Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

The best solution would be to see a few days of nice climbing, because when volumes are high and the stock price is rising, the shorts tend to lack the horsepower to reverse.

Yes, I hope 231 is the lowest we'll see this year. BTW, in the last 2 years, after ER when the SP falls, it has hit the minimum within 4 trading days.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I’d prefer to pick my horn sound from Fart Mode.

Out : ring tones
In : horn tones

 

[generalenthu]

Some deers bears got caught staring at the headlights today

Regarding the margin loan, my theory is Elon might have liquidated some of his spaceX non voting stock. SpaceX valuation was consistently increasing, and it has dual class shares.

 

[SPadival]

What time was that call at?

No idea.. @DisruptionRe ?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Regarding the margin loan, my theory is Elon might have liquidated some of his spaceX non voting stock. SpaceX valuation was consistently increasing, and it has dual class shares.

My theory is he found gold in a boring tunnel.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Sooo GF 3 is almost done..lol.

RayTesla on Twitter

Perhaps this is obvious, but it seems that roof is faster to lay when you have more roof to stand on and work from. They came home fast.

 

[Buckminster]

Climate national emergency decision overshadowed in UK by minister sacking and now now local elections.
UK Parliament declares climate emergency
Combined with London emissions zone, UK getting fairly serious now.
Brexit not in the news - EU will go ballistic soon for lack of progress!

 

[30seconds]

the knee jerk reaction, at this point, is to discount his statements/claims

on one hand, is he diverting attention from the production problems? panasonic, s/x changeover, 3 delivery overseas, jockeying for position with a board and proxy vote coming up, with stipulations that could jeopardize his control over the direction of the company (not immediately but over time)...

i don’t know.

is this one of those times when the sheep cried wolf so much that we ignore the elephant in the room? doubtful, but
what am i missing?

all the other bs from the last 16 months aside, because that’s really what it’s about...the delay of 3, the meltdown on journalists (warranted), the pedo guy (probably not warranted, but he was kinda pricky), ‘secured’, 420, etc etc the whole ron burgundy 50% of the time i’m right all the time spiel...

is he throwing a fat pitch down the pipe that we aren’t seeing because we’ve been blinded by his nonsense, compounded by the shitstorm of media bias surrounding him?

why would he be so adamant about this? why did he say they’re committing all of their resources to FSD towards the end of autonomy day? was that a misstatement? or did he really mean what he said, catching even the analyst asking the question off guard.

maybe we’re thinking about this wrong, as in the car must drive itself and deal with every single drivers scenario right off the bat in order for it to generate value

i dunno. i’m perplexed. this is really crazy that he’s doubling, tripling down on this, when to the regular joe, we know that car isn’t driving me from my garage to my work garage any time soon, especially enduring assholish behavior by other drivers the whole time... where i live, it’s epidemic

what the hell are we missing here? why is he this confident about it? why didn’t they show a demonstration video, aside from just the people there experiencing it? that was disappointing to me. is it some sort of surprise? did he not want to give away prop secrets until they had a better handle on it? then why squeeze it in before earnings?

maybe i’m overthinking.
it’s either evil genius the way he’s playing this hand, or desperation. and that scares the hell out of me, honestly. or maybe he’s just trying to pump it a bit due to the cap raise?? and all the other stream of consciousness thoughts i typed out are just nonsense haha.


just a thought. still long and strong.

Go test drive the very best autopilot-like technology in competition from any car company. Take a look at their internet boards to see how their customers review it and use it.

Then do the same with Tesla.

I can’t even quantitate the difference in terms of either absolute utility or pace of improvement

 

[CaliBear1]

The voice recognition in the steering wheel doesn't work at all for me due to my accent. Perhaps it needs some kind on NN programming too

 

[powertoold]

To this day, AP is still struggling with this. FSD next year ya right:

 

[JusRelax]

I know it's been mentioned but I think i1tesla's analysis of the fsd video released by Tesla is extremely informative and is definitely worth the 10 minute watch. Tesla has really done a good job with the graphical user interface! Also notice halfway through the video he points out four icons: camera, charging, microphone, and steering wheel. I believe these are in preparation for robotaxi as follows and will be viewable (and most likely toggle-able) from the owner's app as well:

1. Camera - when highlighted, the interior camera is recording
2. Charging - when highlighted, car is driving itself to a supercharger to auto recharge with snake charging
3. Microphone - when highlighted, interior sound is recording
4. Steering wheel - when highlighted, maybe the occupant has taken control of driving the vehicle?

I think Elon is VERY serious and truly believes robotaxis are coming next year!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

Heh WTF china. Is that bigger than GF1?

I thought I heard Elon say it was going to be the size of GF1 and the Fremont factory put together.

 

[MXWing]

Not to vaguebook but Fred is dumb AF.

I'm sick of him and too tired to explain why, but just accept my word that he is a self serving no talent ass clown.

I think a non moronic Canadian will know to just buy the SR+ upfront and be done with it.

 

[Cobbler]

To this day, AP is still struggling with this. FSD next year ya right:

Oooh my god! I'm going to sell all my Tesla shares now!

What should investors do with this video?

/s

 

[kyzhk]

Oooh my god! I'm going to sell all my Tesla shares now!

What should investors do with this video?

/s

Judging tesla FSD progress with current production release is moronic given pace of improvement. The neural net is probably still the version used for AP2 hardware.

