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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I don't see the email in the same light as others do. I find that when i read stuff written by elon, that I share a lot of his attitude to money, efficiency and so on. (sadly not quite the success though :D)

In my own business, I am super obsessed with efficiency too. I HATE to think I have wasted money, or have done something inefficiently, or could have sold more, or reached more people, and that sloppiness on my part has led to such a failure. I have effectively 1 other employee, and obsessing about deadlines and production with even this number drives me INSANE, and its not like my employee is lazy in any way.
The fact that my biz is doing well and I DEFINITELY do not need to to squeeze my own efficiency in this way, or obsess about it, is kinda irrelevant. its like optimization OCD and I cannot turn it off. My main products tagline is 'Efficiency is everything' :)
So anyway... I think I understand...

Elon has THOUSANDS of people working for him, with hundreds of processes, over multiple companies, and it probably drives him INSANE that he cannot be doing it all, and being as hyper-optimised as possible. He likely feels like a parent with 10,000 children looking on in horror at what they do and how they do it.

..plus...

he has tasted near bankruptcy before, many times, and knows how awful it is, and is likely a bit over-protective and paranoid. I totally understand this. I worry about my company's sales when all my friends think I'm nuts to worry. its just the way some people are.

I have zero worries about TSLA ever going bankrupt, unless 2 freak asteroid collisions take out both fremont and GF1. Even then I suspect GF3 would just pick up and do things anyway. Don't worry about the company with a much-lauded breakthrough product that still obsesses about efficiency. Worry about the lumbering dinosaurs with last century tech who have forgotten how to spell the word.
Current SP is total loony toons. Eventually people with calmer minds will realize that. probably when their neighbours start parking M3s in their driveways. Dont forget every buyer is also a potential stock buyer.
 
sorry if this was already posted, but the preliminary NTSB report

Highway Preliminary Report: HWY19FH008

So the semi was cutting across the highway and the driver did not see the semi and hit the trailer, shearing the roof off as it underrode the semi and killing the driver.

The question I have is how many times do non-Tesla vehicles collide with semi tractor-trailors performing this maneuver? And how many of those make national news? And how many manufacturer stocks plummet?

real story here is that the US should copy Europe and have those side collision bars to prevent EXACTLY this sort of accident.
 
Good for you! Then why are you coming here to try to depress others?

Ah yes, anyone who is not a cheerleader is "here to depress others". Maybe you're the one who needs cheering up.

I'm here because TSLA stock price is cratering and institutional investors are dumping the stock. I do have a bit of interest that the very expensive car I bought would be affected if TSLA got into real serious financial trouble but I'm cautiously optimistic that it won't come to that. I have multiple issues with my car that TSLA have failed to address and if they get into real trouble those issues will never be addressed.

Am I as optimistic as the legion of koolaid drinkers around here? Nope... I'm a realist.
 
Reflecting on today's stock price and some of the posters here, I think it'd be a good reminder to say that most of Wall Street isn't trading for 10x companies.

Venture Capitalists and Growth Funds play for those style of companies and risk profiles.

But institutions on Wall Street are elated to take reliable 20-30% growth.



Elon's email is so concerning because it focuses on costs. Companies that focus on costs generally aren't going to hit the same growth profiles.
 
Ah yes, anyone who is not a cheerleader is "here to depress others". Maybe you're the one who needs cheering up.

I'm here because TSLA stock price is cratering and institutional investors are dumping the stock. I do have a bit of interest that the car I bought would be affected if TSLA got into real serious financial trouble but I'm cautiously optimistic that it won't come to that.

Am I as optimistic as the legion of koolaid drinkers around here? Nope... I'm a realist.

No.. You are just as dramatic with the “boat anchor” nonsense.
 
real story here is that the US should copy Europe and have those side collision bars to prevent EXACTLY this sort of accident.
we also need tesla semi fast so some truck drivers aren't carelessly cutting in front of traffic at intersections like that. Same thing would have happened no matter what car this poor guy was driving.
 
As much as we are worried that Tesla operation is falling off, the biggest issue is that the investors have just gone hiding. The reason is that Tesla’s problem are mostly self made and investor don’t like it. Q1 mishaps, claiming that we will be gaap positive, 1million robotaxi (I mean why do you have to forecast an exact time and number when you are so far off).

At this point the morale of the employees must be so low. Not good.

I think the TD Rowe issue is an indicator that Elon lost any cred as a sound investment option. So for Elon staying quiet is a good thing.

I am still holding with huge losses. Hoping for some white knight to come and rescue the stock.
 
sorry if this was already posted, but the preliminary NTSB report

Highway Preliminary Report: HWY19FH008

So the semi was cutting across the highway and the driver did not see the semi and hit the trailer, shearing the roof off as it underrode the semi and killing the driver.

The question I have is how many times do non-Tesla vehicles collide with semi tractor-trailors performing this maneuver? And how many of those make national news? And how many manufacturer stocks plummet?

I would agree with you if the only difference was that the car involved was a Tesla. However, the main (and legitimate) issue here is that the Tesla was driven in Autopilot mode.

