Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maitri982]

Um, it's used pretty much all the time by everyone. What?


I don't think the USB cables are as big an issue, since you can just buy those from anyone, right?


Yes.

Why do people talk like panasonic is the only battery supplier forever? Musk will be sourcing batteries in china from chinese companies. This has been stated over and over.

if you want to debate how those firms will perform on supplying quality batteries at scale, then debate that, but dont debate whether Panasonic will be able to solve all the battery problems into 2020 for Tesla since no one ever said they would.

Also, Musk said things are back on track on GF battery production, so I am assuming that supply should be fine for Q2/Q3 for now.

 

[samppa]

So my broker listing says maxwell stock is untradeable. Does this mean the acquisition is through?

 

[SO16]

I've been investing heavily in TSLA since 2013. I'm currently down an insane amount in paper losses since 420 tweet. I'm starting to lose faith on TSLA being more than a $100 Billion company anytime soon. We've been told that TE would grow exponentially and be larger than auto since 2016. With battery cell shortage, I don't see how TE can grow significantly at this point for another several years. I do expect auto sales to continue to grow 50% per year, but that isn't enough. Full self driving needs to become a reality, and I bought into the hype and ordered a new Model S P100DL (no VIN after almost 3 weeks), but I'm becoming skeptical that we will even see real traffic light functionality this year. I admire Elon, but his predictions/timelines are useless, and have caused tremendous financial harm to believers like myself that trade based on what he says.

I invested quite a bit (for me) based on the 420 tweet. Then it dropped, but I held. The stock did come back in December after the 420 tweet. So I can’t still blame the 420 tweet for my paper losses. Only can blame myself for not selling in December. I had the sell ready to go and just had to click confirm. But...I didn’t.

 

[Tim S]

So my broker listing says maxwell stock is untradeable. Does this mean the acquisition is through?

I just placed a limit order to buy MXWL at $3.00 as a test and ETrade accepted it. (It was not filled obviously).

 

[Maitri982]

Yep...this is why they churn through cash...they have to execute on all the following and they all need money:

1) modify existing lines to support new features (new automation, updated cars like S/X refresh, etc)
2) add new lines for new cars
3) increase battery supply by building new gigafactories
4) add more superchargers around the world and upgrade existing ones to SC3
5) add more service centers around the world
6) invest in R&D on cell technology and other hard goods
7) invest in FSD development
8) build out software base including Tesla Network uber-like app.
9) support USB stick music playback

So they have lots of ways to burn cash and its a real balancing act on where/when to put money. So yes..some things will suffer for a while as there is no steady state yet for them. They are still innovating fast and introducing new product lines like Semi and Model Y and Truck. It's a very very tough business...especially since you have to built out your infrastructure for fueling and servicing the cars. Other auto makers don't have to worry so much about gas stations, they exist. And they don't worry about service that much, they let dealers take care of it. Tesla has bitten off a huge amount of things to tackle.

And I forgot to mention that whole solar and storage business that also needs cash, and frankly, isn't adding to the bottom line at all in the case of solar.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Just a quick comment from Sunny Southern CA.

It’s unbelievable to me how many Tesla’s I see here on a daily basis. If Tesla could sell cars around the rest of the US like they do here it would be fantastic. I just spent a month in Dallas last January and would spot one occasionally.... not sure what the rest of the country is like but the statistics I’ve seen show that a huge majority of their cars are sold here in CA.

Just a matter of time before it happens ... IMHO.

There are ALOT of Teslas in the Austin, North San Antonio, Central Texas and Metroplex areas. Strange for a state where Tesla sales are banned. There are alot Teslas in Texas.

 

[anthonyj]

So my broker listing says maxwell stock is untradeable. Does this mean the acquisition is through?

Bankwupt

 

[Nocturnal]

If it were me it would depend entirely on the distribution of my investment. Currently I'm ~97% in on $TSLA and if I had a windfall would currently put it in $TSLA, but with the intention of pulling out on any substantial upward movement and tossing it into ARKK. My reasoning is simple: unlike the bears I think $TSLA is so undervalued at this point that there will be an unpredictable surge upward. If I bought at $230 I'd probably sell it off somewhere around $300, but definitely not above $350. The goal isn't to maximize gains, but to realize profit and diversify.
@tivoboy instead.

