until autonomous cars make up a larger % of cars on the road). And even if the software is perfect, to achieve additional safety will require perceived sacrifice, as the cars will drive more cautiously to the annoyance of some passengers and other drivers.

 

[Pras]

show me mood indeed. tesla seems to be aware. elon stressed how they've accomplished everything they've set out to do during his part of the presentation and tried hard to imply they'd also reach their FSD goals.

don't know if I've announced it on this forum, but I'm one of the (few of us) here who are FSD skeptic. I'd be more than thrilled to be wrong. that said, enjoyed the presentation. andrej and pete are brilliant. missed a little bit of the other guy's part. he was certainly the most polished.

Are you Tesla FSD skeptic (meaning Tesla technology is poor than competition) or you think any OEM FSD will come very late (say after 10-15 years)?
I think if anyone will come to FSD, it will be tesla. This is an AI problem and Tesla has advantage.