Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mars ☰mperor]

I think Standard Range Plus is basically conformed!

The page source listed a bunch of numbers as hints.

“460, 225, 5.6, 3, 2, 8, 0, 27800 and 56000”

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

“27800 for Autopilot.
56000 for FSD
460 KM range
225 km/h high speed
5.6s 0-100km/h”

These are all the same configurations as SRP.

Now what about the rest of the numbers
“3, 2, 8, 0”

0 for 0 tax
8 for August production
2?
3?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I think Standard Range Plus is basically conformed!

The page source listed a bunch of numbers as hints.

“460, 225, 5.6, 3, 2, 8, 0, 27800 and 56000”
View attachment 412805
T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

“27800 for Autopilot.
56000 for FSD
460 KM range
225 km/h high speed
5.6s 0-100km/h”

These are all the same configurations as SRP.

Now what about the rest of the numbers
“3, 2, 8, 0”

0 for 0 tax
8 for August production
2?
3?

2 for Dual Subsidies, both state and local


——————

Well another theory for 3, 2, 8, 0 could be
RMB 328,000, or 283,000.

No way it’s going to be 238,000 though.

Or “Model 3 is 280,000 or 288,000.”

I’ll stop speculating now just less than 3 days.

 

[jerry33]

Really? For air suspension?

Actually, that makes a lot of sense because those kind of active suspensions are based on Citroën ID/DS technology. In the ID/DS a oil/pneumatic sphere created the active suspension. In Tesla's suspension, the ultra capacitor performs a similar function. I don't know if it's different enough for Tesla to have to pay royalties the way Mercedes did for their version.

 

[elasalle]

Did the 10K in transit numbers in Q1 letter, include all vehicles in inventory(new)?
If not that would mean there are more vehicles than 10K in inventory to begin Q2. (implying easier to hit 90K target, if demand is there)

Also, anyone hearing about people taking 2018 M3 vehicles anymore or are they all gone .. if current inventory say's no cars than one would assume these are all gone too ...

 

[bhtooefr]

Actually, that makes a lot of sense because those kind of active suspensions are based on Citroën ID/DS technology. In the ID/DS a oil/pneumatic sphere created the active suspension. In Tesla's suspension, the ultra capacitor performs a similar function. I don't know if it's different enough for Tesla to have to pay royalties the way Mercedes did for their version.

I doubt that Tesla is actually using the capacitors to perform damping functions (that would be a using linear motor in the suspension).

It'd more likely be using the capacitor to quickly dump energy into the system that adjusts the damping. There's AFAIK two main ways to do this - magnetorheological dampers (which have a fluid that increases in viscosity when exposed to a magnetic field, increasing damping), and adding a solenoid valve to the damper (to adjust the amount of fluid going through the damper to increase/decrease damping). I'd suspect the latter.

 

[Singuy]

The nationality of a car is not one thing.

Where is the car designed.
Where is the assembly line designed.
Who assembled the production line.
Who wrote the code for the individual robot actions.
Who wrote the code for line management.
Who designed the quality control systems.
Where is the car assembled.
Where was the car software written.
Where are the batteries made.
Where does the battery technology originate.
Etc.

A Tesla made in China is still a very American bred car.

I would have no qualms at all if my Model 3 is delivered to Sydney ex China. If it’s more affordable, so much the better.

That's not how Chinese people think. Registration sticker tells people where the car is assembled and affluent people cars about the tiny details and are willing to pay more for an imported product because they think the car will have a higher quality. Just like how some people here care if the Volkswagen actually came from Germany or Mexico.

 

[Maitri982]

Not necessarily, as there's a fair likelihood that Shanghai Gigafactory speculation on Chinese social media is already Osborning Tesla sales in China to a certain extent. If there's unrealistic expectations as to pricing - i.e. if prospective Chinese Tesla customers much less expensive than the U.S. version, then it could be holding back current demand.

By announcing pricing, availability dates and feature set it could create certainty and push quite a few Chinese customers over the fence that they want the U.S. LR or Performance version instead and pull the trigger in Q2 for inventory models. By creating certainty Tesla can create a "Reverse Osborn Effect" if you will.

Hence the May 31 timing I believe.