I'm far more into TSLA than any prudent person should be. About 65%+. That said, I know the risk I'm taking. I have a career with a good income and where I will always be able to find work (knock on wood), I'm 39 so my retirement timeline is pretty far out, and as a knowledge worker I could work past retirement range if desired/needed. My downside risk couldn't destroy me financially, but I believe Tesla upside has the potential to transform my lifestyle (or just greatly accelerate retirement plans). As TSLA hits 400 and ticks up, I'll probably slowly reduce my exposure.

 

[andrewt3000]

We've been told that TE would grow exponentially and be larger than auto since 2016.

Who said that?

 

[M3Rider]

You're kidding, right? I use the 14-50 to charge every day at home, I use it when I go camping, and I use it at Bed and Breakfasts that have kindly put in a 14-50 so that EVs can charge. Eliminating the 14-50 is just a bad policy.

It's not eliminating. You just have to buy a $35 adapter that's no longer included if you want to use 14-50.

NEMA 14-50 adapter no longer included with vehicles

However, looking at https://www.getneocharge.com/products
who obviously intend to simplify EV charging (and remove electricians from the equation) based on re-using your dryer circuit, they convert 10-30 or 14-30 to 14-50 (which is a questionable move) and this seems targeting Tesla cars (and included adapter ).
They tell you to limit the power draw from the car and until you do that, the charging won't work (b/c the car thinks your circuit has the capacity of the adapter and tries to draw as much), so they block charging in their splitter.

Anyway, just a fun fact - seems this company that's in the process of ramping up has done some planning/designing based on this adapter and now it's gone.

There's still a custom option there, so you can order 14-30 -> 2 x 14-30, which makes more sense from electrical standpoint.

 

[Prunesquallor]

There are ALOT of Teslas in the Austin, North San Antonio, Central Texas and Metroplex areas. Strange for a state where Tesla sales are banned. There are alot Teslas in Texas.

Last count that was quoted to legislators (a few months ago) was 21,000.

 

[Drax7]

Just a quick comment from Sunny Southern CA.

It’s unbelievable to me how many Tesla’s I see here on a daily basis. If Tesla could sell cars around the rest of the US like they do here it would be fantastic. I just spent a month in Dallas last January and would spot one occasionally.... not sure what the rest of the country is like but the statistics I’ve seen show that a huge majority of their cars are sold here in CA.

Just a matter of time before it happens ... IMHO.

Miami Beach where I live is replete with Teslas

 

[mongo]

Unless Maxwell has some unannounced method to remove the liquid electrolyte from the cell their dry electrode manufacturing does not make a solid state cell. I see no explanation how their dry electrode manufacturing removes cobalt from cells. I've seen Jack's video, I don't remember him talking about Maxwell allowing solid state cells or cobalt free cells, maybe you could point out the specific parts in the video?

Yeah, not current tech, it was in their forward looking bullet item:

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I've been investing heavily in TSLA since 2013. I'm currently down an insane amount in paper losses since 420 tweet. I'm starting to lose faith on TSLA being more than a $100 Billion company anytime soon. We've been told that TE would grow exponentially and be larger than auto since 2016. With battery cell shortage, I don't see how TE can grow significantly at this point for another several years. I do expect auto sales to continue to grow 50% per year, but that isn't enough. Full self driving needs to become a reality, and I bought into the hype and ordered a new Model S P100DL (no VIN after almost 3 weeks), but I'm becoming skeptical that we will even see real traffic light functionality this year. I admire Elon, but his predictions/timelines are useless, and have caused tremendous financial harm to believers like myself that trade based on what he says.

Um. There’s traffic light functionality in the cars *right now*. If you have autosteer on and approach a red light(without a car stopped in front of you), it’ll issue an alert.

 

[ZeApelido]

From the Maxwell slides, they say a 16x production capacity density increase? Like, 16x across the entire cell production line? 16x the number of cells per volume of factory?

 

[NicoV]

I believe Europe will be a HUGE market for EVs, and the transition will be fairly sudden,

Somebody posted a graph here recently with the yearly sales numbers of the EVs, and that graph was clearly exponential. Most people will call the last doubling before reaching 80 or 90 percent ‘sudden’, but there’s nothing ‘sudden’ in an exponential curve.

 

[mongo]

From the Maxwell slides, they say a 16x production capacity density increase? Like, 16x across the entire cell production line? 16x the number of cells per volume of factory?

