Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

I get your point, but it's more complex than that. If the investors get fed up with the volatility (read: unwarranted SP drops) of the company, they start selling, dropping the price lower. Workers compensation is partly in stock equity, and for them seeing the stock price drop when they're busting their asses is demoralising, and that's again bad for the company. Severe SP drops can ultimately lead to the company becoming insolvent, artificially so but still. And so the way operations are run is just as important as the cutting-edge technology employed by the company, the level of talent and the drive of the man in charge. It's a package deal, and all parts are important.

It’s not more complex. If investors don’t want to invest, Tesla goes back to being a private company. Employees will continue to have stock options. Elon be happy camper. Onward and upward.

 

[EVNow]

Unfortunately, they're getting data from bad human driving, and then the data is being evaluated by bad human drivers.

I watched Karpathy's presentation again.

He specifically mentions that they know all examples can't be used. They specifically use only good driving examples to train - which he said is automated. This was around path prediction. Also, Musk specifically notes that there are a million edge cases you can never get by simulation and need real data. This is not just about object recognition, but behavior as well. So definitely he understands the complexity.

Here is my prediction. The things they'll actually find difficult are the ones we haven't thought about. Not some of the things we have discussed like construction zone (he specifically showed and talked about that, for eg.) or narrow drivable areas.

One thing I didn't appreciate before is that NN works on video i.e. it can compare multiple frames and make inferences and predictions. They can construct a 3D world using just camera (and radar).

BTW, here is an explained video of the Tesla demo video, with zooming - interesting to see all the stuff they are recognizing and showing on the screen. BTW, this is a UK guy, so lots of "noise" in this video.

 

[Fred42]

I thought I heard during the call they were on track for record April deliveries.....

Correct. And they meant worldwide. Inside EVs only reports US deliveries.

 

[EVNow]

Severe SP drops can ultimately lead to the company becoming insolvent

Actually a severe drop will make it very easy for Musk to take the company private. Currently it is very expensive to take it private.

A big drop is only problematic for a company with little future, hardly any unique products or technology - like Chrysler or Sears.

 

[Causalien]

Actually a severe drop will make it very easy for Musk to take the company private. Currently it is very expensive to take it private.

A big drop is only problematic for a company with little future, hardly any unique products or technology - like Chrysler or Sears.

You know. Today I looked at Microsft's 1T market cap. Then I look at TSLA's 43bil. Something doesn't compute there.

MSFT, can basically spend 5% of its shares and buy out TSLA completely???

 

[sparcs]

Status Report – #44 in United States Securities and Exchange Commission v. Musk (S.D.N.Y., 1:18-cv-08865) – CourtListener.com

looks like good news to me. Seems like a relatively short extension and most of it is over the weekend.

 

[Remus]

You know. Today I looked at Microsft's 1T market cap. Then I look at TSLA's 43bil. Something doesn't compute there.

MSFT, can basically spend 5% of its shares and buy out TSLA completely???

Surely missed the day when I buy MSFT at 25.

 

[JRP3]

What reagents/compounds are used in "... technology developed by Finnish company Crisolteq, Fortum ...[uses for]...chemical precipitation methodology that allows these minerals to be recovered and delivered to battery manufacturers for use in new batteries?

No idea.

Existing {un-advanced?} technology has relied on Pyrometallurgy

Since you mentioned Umicore:

The Umicore pyro-metallurgical phase converts the batteries into 3 fractions:

• An alloy, containing the valuable metals Cobalt, Nickel and Copper designed for the downstream hydro-metallurgical process.

In the subsequent hydro-metallurgical process, the alloy is further refined so the metals can be converted into active cathode materials for the production of new rechargeable batteries.

Our recycling process

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Uhhh. This is the worst. This basically confirms the downward channel will continue.

Worst case scenario for every outcome. Now we move on to the next grim rule of investing. Bad news comes in triplets.

Not if your in for the long run. Hardest thing in the world to do sometimes is doing nothing. Sit tight and stop watching the stock price.

Yoga anyone?

Dan

 

[Causalien]

Not if your in for the long run. Hardest thing in the world to do sometimes is doing nothing. Sit tight and stop watching the stock price.

Yoga anyone?

Dan

I am in bed from being punched one time too hard in Muay Thai. So there's nothing I can do but watch stock price.

