Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anthonyj]

My understanding is (correct me if I'm wrong), that the new shares issued for the capital raise are delivered today at $243 price to the buyers. So what is the expectation for those ?

Are the new buyers going to be long holders ? Probably not all.
If some of them are bought with the goal of short term profit, at what point can we expect them to be dumped on the market ?
Immediately today as the SP is more than 5% above their cost ?
Wait until they make a 10% gain ~$267 and then start selling them at that point as limit order ?

I would guess the last option and so I expect a new resistance at 267.

Why would they sell at $267 when they can sell at $380~ in a month or two? Remember, in life there are only two guarantees: TSLA to $250 and TSLA to $380

 

[Fact Checking]

Incorrect, there's is no possibility of a cross license, Tesla has literally 0 autonomous related patents. ZERO. While mobileye has hundreds.

That's not how cross-licensing works: the point of patent cross-licensing is usually to avoid litigation. In such a cross-licensing scheme Tesla's EV patents might be useful to MobilEye, should MobilEye's products be used in other manufacturer's EVs.

Hugely incorrect, Tesla represented like 0.1% of Mobileye's income. Mobileye chips are in over 27 million cars.

That's today, I was talking about the situation 3+ years ago, when Tesla broke up with MobilEye, Tesla was a major customer to MobilEye's products - in fact no other carmaker used MobilEye's technology to such an extent as Tesla.

Let's recap the arguments so far:

• You posted an unfair, apples to oranges comparison between a 7 nm MobilEye chip that is planned to be mass produced in 2021, and a 14 nm chip from Tesla which taped out last year and is in mass production today. Yet even in that unfair comparison Tesla's per watt performance was on par with MobilEye's, as @ReflexFunds pointed it out.
• MobilEye founder's earliest, broadest vision patent expired last year already.
• But the whole patent threat is overrated: since Tesla owns key EV patents, if MobilEye sues then their automotive customers that use MobilEye products will be exposed to Tesla's counterclaims.
• Tesla has unparalleled source of training data from hundreds of thousands of vehicles, MobilEye doesn't. Tesla can train and test their networks over a very large, OTA connected fleet, MobilEye cannot. 27 million products sold are meaningless if most of them are dumb driver assist features with no automated training feedback channel.

 

[Zero CO2]

bloomberg headline:
bmw car unit posts first loss in decade:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Innovators dilemma is kicking for BMW.... i think auto analysts are underestimating the difficulty of this transition to BEVs for the incumbents... this will be very interesting to see which companies survive the transition

 

[AndyH]

Wrong again, Tesla's FSD chip has 2 NN accelerators, with a total of 72 TOPs and TDP of around 100 watts.

Wow, it seems like you are literally just making stuff up.
The comparison Intel made with Nvidia is of a single EyeQ5 versus a single Xavier chip.
EyeQ5 is 24 TOPS on 10 watts, Xavier is 30 TOPS on 30 watts.

TOPS is an uncertain indication of actual real world NN performance. But if we were to compare TOPS and TDP then the FSD computer (144 TOPS as quoted by Tesla) has similar performance as a solution with 6 Eyeq5s. Mayor difference is that the FSD computer is already being delivered in cars while the Eyeq5 won't be delivered in cars until 2020. Tesla can have a million FSD computers in the real world collecting data at that point. Time will tell what that data is worth.

The configuration and numbers @ReflexFunds used was from Intel's presentation of Eyeq5 which is fair.

 

[lklundin]

Huh, the official Tesla twitter is actually entertaining... when did this happen?

Maybe Elon Musk stole the Tesla Twitter account's password, because Tesla monitors his own twitter account too closely ?



This one has Elon Musk written all over it:
Tesla on Twitter

 

[Remus]

New service center just 45 miles from me is opening in Bloomington Ill.

Before closest was in Indy over 130 miles away.

Home of state farm, hmm...

 

[lklundin]

One thing I really like Elon is as famously impatient as he's with timeline, he seem to be extremely patient with safety related stuff, never rushing to wow people with features that's not very safe.

A good friend of mine, who has been designing chips for longer than Elon Musk has been working, watched Bannon's Investor's Autonomy Day presentation, and the one thing that impressed him was how quickly that chip (with its considerable size) had made it to from design to production.

So clearly Elon Musk's capacity for getting complex things done has to be much more than him just stressing people with deadlines, because that typically does not lead to well-designed solutions to complex problems.

Given the enormous interest there is among people to work for Elon Musk, part of it could be that he has an eye for picking those few people who can work at their best also when under continuous stress. For work that involves cognitive skills, I think few would qualify.

 

[PANN]

GM Cruise raises $1.15B at a $19B valuation from Softbank and Honda – TechCrunch

GM Cruise has raised another $1.15 billion in new equity from a group of investors that includes T. Rowe Price Associates, Honda, Softbank Vision Fund and its parent company GM as the self-driving vehicle company pushes to launch a commercial autonomous ride-hailing service this year.

This investment increases Cruise’s post-money valuation to $19 billion, inclusive of SoftBank’s previously announced investment commitment. Cruise has secured capital commitments totaling $7.25 billion in the past year, according to the company.

 

[MP3Mike]

Wrong again, Tesla's FSD chip has 2 NN accelerators, with a total of 72 TOPs and TDP of around 100 watts.

Wrong. The TDP is 72 watts and is for the entire FSD computer including two NN accelerators and everything else on the board.