Production line size due to removing the ovens.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Unless Maxwell has some unannounced method to remove the liquid electrolyte from the cell their dry electrode manufacturing does not make a solid state cell. I see no explanation how their dry electrode manufacturing removes cobalt from cells. I've seen Jack's video, I don't remember him talking about Maxwell allowing solid state cells or cobalt free cells, maybe you could point out the specific parts in the video?

In addition to a potentially easier and cheaper manufacturing process, I think a key benefit of Maxwell's technology is that the improved properties of their dry coated electrodes allow for new cathode and anode chemistries (with higher energy densities) which do not function adequately with electrodes manufactured using the traditional methods. I would guess the first generation of Maxwell electrodes would use Tesla's current cathode chemistry but a new anode chemistry, but it also sounds like they expect their dry electrodes to open up options for new cathode chemistries including cobalt free according to their ppt. Whether dry coated electrodes also have properties which will make solid state battery designs easier to commercialise i don't know - i don't see any reference to solid state in their materials other than the 2 words on their ppt.

From Maxwell's papers:

• "results suggest that dry coated electrodes exhibit lower particle-to-particle contact resistance and charge transfer impedance, likely due to a uniform network of interconnects between binder and active material particles."
• "The lower charge transfer and contact resistance in the dry coated electrode offer higher energy density cell designs with improved power capability."
• "Maxwell’s dry coated battery electrode offers extraordinary benefits, including manufacturing cost reduction, elimination of solvent toxicity, enabling the application of liquid sensitive battery chemistries and enhancing cell performance, particularly at high loading weights when compared to conventional wet coated electrode in discharge rate studies."
• "In addition to manufacturing flexibility, the cohesion and adhesion properties of electrodes derived from the dry process are superior in the presence of electrolyte at high temperatures compared to those produced using the wet coating technology."
• "Maxwell’s DBE offers significantly high loading and produces a thick electrode that allows for high energy density cells without compromising physical properties and electrochemical performance"
• "As a solvent-free process, the polymer binder is not dissolved; as a result, the binding mechanism is an inter-connecting network comprised of point-contacts with the active material particle surface. This dry binding structure is less obtrusive and, consequently, enables lithium ions better access to the active material particles. This feature is especially advantageous for high rate performance in high energy density electrodes."
• "Various dry coated battery electrodes were fabricated, including NMC811, NCA, LFP, LTO, sulfur/carbon and silicon composite, using Maxwell’s dry coating electrode technology. Maxwell’s dry coating electrode technology can be used to produce advanced high capacity NMC811 cathode and silicon-graphite composite anode that can deliver designed discharge capacity."

From ppt: "Technology Enablement & Environmentally Responsible: No Solvents, Next Gen Materials, Cobalt-Free, Solid State "

It looks like Maxwell has another paper due out shortly with results from their pilot production plant:
Dry Processed Nickel-Rich Layered Transition Metal Oxide Cathode Electrode

• "The benefits are lower CO2 emission, lower capex and opex cost, improved energy density and the ability to process moisture sensitive or reactive materials. "
  
• "This paper will report the physical properties of nickel-rich layered dry cathode film produced at the lab and pilot production level and their electrochemical performance with coating loading of 30-40mg/cm2 per coating side, which is significantly heavier than a typical wet cast electrode in the range of 20-24mg/cm2per coating side in commercial high energy 18650 cell."

 

[Unpilot]

Someone let Tesla know the macro's are improving...thank you.

 

[Remus]

Well, if someone like Waymo can spend $100k per car, they can definitely spend some money to upload data (or they can use WiFi). I don't think that is the hard part. They can also write stuff to filter out data like Tesla does (but in a bigger computer in the trunk).

I think no one has tried this because they think simulation with a few hundred cars is enough. We'll see.

100k per car how many cars they can afford to do that?
Say 100k cars, it would be 10 billion.

Realistically speaking few people want to have a big arse hat on top their cars,

so to retrofit existing cars they have to install all cameras inside the car and wiring the big computer in the trunk, hook up existing onboard computer, which might kill the car's 12v battery and void the cars warranty, at the same time rack up installation cost. With the danger of owner pulling the power plug rendering the whole investment useless.

Why would they want to do that?

Only way seems to be partner with an existing manufacturer and sell a model with extra sensor with a big ass on board computer. And the manufacturer needs to change its lines significantly to accommodate the hidden cameras, presumably waymo would have to pay for all the added cost and they have to find buyers to those cars

We haven't even start collecting data yet!

However many years it takes for Tesla to achieve FSD, others are no where near. Chasing Tesla from behind would take sugar load of money and tremendous amount of risk.