Carl Raymond
Active Member
Because the goal is to get as many FSD cars on the road as possible. It’s an end game strategy.
(Given cell constraint)
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Because the goal is to get as many FSD cars on the road as possible. It’s an end game strategy.
(Given cell constraint)
We need the SEC out of the way before it will rally and we can relax a bit.
There's also quite some short covering to be done - they've been piling in over the last week and I can't really see the sense for them to stay in their positions from here. But then again, many of them are a bit dim.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
So, 25 days into Q2, those 10K 'In-Transit' Model 3s should have been mostly delivered. We know know from the EC that the ASP is now close to $50K, so let's just use that as a round number, along with 20% gross margin also from the EC yesterday.
That's 10K*$50K*20% or 100 MILLION USD in FCF already in Q2.
Tesla doesn't need a capital raise to build a new Sprung Structure in Fremont for Model Y. Then they can share the Schuler Press too.
I like it.
That's 10K*$50K*20% or 100 MILLION USD in FCF already in Q2.
Tesla doesn't need a capital raise to build a new Sprung Structure in Fremont for Model Y. Then they can share the Schuler Press too.
I like it.
Capital raise while siting on two billion dollar pile of cash... ?
What for?
WS vacations?
Analists golden parachutes?
What for?
WS vacations?
Analists golden parachutes?
Sean Wagner
Member
This just in from Breakers' Bulletin "The Daily Damage":
New "Driving Score" indicator on Teslas great news for us - many people distracted to the point of obliviousness.
That was reassuring indeed - still don't want a reissue of the pricing-and-vehicle-menu roller coaster. Now expecting the "impromptu" S&X interior upgrade. It would have been beneficial to roll it all into one cohesive and easily communicated plan that didn't make it look like the wheels were coming off. Only the steering is meant to go! After the store hither-and-tither and surprise discovery of the overseas wave, which is mainly a good problem to have. I had hoped, given Elon's stated earlier intent, that the epic rushes would already have been consigned to history. They cost a lot.
Alrightee. Since so much well structured and intelligent comment-cum-sound-analysis I much appreciate has been proffered, I felt that could be brought up once more and hopefully left behind.
I earlier wrote that the Model Y would be a really big thing globally [Tesla's projected numbers support that], and think that's when the rest of the industry will actually reach full alertness. Quite a few participants are still visibly somnolent or rubbing their eyes. Big companies can sometimes see the train wreck coming and just plod on and on and on, because formalized responsibilities have become ritualized, paychecks keep on arriving, and expensive decisions will often wait another day.
Which is why VW has taken quite a big first step out of the comfort zone, in my humble opinion. Toes still testing, and egged on by those ruthless Eurocrats so surprisingly unyielding, it must be added. The old equilibrium is fading, and noone quite knows where things will settle. Never mind GM trying to tie Rivian in a knot - they ought to know the electric genie is out.
Tesla as an excellent problem solving machine and relentless weaver of progress in mobility is the vanguard. Is there any other company that size so efficient at transmuting relatively small amounts of capital into globally attractive products redefining the tech state of the art, challenging long held paradigms, and aimed at individual consumers, all in pursuit of a very clear goal?
In a game of musical chairs, it's kind of nice to be the fiddler [always recognizing outside events will have a real impact].
It helps that oil is high too, while GF3 will offer some reprieve from the intentionally destructive current trade drama.
So, any interesting observations in the chat last night? No way I can catch up with all this now, lol
Lightweight!
Disagree! This is exactly the kind of edge case and driver intervention that will be captured by Tesla and used to train the NN. Inherently these kind of events will make FSD better exponentially. According to Karpathy they can now go out to the fleet and ask for all of these types of cases and NN is improved by one iteration.
Safety. Can't afford to risk the company against adverse events.
BTW, has anyone posted this yet?
Credit: 微博
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yawhl, just 1250 comments in the last 25 hrs.
Just WOW.Safety. Can't afford to risk the company against adverse events.
BTW, has anyone posted this yet?