 

[Remus]

Tesla has literally 0 autonomous related patents. ZERO. While mobileye has hundreds

Accenture was in patent troll business too. One of those patent is using GPS in cars for navigation. Another is an Internet based store front where you can sell stuff. No, they didn't get any money from anyone with those patents.

I wonder when you say you're gonna post NN model, whether you gonna post the architecture with hyper parameters including number of layers, dimensions connections etc, or you would include weights as well?

First, unless you're an industrial spy who should be arrested, how do you got those from both companies? And why would you give up all those spy work and post the results on a public forum?

Second, how should a human evaluate those things? Researchers evaluate them using, again large amount of labelled data. How do you suppose we do it?

 

[anthonyj]

Sheesh wtf happened to the stock? I’m sure it’s just a bear trap but damn

 

[lklundin]

Do you really think that of the three choices, go left, go right, go straight, it didn’t assess which path was clear? That’s not a corner case decision, it’s driving 101. Absolutely core.

Not only that, rather I feel absolutely certain (and maybe you do too) that at all times the FSD computer is computing which directions it could safely take - so in case something were to happen, it already knows exactly what options it has.

And unlike a human, its situational awareness has about 100 % uptime.

 

[ZeApelido]

Blader what cars is eye Q4 in? What level of Autonomy does it provide?

 

[PANN]

GM Cruise raises $1.15B at a $19B valuation from Softbank and Honda – TechCrunch

This is probably the reason for the pop pre-market, the valuation of Cruise is a clear indication of how much undervalued is TSLA.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sheesh wtf happened to the stock? I’m sure it’s just a bear trap but damn

WTF? Talking about the SP here in the FSD forum?! GTFO!

/S

 

[UncaNed]

My understanding is (correct me if I'm wrong), that the new shares issued for the capital raise are delivered today at $243 price to the buyers. So what is the expectation for those ?

Are the new buyers going to be long holders ? Probably not all.
If some of them are bought with the goal of short term profit, at what point can we expect them to be dumped on the market ?
Immediately today as the SP is more than 5% above their cost ?
Wait until they make a 10% gain ~$267 and then start selling them at that point as limit order ?

I would guess the last option and so I expect a new resistance at 267.

Isn't the last option totally arbitrary? Other than it happens to be 10%..., what's so special about 10%?

 

[lklundin]

Related: FCA's Maserati brand announced that it will never go all-electric. “This is a brand that needs combustion engines," said Al Gardner, head of Maserati North America. Sales were down 28% in 2018 and down about 40% in 2019Q1 — I'm not sure if that's for USA or global.

Maserati have received massive amounts of ridicule for this.

Fair enough.

But I think that their sales numbers and profit margins are such that they can probably survive on that strategy for much longer than a mass-market producer with low margins and no current BEV strategy.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Wrong. You need to do better research. EyeQ5 will be production ready Q1 2020 and series production for traditional automakers who have agreed to put it in specific models that will launch starting in 2021.

Wrong again. EyeQ5 is NOT just an NN accelerator and doesn't need to be built into a board with a cpu.

Wrong again, Tesla's FSD chip has 2 NN accelerators, with a total of 72 TOPs and TDP of around 100 watts.

Wrong again, stop doing shallow google searches. You are literally just making stuff up. The picture you saw of Intel Atom SOC, is one of the config of Mobileye's AV KIT. The Atom was supposed to run the RSS validation of the driving policy. Mobileye later settled with 3x EyeQ5 config with a separate backup board with another EyeQ5. A total of 4x EyeQ5, 96 TOPs at 40 watts

Wow, it seems like you are literally just making stuff up.
The comparison Intel made with Nvidia is of a single EyeQ5 versus a single Xavier chip.
EyeQ5 is 24 TOPS on 10 watts, Xavier is 30 TOPS on 30 watts.

2.4x increase, its literally basic math.

Why do you keep making stuff up? Its a theme in this thread i can see.
also Tesla's chip isn't even ASIL-D

They didn't need that to have a 2+ years lead in NN deployment. Which i will post a comparison which i made in Feb 2019 here later today. Also Mobileye is the only one crowdsourcing HD Map and drive-able trajectory data from millions of cars today.

An impressive % of your posts are gratingly rude and arrogant.

Tesla's FSD computer has 2 chips for 144 TOPs and is at 72Ws. Where do you get 100W TDP for a single chip?

Intel's atom CPU/EyeQ5 config is what they thought most appropriate to compare to Xavier last summer, and this is where the 1.6x tops/watt vs Xavier comes from. You are arguing with Intel's own press releases.

It looks like Intel does have another AV kit config which does not have the atom CPU, but I don't think they have disclosed the total power usage of this full system. Is there somewhere they have discussed this full system at length?

Mass production is surely what is relevant for a new product launch? You claimed the new chip "will be out" in 1Q20 which suggested this is when it gets launched into customer vehicles, I was just correcting you with Intel's own words that mass production is not due until March 2021.

(And i'll stop replying to FSD posts now, I promise!)

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Sheesh wtf happened to the stock? I’m sure it’s just a bear trap but damn

Get lost with all your foolish investor talk!

Anyone see if Ben Simmons is back dating that Jenner chick?

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Post-1Q-ocalypse it seems like we're back to the mid-morning dip pattern. These jerks are just printing money. We need some kind of regulatory body to change the way investing is done in the US.