Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KSilver2000]

Very low volume now. It should be relatively easy to take out the intraday low.

Not doubting that the low will go lower, but it doesn’t look like a low volume day. Seems like it’ll close the day with volume a lot higher than the average.

 

[capster]

i’m actually getting angry watching the ticker today. i’ve had enough of this bullish!t. it’s beyond ridiculous.

Revenge is a dish best served cold.

 

[EVNow]

. I think MS is leading the short attack, probably has a huge Put/short position

I don't think they can do that - unless it is to hedge something else. I think the short attacks are purely from hedge funds.

What we don't know is what is the price EM is likely to say, time to do something drastic and burn the shorts. He'll have to swallow a bit of his pride and get a big player or two on board with a 10% or 20% stake to do it.

 

[bdy0627]

Is there something that we don’t know about? It’s insane how this can’t ever catch a bid

This has the appearance of a continued short attack to me, but I've never seen it go on this long without being exhausted and reversed. I have no clue how long they can keep this up. $178-180 should be a strong support level, then $141 I guess. At this point, it's anyone's guess. I think the fact that we have about 6 weeks until firm data can dispel the current panic over demand is probably holding buyers back.

 

[TradingInvest]

Update on this latest dip:
The low of $186 yesterday is a dip of 27.9% since the modest climb of 11.7% to $258 on 5/6. We are on day 14 of this dip. $186 is down 52.2% from the ATH of $389. If you use an 8% volatility filter then this latest dip of 27.9% is the 3rd worst since 2014. There was a drop of 32.2% in April 2018 and the huge drop in Feb 2016 of 42%.

The great irony is that this current huge drop is happening during a quarter that may actually set a new record for production and deliveries. However, we won't know that for another 5-6 weeks.

We can't use previous falls to predict how this fall will work out, the past few times we had large funds defending the stock.
When a stock is being attacked, especially if the company has a lot of debt, I throw valuation out of the picture. The supply and demand of shares and options will determine the price move. When stocks drop a lot, shorts gained power to keep attacking. Longs become weak. In Tesla's case, lots of longs are concentrated with leverage, they are in damage control mode, can't do much. They have risk of flash crash. Shorts have their own risk that is if they push too low, big buyers might get in and cause rally. I keep my mind open for both possibilities.

 

[bdy0627]

Not doubting that the low will go lower, but it doesn’t look like a low volume day. Seems like it’ll close the day with volume a lot higher than the average.

I meant that we are in the lower volume hours now where the stock could be pushed lower more easily.

 

[capster]

Thanks for the informative post. But next time be a little bit more generic in your source and location. We love the inside scoops and news but we do not want to get anyone in trouble.

Doubting that an employee in Europe would be in the know about Tesla battery break through tech.

Tut, tut.

Reposting the full quote shows your true colors. You are aiming below the belt.

 

[Electroman]

Thanks! Ahh reddit...the vast expanse. I’ll give it a shot.

US Plugin EV Sales 2012 to Present : Tesla

And thanks to those promoting the tweet! I’ve never seen this much activity on my phone.

Hmm.. Ross Gerber is taking credit to this?

Ross Gerber on Twitter

 

[KSilver2000]

Can you imagine where TSLA would be right now had Elon not written the email yesterday to counteract the market drop? TSLA could have been closer to $180 probably today.
Jeez....

I’ve said it before that Tesla would be in the $170’s at best in Q2 if it can’t get back in the black, or miss the 90k deliveries, or a downward guidance revision. But, it’s surprising that Tesla could possibly reach $170 even before Q2.

 

[UncaNed]

Somewhat OT but I typically for years have gone to Yahoo for finance news (old habit) but the constant TSLA hate is irritating. Where should I go for balanced financial news covering all companies? I do want negative when TSLA messes up but the FUD makes me want to stop giving Yahoo clicks. TIA.

There needs to be a Tesla News Channel. To tell the truth about Tesla, yes, but also, because democracy is now dying in the darkness, there needs to be a Tesla News Channel that tells the truth about everything.

 

[capster]

Very very bad SP movement.

CDS have also risen to ATH

Meh.

I think y’all can do better.

 

[Drax7]

I like most was Surprised at even the possibility of a record quarter.
The market is ignoring it .

We need corroborating evidence that quarter will be met.
Model s and x deliveries still appear sparse, does anybody
Have delivery data on the new models.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Adam Jonas is not an idiot. I think MS is leading the short attack

I don't think they care about fees. They care about trading profits, probably 50 times larger than potential fees. If trade war with China intensifies, these bad guys might get their ways.