 

[Singuy]

Surely missed the day when I buy MSFT at 25.

Hopefully some young person 10 years from now could say the same about "wished I could buy Tesla when it was in the 240s".

 

[capster]

I don't short stocks, dont have the stomach for it.
Tesla investor, looking to re-up, 247 is taunting me.
(Holding out for a report on SEC, midnight is the deadline, i am told)

But thanks anyway!
*
VW has committed something like $70 billion to EVs
Every company is trying to get there, and having issues.
TSLA has been there, done that, has working solutions

It is a major opportunity for them,
and a way for tesla to secure the future.
To stabilize, execute.
Breathe

Depends on the structure of the deal,
and likely how much control Elon would have.
How much tech to share, network/FSD/Supercharging
He has what they need.

Partnership, vs a buyout.

Didn't mean to call you out as a short (and, to quibble, don't think I did quite ), though I do think your position advances the real short hypothesis: Tesla can be stopped with enough money (and again, pretty sure they can't be).

As for VW, I distrust their intentions, disbelieve their numbers, doubt their rectitude, and dismiss their ability to deliver innovation. Severe I know, but there it is. Of course, this is only based on my own experience of merely a decade and a bit working in automotive R&D (though not VW) and also VW's past and current public record.

The static stability a legacy OEM might offer is a recipe to slow or kill Tesla. Sure, sure, there are some deals that could be done, but the opportunity (and emotional) costs are probably too steep to justify most.

Tesla has been maintaining dynamic stability, which is what they need at their speed. They're breathing just fine (though I suppose who doesn't need to work on theirs?).

As for execution? Seriously? Elon could walk on water and people would complain about splashing. As for me, I'll take it.

 

[anthonyj]

Teslas have 8 cameras running on their cars at all times. Why can’t they partner with Google for StreetView? Pics of my street are 5 years old on Google, would be nice to get updates. Customers can opt out of sending info to Google of course. Idk just an idea

 

[svp6]

Correct. And they meant worldwide. Inside EVs only reports US deliveries.

I know. But Europe is pretty good on this forum here. Not sure where I can find the China / other non-European country deliveries.

 

[Ggusev]

Hopefully some young person 10 years from now could say the same about "wished I could buy Tesla when it was in the 240s"

I think this is rare case when someone buys and holds for decades or so. Having met and spoke with about two thousands traders, I know only one who bought shitloads of Gazprom stock in 1994 and never sold, when that person died in 2007 he had left close to 20kk$ which he made from about 15k$ invested. That was literally unique case in my observation.

I once bought 100BTC for 100 and sold it for 230 thinking I had a great profit Never had guts to buy bitcoin again.

 

[Navin]

Posit: since Elon is friends with founders of Google and fellow billionaires - maybe he can get Google to buy a minority stake in Tesla?
Google could help them launch their insurance business, sure up cash, and give them lots of horsepower (in terms of captail) to help sustain their mission to advance sustainable energy. WAYMO could be salvaged into Tesla....

Google could also help Tesla with some free advertising - they know a think or two about that...

Man - how cool would this be...

LARRY PAGE: I Would Rather Give My Billions To Elon Musk Than Charity

 

[Ggusev]

Teslas have 8 cameras running on their cars at all times. Why can’t they partner with Google for StreetView? Pics of my street are 5 years old on Google, would be nice to get updates. Customers can opt out of sending info to Google of course. Idk just an idea

Tesla cameras don't have necessary resolution to make HD streetview for google.

 

[RobStark]

Guys let’s be honest or at least open to the idea that the Model Y, generally speaking, if you ask most ppl, does not look good.

I agree, Model Y is not a good looking vehicle.

I would still likely buy one in this price class for the extreme utility/practicality.

 

[brian45011]

No idea.

Since you mentioned Umicore:

Our recycling process

The Umicore processes may be better with NiMH and/or other Li-Ion formulations than NCA such as LiFePO4 or LiMn2O4.

Whoever solves the recovery-reuse technology for high Ni/Co separations will be valued similarly to the first FSD enterprise.

 

[RobStark]

I think the Y looks good for a CUV.

The CUV architecture does not really lend itself to good looks though...

Model Y "looks good" for an "aerodynamic CUV." Which is really an MPV/wagon.

They could've made it look much better. Sacrificing some Cd. And range.