They might also open up orders (not pre-orders), which would create a bit of hype and positive media attention within China. It would also allow Tesla to measure which exact variants will be the most popular initially.

It will not be cheaper IMO. Which is good.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

That's not how Chinese people think. Registration sticker tells people where the car is assembled and affluent people cars about the tiny details and are willing to pay more for an imported product because they think the car will have a higher quality. Just like how some people here care if the Volkswagen actually came from Germany or Mexico.

What “Registration sticker” are you talking about?

Been in China forever and I don’t even know that.

 

[HG Wells]

It will not be cheaper IMO. Which is good.

But it will avoid the import taxes. That will make it cheaper to buy.

 

[mongo]

It will not be cheaper IMO. Which is good.

Shanghai Giga will produce affordable versions of 3/Y for greater China. All Model S/X & higher cost versions of Model 3/Y will still be built in US for WW market, incl China.

Twitter

Will affordable be the original base interior SR?

 

[Maitri982]

But it will avoid the import taxes. That will make it cheaper to buy.

True...I meant sticker price sans tariffs.

 

[Pras]

Bloomberg tracker demised. Asking for survey. I recommend adding your input.

<b>Tesla Model 3 Owners Survey</b><br>Bloomberg Hyperdrive

 

[RoadsterPlease]

I just watched 45 minutes of regional south german television about Daimler's change to electric:

the best quote is at 31:36: "Daimler is a huge ship with thousands of employees that's hard to steer, Elon's job is easier because he doesn't have to transform as much."
Also my personal feeling is that we in germany lack the know-how to develop a big data autonomous fleet, we have smart people in tech but I guess silicon valley with Apple, Google and Facebook attracts the best talents for machine learning.

edit: also around 42 minutes in they talk about fears of Uber, Lyft Google taking most of the profits in ride sharing because Daimler is only the subcontractor and doesn't make the final sale of the service with the big margins.

 

[Tslynk67]

Encourage everyone to watch this video a couple of times and reflect on what this says about Tesla in its current state
Tesletter on Twitter

That really is uncanny...

 

[Tslynk67]

Seems to be freshly coming from NOCC Oceanic. Any guesses for Norway delivery this quarter? I think 4-5K would be right up there.

Norway is currently 70% ahead for the first two months and still some days left in May, I reckon they'll be close to double by the end of the week. In March they delivered 5.8k cars, so they could do half that amount in June and still hit 4-5k, so I'm thinking more like 7k.

Total WAG, of course, and depends how much they're winding down the wave.

 

[shootformoon]

Will China only produce SR or SR+?

I actually didn’t expect them to lower the price of locally made cars, at least not by much.
So I’m suspecting if the locally made M3 carries lower price, they won’t be exactly the same as SR+, so it won’t mess up pricing in other markets.
Maybe it’ll be something in the middle of SR+ and the original SR, and priced around SR level.

Anyways they probably would stop importing SR+ soon, this pulls up the SR+ demand who prefers imported Tesla.

Again I would expect the price to be not much lower, so people would stop speculating locally cars to be much cheaper. Some could give up the waiting and pull the trigger on imported higher trims.

I am not sure. I think the current slower pace in China sales is mainly the result of imported tax etc and lack of government subsidies. Since china produced SR will avoid both, even with the same internal revenue per car for tsla, the MSRP for consumers would be much lower.

 

[Tslynk67]

And there you go...

Here's Jeff's illustrious history on the stock...

 

[Artful Dodger]

More positive vibes about battery production coming from Sparks:

carsonight | 6 hours ago

"I talk to people who work on both sides, Tesla and Panasonic. I give as detailed information as possible; look at my back posts. I'm not going to tell you that so-and- from zone four said such-and-such. What I can tell you without compromising anybody I will share. What I can tell you right now is that when Musk said Tesla will likely beat the Q4 delivery numbers for the Model 3, he wasn't kidding. I can also tell you that much of the production will be the SR Model 3."​

Note that quarterly Model 3 production was 61,394 in 2018Q4, and 62,950 in 2019Q1.

Cheers!

 

[EVMeister]

Jeffrey Solomon is a nitwit.

 

[Highway2Heel]

I’m seeing Model 3s in the nether reaches of where I live in the southeast...out in the countryside where you just don’t expect to see them. My eyes tell me the car is becoming very popular...