Now, we can debate on whether that caused the driver to not pay attention, and whether Tesla is legally responsible for what happened considering it is advertising AP as a driving assist and not an autonomous driving system (it is not legally responsible), but there are some facts that people tend to consider:
  1. Elon Musk previously stated that, on the wake of the deadly crash that Joshua Brown was involved in, they adjusted how the front radar signals are processed and those signals are given a higher weight so that a similar accident may never take place (it can see the car in front of the car in front of you, etc.)
  2. Tesla just held the Autonomous Driving Day where they painted the picture of the upcoming FSD capabilities of all Teslas post AP2.5, robotaxis, etc. and they emphasised this will be a major source of income for the company in the future
In view of these two facts, it is reasonable for many investors - at least the institutional ones - to feel nervous about the AP capabilities of Tesla cars and the potential for revenue from Tesla Network. Whether those fears will become reality is irrelevant, the truth is that given what's known right now this accident puts a question mark next to the Tesla Network paradigm.
 
we also need tesla semi fast so some truck drivers aren't carelessly cutting in front of traffic at intersections like that. Same thing would have happened no matter what car this poor guy was driving.
Yeah. Notice that the preliminary report doesn't say anything about how close the Tesla was when the semi tractor-trailer started crossing. The semi "slowed as it crossed the southbound lanes, blocking the Tesla's path." The 10 seconds and 8 seconds are not relative to when the semi blocked the Tesla's path and it was irresponsible of the NTSB to include the time of AP engagement without indicating how close the Tesla was when the semi pulled out in front of it.

In other words, the report is written to give the impression that the accident was the Tesla's fault without providing any facts to support that impression.

Compare that to other preliminary reports and the bias becomes apparent.
HWY19MH001-preliminary-report

So despite being preliminary they address the crossing vehicle's role in the accident when a Tesla is not involved.
 
I disagree, I think Maxwell is already in the semi. Just do the math on wh/kg required and cycle rates required. Either they are using NMC cells which are lower density or they found a way to get 2500+ cycles from higher density NCA cells. The mystery of the they can get 500mi x 2000 cycles (1 million miles) from 1MWh of cells can be solved using Maxwell enabled cells. Zero Cobalt is another thing that might help the costs of building such a large pack and Maxwell would help that, thigh Jeff Dahn already published research that shows NCA could be Cobalt free and not see a big increase in degradation, though Maxwell tech would offset any loses.

As far as Roadster goes, if it's 2 100kwh packs stacked it should have 700+mi range if it uses newly updated model S tech. Maybe it's 2 80KWh packs stacked. Either way, Maxwell would help it be lighter and require less cooling for the battery, or maintain higher output for longer.

I know very little about battery tech, but when the other automakers saw the specs for the semi they all said that it must have faerie dust in it because no way it could do that range with current tech. So I think you may be right...that Musk was already factoring in Maxwell tech.
 
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sorry if this was already posted, but the preliminary NTSB report

Highway Preliminary Report: HWY19FH008

So the semi was cutting across the highway and the driver did not see the semi and hit the trailer, shearing the roof off as it underrode the semi and killing the driver.

The question I have is how many times do non-Tesla vehicles collide with semi tractor-trailors performing this maneuver? And how many of those make national news? And how many manufacturer stocks plummet?

The US regulatory authorities that don't mandate side-bars for trailers should be held culpable and sued by every single family that have lost loved-ones due to these easily avoidable situations. It seems like pure negligence to me.
 
I would agree with you if the only difference was that the car involved was a Tesla. However, the main (and legitimate) issue here is that the Tesla was driven in Autopilot mode.

Now, we can debate on whether that caused the driver to not pay attention, and whether Tesla is legally responsible for what happened considering it is advertising AP as a driving assist and not an autonomous driving system (it is not legally responsible), but there are some facts that people tend to consider:
  1. Elon Musk previously stated that, on the wake of the deadly crash that Joshua Brown was involved in, they adjusted how the front radar signals are processed and those signals are given a higher weight so that a similar accident may never take place (it can see the car in front of the car in front of you, etc.)
  2. Tesla just held the Autonomous Driving Day where they painted the picture of the upcoming FSD capabilities of all Teslas post AP2.5, robotaxis, etc. and they emphasised this will be a major source of income for the company in the future
In view of these two facts, it is reasonable for many investors - at least the institutional ones - to feel nervous about the AP capabilities of Tesla cars and the potential for revenue from Tesla Network. Whether those fears will become reality is irrelevant, the truth is that given what's known right now this accident puts a question mark next to the Tesla Network paradigm.

So... no other vehicle has anti-collision technology? Really?

So it doesn't matter if the semi pulled out in front of the Tesla with <1s of timing? BTW this would be entirely consistent with the preliminary report. The 8s and 10s timings are not relative to the semi pulling out in front of the Tesla. In fact, the sole reason for their inclusion appears to be to mislead.
 
I would like to remind those of you in a panic. After 7 years in TSLA, days and weeks like these have happened about 4 times a year, x 7 years= 28 freak outs on this thread. Though I have lost about 3 x P100D's in the last few weeks, I'm still here and relaxed.

Rather than the details, I like looking at the big picture. In my small city, Tesla's abound, I see 10 or more a day and I work at home! Supercharger build outs are happening at a higher rate than usual (supercharge.info), new China factory is being built, Maxwell was just purchased, software updates continue to be rolled out to our vehicles at a good clip, and just yesterday a new Tesla service facility opened in Oxnard Ca which is already not far from Santa Barbara and Agoura. Does this sound like a company expecting bankruptcy? Naw, it don't. So I choose to relax, as so may times before. Things turn around, and it's usually by complete surprise.