 

[oneday]

Yes, I hope 231 is the lowest we'll see this year. BTW, in the last 2 years, after ER when the SP falls, it has hit the minimum within 4 trading days.

View attachment 403532

You seem pretty good at pulling up historical stock price data.

Any chance you could pull up the SP following equity offerings? Perhaps the day and the following couple fridays after?

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm stuck by this exponential argument. EM mentioned it in AI podcast but was not challenged.

First of all - what do we really mean by exponential improvement ? Are we talking about # of scenarios solved, % of disengagements (reduction), # of edge cases taken care of ?

Since each edge case needs to be manually solved (yes they can collect data in an automated way, but lot of manual time is still involved in figuring out the edge case, coding it to send the filters to the fleet, once the examples come back - they need to be labelled, heuristics may need to change etc) - that can only be done linearly. The team may gain efficiency because of experience, better tooling etc, but still linearly.

So, how does the driving improve exponentially ? This is an important question because EM's confidence comes from this assumption.

So 'exponential' is a bit of a hyperbole as obviously there's limiting factors, such as the size of the universe. But it's definitely faster than linear, and I see three major areas where this really matters:

1)

There's one fundamental metric that is driving the improvements, it's the growing Tesla fleet - which will be growing exponentially for the next 3 years and longer (we hope). Both the NN training data that can be received and the quality of the training data scales exponentially.

The important 'edge cases' still have to be created manually, but once created I believe a 'campaign' of training data collection can probably be launched again with much lower costs and overhead - and the results will thus scale up with fleet size.

I.e. the edge cases that they are specifically training the networks for will semi-automatically scale up with fleet size.

2)

Another part where the exponential fleet helps is the disengagement summaries. While it doesn't result in direct training data such as images, it sure comes with GPS coordinates and other metrics that allow Tesla to identify unknown edge cases or weird spots on the road network that Tesla vehicles encounter.

I.e. if the fleet's size increases exponentially, so does its statistical sampling ability and its 'sensitivity' for edge cases increase exponentially as well.

3)

Finally, an exponentially growing fleet will drive new FSD revenue as well. Large parts of Autopilot are in reality prototype FSD functionality, packaged in driver assistance and convenience features. These do sell the cars, they sell upgrades - and all of that income stream scales with fleet size.

So even if some of the NN training capacity doesn't scale up with fleet size (we still have only one Andrej Karpathy today, as we had two years ago ), there's a fleet-proportional revenue stream plus increasing take-rates of the FSD option that will finance that part.

 

[Dr. K]

I just had a question on a probable future scenario, curious on peoples thoughts. With the success of FSD, we are all talking about Tesla vehicles being able to create passive income of up to $30000 a year. This would undoubtedly increase the market value of the vehicles as soon as they are bought from the company, right?

So a model 3 costing $42K with FSD, would immediately have a resale value of way higher than $42K as soon as it has been bought. What would stop people with a lot of capital, buying all the vehicles and immediately reselling them for $$$? Will the development of FSD and perhaps a monopoly on the market make tesla increase the price of their cars significantly?

 

[T@oo]

Discussed many times. My take: Tesla stops selling cars

I just had a question on a probable future scenario, curious on peoples thoughts. With the success of FSD, we are all talking about Tesla vehicles being able to create passive income of up to $30000 a year. This would undoubtedly increase the market value of the vehicles as soon as they are bought from the company, right?

So a model 3 costing $42K with FSD, would immediately have a resale value of way higher than $42K as soon as it has been bought. What would stop people with a lot of capital, buying all the vehicles and immediately reselling them for $$$? Will the development of FSD and perhaps a monopoly on the market make tesla increase the price of their cars significantly?

Discussed many times. My take: Tesla stops selling cars to average Joe.

 

[Pras]

Now that the capital raise is done, I do want to express my disappointment with Elon and most importantly Deepak Ahuja (good riddance in retrospect).

They knew the situation was so tight that at some point in Q1 they may have dipped below a $1B in net cash, maybe not, but what would have happened if the 50% delivery in 10 day had failed?!

Clearly a fk-up by the cfo, (Elon should be blamed too), who couldn’t prevent this risk and instead allowed for $920m debt to be repaid in cash. Maybe they were counting on it to be converted? If so, very naive. The real losers are the existing shareholders (including Elon) who lost value from the ill-timed more dilutive capital raise.

Some previous big shareholders fared well, Fidelity and trowe sold in March or before. But more importantly the shorts benefited in many possible ways.

• They are able to now hedge by buying convertibles more affordably.
• Cover some of their shorts using newly available 3.1 million stocks.
• Most importantly they can cover cheaply as many Longs including Gerber K and some on this forum had to sell their holdings under capitulation.

Clearly, Elon/Deepak fkd-up on this bad planning and I think it costed Tesla SP $50-$75 near term pressure and 0.5-1.5b In net value loss. In the scheme of $500 billion market cap potential this may not seem a lot but, hey, who has seen the future?

Now I suspect the SP won’t recover to $300 mark in the near term unless Q2 becomes a big hit quarter on P&D. Knowing that Tesla under delivers, it is likely it will not. Would love to be wrong here.

I am a big Tesla bull, but very annoyed at this issue. Zach seems too young, and I am worried, given the CFO should be the most conservative guy in the company, that Zach’s relative youth could be a negative factor(?)

I wish we can ask this to Elon and Zach and see if they learned from it. At least they sucked it up and decided to raise the capital. Better safe than sorry.