Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

I don't know what the S/X inventory number is. There has been speculation that they probably won't do the full unwind in 1 quarter, so probably more realistic to expect about 20k-25k vehicles in transit or inventory at the end of Q2. Doing the entire unwind in 1 quarter might be too much.

I think it would be too painful to cashflow. Going up from 3K (2907) to 10K (10600) inventory-in-transit cost them $809 million dollars in cashflow.

(I'll be honest, I can't quite reconcile that with the value of the cars. I think maybe almost half of it is parts inventory buildup?)

Think about how much it's going to cost in cash to move inventory up to 30K.

Much of the inventory cash drain can be covered by warehouse line increases, but I believe they only loan 85% of value (this is from memory, Brian could probably correct me), so it's still pulling a lot in cash, plus of course the interest payments.

I expect and hope to see inventory increases again at the end of Q2, but don't be surprised if they only go up to 18000 inventory-in-transit during Q2. They may not even get to 25K in transit at the end of Q3. Hopefully they'll be in steady state by the end of Q4, though.

 

[anthonyj]

Earlier today, Paul Graham (founder of Y Combinator) shared some interesting tweets about Tesla.

Paul Graham on Twitter

Paul Graham on Twitter

Paul Graham on Twitter

I decided to share my thoughts regarding these tweets and Tesla's software advantage in the following video:

Nice video. I think we now know who is joining Tesla’s board

 

[Singuy]

Do do you think Elon's new approach to Model Y manufacturing at Fremont vs GF1 as a cost saving measure due to such an unexpected back Q1?

I would imagine GF1 would cost more but ramp up much faster than freeing up storage space in the back of the factory for Model Y.

 

[Singuy]

Earlier today, Paul Graham (founder of Y Combinator) shared some interesting tweets about Tesla.

Paul Graham on Twitter

Paul Graham on Twitter

Paul Graham on Twitter

I decided to share my thoughts regarding these tweets and Tesla's software advantage in the following video:

Totally agree. Just looking at how they implemented sentry mode and dog mode really makes the case for how much ahead Tesla is as a software company. I was telling my wife how Tesla software engineers are really thoughtful after discovering that you can't roll down the windows when dog mode is on to prevent dogs from escaping. How smart sentry mode ended up being was way beyond my expectations. All this while I can't freaken find the equalizer in my BMW X3 loaner. Man idrive is a POS (and it's suppose to be one of the "best").

 

[srius]

People have complained about the momentary loss of power during the cutover from grid power to battery power during outages. Could this be eliminated with a fairly small number of ultracapacitors?

Powerwall is definitely in the position where "higher price, higher quality" is the way to go -- it seems to be perpetually cell-starved and has a very long waiting list, so working down to the mass market isn't practical right now.

Any ideas on why Tesla doesn't source the Powerwall cells outside (Samsung, LG, ...)? Panasonic is supply constrained, so there are no reasons for them to block other suppliers. Tesla could raise the price if cells from other suppliers are more expensive. Tesla is still nowhere close to meeting the demands - four years after unveiling Powerwall. It's just another item on the list that Tesla executed very poorly.

 

[MP3Mike]

Any ideas on why Tesla doesn't source the Powerwall cells outside (Samsung, LG, ...)? Panasonic is supply constrained, so there are no reasons for them to block other suppliers.

Tesla has been using Samsung cells in it's Energy products... And they said they were working on qualifying other manufacturers as well...

There isn't a limitless supply of cells on the market. (As Audi and Jaguar are finding out.)

 

[BioSehnsucht]

View attachment 402312 View attachment 402310 View attachment 402311

In lots of areas, instead of vertical it’s hung horizontal; and instead of being perpendicular at intersections I’ve seen them criss cross on wires/cables.

I’ve seem both types in Houston area. The one below confused me for about 10 seconds.

I can see the diagonally strung across intersection lights being confusing, perhaps. Though horizontal can't be that uncommon throughout the world?

 

[K3jSe7Llp7]

1. I understand your first point but there are subtleties, including supporting the stock price, and part ownership of what I care about. Putting my wallet where my mouth is, adding my name to the list.
2. I handily beat not only inflation but the indexes. Right now, for example, much of my non-tesla holdings are pure play alt energy yieldcos which pay among the highest dividends available, are defensive utilities, and have appreciated by 22-40% ytd believe it or not, which obviously won't last. I've even made money on tesla, setting aside the current unrealized loss, by trading a small fraction.
3. Your 'more prudent investors' must be the ones who sell me their stock when the price is low and buy it back when the price is high?
4. I'm sorry you had some misfortune on the market. I sure haven't always won.