MS doesn't prop trade anymore - sorry to pop your conspiracy bubble - haven't for years.

 

[izemize]

Institutions are dumping? How could this insanity keep on?

This has the appearance of a continued short attack to me, but I've never seen it go on this long without being exhausted and reversed. I have no clue how long they can keep this up. $178-180 should be a strong support level, then $141 I guess. At this point, it's anyone's guess. I think the fact that we have about 6 weeks until firm data can dispel the current panic over demand is probably holding buyers back.

It takes a lot of time for institutions to dump millions of shares on retail without completely crashing the SP. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[ZeApelido]

Think it's worthwhile to have discussion topic(s) on what Starlink can do for Tesla across the following (and probably many more):

• Reduce cost of cars based on contract switch from AT&T to Starlink
• Improved data collection for cars, due to increased connectivity, using Starlink
• Improved Autonomy functionality for cars, due to increased connectivity, using Starlink
  
• Transportation needs/wants with full, singular worldwide broadband

Worthwhile to have a discussion, right?

Starlink has nothing to do with Tesla. At least my friend who makes the satellites for SpaceX doesn't know of any plans last time I asked.

 

[Curt Renz]

Given CNBC's past performance do you really think that:
A. They would let someone like that on?
B. If they did, would they allow them to speak?
C. Even if they spoke, would they not edit out the parts they didn't like?
Hard as it is to swallow, I think their best course is just to keep on executing and ignore the static. (And maybe buy back shares).

CNBC would love to have a Tesla executive on the show, especially Elon. Their auto industry reporter Phil LeBeau has said so, while complaining that Tesla will not oblige him. If Elon agreed to appear, CNBC would intensively promote the upcoming interview. If they can't get Tesla to buy advertising, they would at least like to achieve a likely ratings jump from an Elon interview. BTW, I'm retired from a career in TV financial news.

 

[Vaamo]

First time poster (long time lurker)...

As my user name suggests, I am about to make, by far, the largest bet of my life and will be buying 1,000 shares of Tesla once the funds clear in about a week or so. I will be using a good amount of borrowed money to make the purchase (which includes some margin from my broker as well).

Fortunately, I have a pretty good and steady job that would allow me to pay back any loses within 4-5 years or so if things go south (I am a CPA as well so even if I lose my job I should be able to fine another one fairly quickly in my market). The way I see it, I am borrowing from my future to buy Tesla at this level today, as opposed to buying the same number of shares over the next 4-5 years.

I would never recommend this to anyone and am still having second thoughts myself but on my death bed I will look back at this and say I am glad that I did it (whether it works out for me or not).

Good luck to all but especially Tesla!

Quite aggressive. So far your post is not insisting lot of confidence that you want to do this (you can't be confident in such a risky market anyway). I believe you have already decided, but in order to succeed you should prevail with the trade long enough. Based on your post, it seems that you are risking more than you can mentally afford. You should work on your backup plan. Have it more detailed. Make some calculations for the 160/140/120$ downside scenario, and look at the numbers. Would you be Ok with that? You should be. Still too much downside risk in the stock price for such uncertain move.

Gambling all on one investment is very dangerous. At least don't invest it all at once. Maybe wait with some significant portion of capital, and after the Q2 production numbers finish the investment, if it still holds true to your investment strategy. You better have a strategy.

Think also about your relationships, possible health issues yours and inside of your family circle(some really unexpected issues) which can put a lot of pressure on your financial situation. All compounded when your investment will go south on you.

Or take some counter measures, which could limit such exposure to external negative factors in play.

When it will turn against you, and you can't stand the pressure any more, and the rationale behind your strategy still holds true, slowly reduce the size of the position one step at a time.

Good luck! And don't forget the regular workout

 

[K_Dizzle]

It takes a lot of time for institutions to dump millions of shares on retail without completely crashing the SP. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

What’s your definition of crashing the share price?

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Well, I'm glad Elon is still being paid well.

The Highest-Paid C.E.O.s of 2018: A Year So Lucrative, We Had to Redraw Our Chart

At more than 40,000 x average worker salary, Tesla is the most unequal company (in terms of pay) in the United States.

... I just know I've triggered someone!

 

[Glamisduner]

Man im taking a beating, average share price is 290 . Not sure weather to hold or get out now before it's too late. I mean I used the 5k tesla refunded me on my purchase to buy the stock, but well damn.