Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

I mean yeah at this point it’s pretty obvious. Usually when we drop hard there is a big bounce. We haven’t seen a big bounce in 6 months. Small rallies get sold off instantly. People keep dumping

Everyone is waiting to see how low it goes.

 

[MartinAustin]

Ugh. Briefly TSLA fell below the November 2013 all-time-high when it was hit by the videos of fires.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

They need a white knight. A partner with a lot of money or a deal that is obviously cash flow positive. Support from a high status ally would help the news flow. Musk needs to cut off the arm to save the body here.

They need to keep making cars, shipping cars, selling cars and stop bleeding money.

Dry your eyes and look at this (Revenue)

2016: $7b (73% increase from 2015)
2017: $11.8b (68% increase)
2018: $21.5b (82.5% increase)
2019 Q1 4.54b (33% increase) on prior year

No one with $25b in annual revenues is disappearing. Profits are over-rated!

 

[KSilver2000]

As low as this is now, I’m looking at $170’s if Tesla can’t get to 90k deliveries or—not even “and”—net profit loss for Q2. Could even get down to $170’s if macros continues worsensing before Q2 numbers release.

Can’t get enough of these analysts’ downgrades and price reductions. When *sugar* hits the fan...

 

[Singuy]

Everyone is waiting to see how low it goes.

Then everyone will post crap like " man should have pulled the trigger at x price".

I don't understand how Tesla stocks can be this low compared to q1 of 2018 when they were burning cash having crazy problems ramping model 3s and weeks from actual bankruptcy. It's like a Twilight zone and ridiculously irrational.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I don’t see any safety here. I think we’re probably ultimately going to get even lower levels.

If you don’t want to see my new prediction. STOP READING

16X/15X

Genuine question here -- as the stock reaches your previous buy level, you keep adjusting lower. When do you stop doing that?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

or—not even “and”—net profit loss for Q2

You expect them to keep dropping even if they hit their guidance?

 

[sundaymorning]

Here's what I was able to find in the transcript of the Q1 call about S/X costs and prices:

Elon Musk

"Yes, I should mention that the upgraded powertrain for S and X was actually launched in a significant cost down because we essentially took the high volume, we’re driving units of the Model 3 which is extremely efficient magnet motor and product electronics and we made a version for that for the contract unit of S and X. And so, we’re actually able to get cost reduction while improving range and [indiscernible] of the car. That’s just 1 example."​

I.e. sharing part of the power train drives down S/X costs.

Elon also mentioned the 5-6% cost savings in the Feb. 28th CC with analysts on the $35,000 Model 3 pricing. I accidentally mixed that CC up with the Q1. Listen to the 33 minute mark.

https://ir.teslamotors.com/events/event-details/35000-model-3-conference-call

 

[Nocturnal]

I think that's pretty much the idea, make longs worry and get them to sell. To me it looks like there is some significant support at around these levels, which suggests someone is accumulating big time.

That being said, I just bought more, so it probably will go lower.

Even analysts are saying that this is mostly driven by shorts rather than fundamentals.

Then everyone will post crap like " man should have pulled the trigger at x price".

I don't understand how Tesla stocks can be this low compared to q1 of 2018 when they were burning cash having crazy problems ramping model 3s and weeks from actual bankruptcy. It's like a Twilight zone and ridiculously irrational.

Yeah, I don't get it myself. I'm buying TSLA because I think it will be 500, 1k, or more at some point. I'm not stressing about buying at 195 vs 190. ​

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Anybody selling right now is insane. At some point, someone with a lot of money (im thinking billions) is going to just snap and buy a *sugar*-ton of TSLA and its going to go bananas. Could be Larry Ellison Could be Sergey/Lartry. Could be saudis or someone similar. This is a stupid bargain at this price.
I remind you that Uber, which has no tech to speak of, no path to profitability, and serious competition is valued dramatically higher right now. Thats literally insane.