It might almost look to some like a tip in bullet 2. However this gives me the opportunity to quote our leader, 'the ship has sailed.'

 

[PANN]

Is it possible to find out the top-10 Tesla shortsellers by size of position?

I've been thinking about it recently. Who are they? They want to destroy Tesla/Elon and all of us bulls so badly, we don't even know who they are? that's not right.

My rough estimates: of the total ~30 million shares shorted, there seem like 20+ million shares Hardcore Whale Shorts, roughly ~$6B I guess -- these short positions probably belong to 2-3 quiet whale shorts, they are the master and mother of all shorts. They are persistent, never cover, no swing trading, just hanging on the SP forever. Who are they?

I think any short who is active on twitter / media is not the whale. We can also rule out Chanos and Einhorn. Chanos and Einhorn are more like speakers of the shorts, but the size of their funds and short positions make them more like sharks, not whales.

 

[PANN]

Looking at this chart, I think we don't have to worry too much about Q3 sales, i.e. after Europe and China clear backlog orders. Smaller sedans are much more popular in Europe and China. If USA can do so well in Q1, no need to worry about Europe and China in Q3 and beyond.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Wow latest Gigafactory 3 shot

Global Times on Twitter

 

[CorneliusXX]

Not so new as you can see. From January. But have been lurking TMC for years and following TSLA since 2012.

Just got me over the edge when a member of the forum said that the 700mUSD was due to 700mUSD addition to inventory and nobody corrected that for good half an hour.

And now can't stop rolling when I am in it already.

While I agree the inventory statement is incorrect (that poster doesn't seem to be particularly familiar with financial statements), virtually nothing you have said has been truthful and appears to be attempting to derail the conversation here.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla's new mega-service-centre in Norway is nearly done:

Bjørn got to see the inside (but not film it). He said it's "fricking huge", and reminded him more of a factory than a service centre. That's... a really interesting concept. It sounds almost more like they're planning to do "assembly line"-style repairs. I've never heard of such a thing before, but I can totally picture it, at least for disassembly and reassembly of major components. Model 3 is designed to make major systems easy to take out and put back - for example, here's how you take out the entire rear drive unit and wheel assembly - only four bolts (plus some cables/plumbing)!

Bjørn also said that service in Norway has greatly improved. For example, he damaged his brand-new Model 3 by driving into a snowbank. Replacement parts arrived after just three days. The only delays are at the body shop, which aren't Tesla-related delays.

 

[Alexander Grea]

While I agree the inventory statement is incorrect (that poster doesn't seem to be particularly familiar with financial statements), virtually nothing you have said has been truthful and appears to be attempting to derail the conversation here.

Examples? If nothing I have said has been truthful then it would be very easy to provide 2-3 examples from my post. The only example you actually provided was admitting that I was correct in at least one of my posts.

Accusing somebody of lying publicly without backing it up is not the best tone.

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Global Top 20 - March 2019

 

[PANN]

Tesla’s Autonomy Day, the Stock, Short Sellers and More
(http://www.hamidshojaee.com/post/184522555004/teslas-autonomy-day-the-stock-short-sellers-and)

Not sure whether this has been posted here, worth reading twice by every bull

 

[KarenRei]

Interesting - was just watching a video of a handicapped person driving a Tesla for the first time, using hand controls:

One thing that never occurred to me before was how huge of a deal Summon would be. To get in and out if you're in a wheelchair, you have to have the door all the way open and a lot of space between you and the next car. Often all of the handicapped spaces are taken, and even if you pick a parking space where there's plenty of space when you arrive, there's no guarantee that there will be plenty of space by the time you get back. But Summon entirely eliminates this problem.

 

[pyromatter]

Tesla Looks to Regain Its Luster in Solar Energy by Slashing Prices

"The company plans to announce on Tuesday that it has started selling solar panels and related equipment for up to 38 percent less than the national average price by standardizing systems and requiring customers to order them online. Tesla executives said these changes should put to rest concerns that the company, better known for its luxury electric cars, has neglected its residential solar business."

 

[Singer3000]

I was able to go "hands free" by tying a plastic shopping bag with a bottle of water in it on the wheel.

You should be stripped of your driving license for endangering other road users

 

[Alexander Grea]

Tesla Looks to Regain Its Luster in Solar Energy by Slashing Prices

Good move. Even if they lose money on Solar, the revenue growth will show that maybe there is some potential in TE and it will be another growth story for the SP.