Not sure I agree with this statement - Tesla are (we sincerely hope!!) ramping production, introducing MY, bringing the Semi and the Roadster to production, the mythical Pickup at some point, in theory they'll adapt their battery design with MXWL technology, which could lead to a dramatic increase in range, charging speeds and longevity. GF3 will come online, European GF4 will be announced, etc.
Regardless of any FSD/Robotaxi play, the above, ramping to first 500k, then 1m pa will cause the SP to rise and dramatically so as the $TSLAQ arguments will finally be exposed even for the most bearish investors.
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Are you expecting downgrades today? An SEC case update comes out this evening; I don't want to sit that out (#ReasonablenessPantsSummit2019
Expecting downgrades? Well let's see, which day of the week is it? Thursday, ah yes, Thursday we expect a downgrade, same as Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday...
Obviously a bad quarter and a consequence of the deliveries numbers already reported. I think Q1 was primarily impacted by the S/X retooling, Model 3 cell supply constraints, delivery hell and tax credit demand pull forward, as well as the price cuts (but these were compensated in part by cost reductions). I expect Q2 projected loss is primarily due to starting Model 3 leasing (lease sales not booked as upfront revenue), further S/X retooling production impact (15-20k sales?), and the much higher SR+ mix. I'm not too bothered by the weaker earnings, I don't really care about quarterly results volatility for growth focussed companies like Tesla/Amazon and there were several positive longer term developments too.
In particular:
In particular:
- Double digit quarter on quarter improvements to Model 3 labour content, warehousing and scrap. Suggests still strong momentum with cost savings through this year.
- Insurance product due in 1 month: Tesla's information advantage is huge here and they should be able to offer a very compelling and profitable product.
- S/X targeted back to full 100k production rate by the end of Q2 now retooling is done.
- Elon is willing to raise capital again. I think it would have been better to just take Saudi's offer of a $3-5bn investment last summer rather than going through all the considering privatisation mess, but better late than never to build a cash buffer for potential recession.
- Likely over $1bn bank line availability not drawn at end of Q1, in addition to the $1bn leasing line.
- 2-3 months before the first Autopilot upgrade specifically for the FSD computer.
- Finally smoothing out deliveries and ending the end of Q delivery rush. This should reduce delivery staff costs, significantly reduce peak quarterly working capital requirements (but increase quarter end working capital requirements), reduce staff stress and improve the customer delivery experience.
- Maxwell acquisition expected closed in May. Suggests they now have enough shares tendered.
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Pras
Member
Is this the full size of the factory or the first phase?
Still seems too big already. Tesla should be worried that in no way we can tool the whole factory in a similar speed!!!! Good problem to have.
On capital do we know how much of the $500m of bank loan is already drawn and if that how much will be spent on building vs tooling? Any guesses?
This is just Phase 1 of GF3. No, we have no clue how much of the loan is drawn down.
I love how, from the looks of it, in under a week there should be some parts of the factory with enough roof and walls around them that they'd be effectively weathertight (at least against blowing rain, though not wind). Hope Tesla doesn't wait for every last bit of the factory to be closed off before they start work on the inside. Doubt they will
bdy0627
Active Member
Yes, and obviously the deliveries to confirm demand supports the production. The stock is likely to remain weak until the market is comfortable that demand is not an issue. There is just too much uncertainty around that right now for this stock to climb back up. If we don't see any moves by Tesla over Q2 to pull more demand levers, and signs suggest solid production and deliveries, that will help. Ultimately, I think you are right that it will come down to the deliveries report after Q2. However, I have a hard time seeing us stay in this downward wedge trading pattern all the way until July. It's already been since mid December 2018. On the other hand, what else will break us up out of this trend? A big buyer will obviously do it, but will they come in before the demand uncertainty has cleared?
Just needs a final coat of paintSafety. Can't afford to risk the company against adverse events.
BTW, has anyone posted this yet?
Credit: 微博
Plus the fake "Panasonic freezes investment in Tesla" story - how much did that drop us without a commensurate recovery?
This is the problem with the FUD and BS, it takes a percentage off the SP, which we never get back.
Personally I'll still believe it when it happens. Is the gain so great? You need to be aware that the short interest doubled when the bid was announced, so even if it fell-though now and the SP dropped 50%, those positions still need to be covered, so might go back up again.
Not and advice.
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