 

[Chocochip]

I just don't see anything significantly negative with regards to the company's financials and its overall health. This is just the market being spooked by that internal email, and the shorts taking the opportunity to pile on. Even if Q2 deliveries are below the targeted 90k... so what? Is Tesla dying? Hardly! Is the EV market growth trend stopping? Not really. Is the competition too strong for Tesla? Well, it's good to keep our sense of humour.

I'm wondering if Tesla is possibly planning another small-scale investor day, resulting in a bunch of people putting out some positive reports reg. demand & production levels sometime soon, before EOQ. Or if they, in fact, should do that to bring back some normalcy.

 

[JusRelax]

Even $196 Broken now without markets calculating in recession. Prins me toch say this but it looks like Elon better starts working out a plan B...

What are you talking about? They JUST did a cap raise, have almost $5b in cash, another at least $2b in payments from FCA, and are targeting cash flow neutral/positive moving forward. Why do they need to be working on a plan B right now?

 

[Sweft]

Morgan Stanley (Adam Jonas) call with institutional clients:
https://www.dropbox.com/s/p4xy3002jfup74v/TSLA-Morgan Stanley call-5-22-19.MP3?dl=0

 

[Nocturnal]

Anybody selling right now is insane. At some point, someone with a lot of money (im thinking billions) is going to just snap and buy a *sugar*-ton of TSLA and its going to go bananas. Could be Larry Ellison Could be Sergey/Lartry. Could be saudis or someone similar. This is a stupid bargain at this price.
I remind you that Uber, which has no tech to speak of, no path to profitability, and serious competition is valued dramatically higher right now. Thats literally insane.

and zero moat or competitive advantage in their core business. I could pay a few grand for an app and start my own Uber competition next week.

 

[generalenthu]

As low as this is now, I’m looking at $170’s if Tesla can’t get to 90k deliveries or—not even “and”—net profit loss for Q2. Could even get down to $170’s if macros continues worsensing before Q2 numbers release.

Can’t get enough of these analysts’ downgrades and price reductions. When *sugar* hits the fan...

Expectations are super low. No one believes any guidance from anyone at Tesla. positive FCF of the order of ~100 million can surprise the street. I think they can easily get there if they move metal. By which I mean, a strong delivery of Ravens in q2. Of course the old S/X inventory is getting liquidated as well. So don't see too many issues with posting strong FCF. 3 deliveries seem to be chugging along.

 

[Singuy]

You expect them to keep dropping even if they hit their guidance?

Tesla doesn't even need to hit guidance. They just need to show numbers higher than q1 with losses way less than q1. The narrative is a DEMAND problem. Kind of kills the thesis if sales of all models increase.

The reason why there is a demand thesis is because there's a sharp drop in deliveries q4 to q1.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Expectations are super low. No one believes any guidance from anyone at Tesla. positive FCF of the order of ~100 million can surprise the street. I think they can easily get there if they move metal. By which I mean, a strong delivery of Ravens in q2. Of course the old S/X inventory is getting liquidated as well. So don't see too many issues with posting strong FCF. 3 deliveries seem to be chugging along.

This. I think meeting Q2 guidance will get us back to $250+ in short order. It's that simple.

 

[saniflash]

At some point, someone with a lot of money (im thinking billions) is going to just snap and buy a *sugar*-ton of TSLA

I think that's already happening

 

[mongo]

Even more so than buying all the lottery tickets, buying all the TSLA to force a short squeeze is an interesting value proposition.

NaA.

 

[sundaymorning]

Being bought out by a public company isn’t the same as going private...

Whether if it’s a buyout or take private, anything under the price of $420 is shady on Elon’s part as he decided to reverse course, especially when $420 was within striking distance months ago. He has publicly stated that the funding was there, VW was one of the presumed parties involved, and he turned them, along with his bankers down. With Elon stating recently that Tesla will be a $500 billion company within 5-10 years, why would he sell for anything less than $420? Especially with over $4 billion in cash to take us beyond Model Y.

Take private or buyout, it’s shady business if the price is under $420.