Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[EVNow]

Costing Tesla $38k to build, or priced at $38k? I suspect the later, therefore costing the owner $38k.

GSP

Costing Tesla $38 to build. If Tesla ever manages to get to FSD, Tesla won't be selling real robocars for anywhere near that $38k price. Check my postings on this - it will be more like $250k since you can run it as a robotaxi and make $100k per year.

 

[JusRelax]

Paid advertising is expensive and a poor bang for the buck right now. Tesla needs to fix its customer (and internal) communications, so that customer service becomes good (it's currently awful, and it's not the fault of the bottom-line people -- they're doing their best -- it's due to a lack of institutional process support). That's a better bang for the buck.

Agreed. This kind of advertising should suffice for now:

1.539 second 60’ time and 10.531 1/4 mile on new Performance Model S : teslamotors

 

[mongo]

Obviously some LRs & Performances are being made. And some Powerwalls and Powerpacks. So it probably ends up being more like 10,000 packs per week. Aka the target number...

Though going to higher production is always better, because that Powerwall backlog needs to be fulfilled!

The new Grohmann machine(s) don't make Powerwall or Powerpack modules, so power products don't decrease the theoretical production number based on the 45 second rate. Of course, cell production, specifically lines allocated to TE vs TA, does, but that is upstream from the new equipment.

 

[schonelucht]

OT

Don’t forget he spent big chunk of his loan on buying houses, and those should have got pretty good return recently, probably refinancing those houses alone could cover his loans against TSLA stocks.

Not really, he already mortgaged them for 100% of their value on Dec 18 last year.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Rumor in The Netherlands is that Elon will be here on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday to attend The Global Entrepreneurship Summit in The Hague and the YES!Delft incubator at Delft Technical University. I can’t imagine him staying that long though.

(A heads up, so we don’t have to start speculating about the European Gigafactory when his jet crosses the Atlantic)

 

[Krugerrand]

Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast: Episode 200: My Elon Musk Interview

(51 mins in) Elon: Ideally pickup truck will have a maximum starting price under $49,000 (or less).

Goal is to be "functionally better than an F150 and faster than a 911" is what I think he said!

Yeah, not a tough call there. Where do I go to put down my deposit?

 

[Prunesquallor]

New record today - 48. Two new superchargers under construction were added, while one under construction went live.

Don’t know if you have counted the one in Webster, Texas under construction. Its been in stealth mode, seemingly. But I checked the other day and there is activity.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Yeah, not a tough call there. Where do I go to put down my deposit?

Here in pickup land, I am REALLY interested in how this is going to play out.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Agreed. This kind of advertising should suffice for now:

1.539 second 60’ time and 10.531 1/4 mile on new Performance Model S : teslamotors

Wow, that’s fast. On average, that 0-60 is almost 2g. I figured Raven might be quicker for the performance S, but wow.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla is squirrelly. If you look at how they frame autopilot related safety numbers it is particularly obvious how they are happy to distort statistics. I don't think the actual financial reported numbers allow for an extrapolation that the SR+ costs 35k$ to build but I'd be happy to see the math/logic that proves me wrong. Btw, I'm not saying any particular thing is ignorance I'm just saying there's a process of denial here, of wishful thinking, that leads to a convenient ignorance. I mean this forum has basically avoided this subject with an incredible force field for 9 months now, and it keeps getting excited about easy detours that take the pressure off the uncomfortable facts. And now we're down 50% because the market figured it out.

edit: If that didn't make sense it's because it's late. I'm prolly headed off now.

No it didn't make any sense. When you call my posting "ignorant" you better have some solid ground. Your conspiracy theories and speculation is not "proof".

I don't think the actual financial reported numbers allow for an extrapolation that the SR+ costs 35k$ to build but I'd be happy to see the math/logic that proves me wrong.

At this point you are actually indulging in same speculative (but bearish) thinking you are accusing the forum of doing. Shouldn't you be actually showing how 38k is more likely than 34k, than just thinking it is?

Hint : You need very high margin on LR, very little difference between COGS of SR+ and LR to get to 20% overall margin if SR+ is being sold at cost.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I live in Michigan. The MOST Anti-Tesla state in the US. Closest service center is about 3 hours away. Fortunately mobile service is allowed. I have had my Model S for about 2.5 years. Have yet needed to go to the service center. Will be taking it to Toledo in a couple weeks for just general maintenance and a few minor issues. Service is not as big of problem as some like to make it out to be.

Texas isn’t far behind you, but a new service center just opened in Tyler, and some legislation threatening them went down in defeat. So there is hope.

 

[Krugerrand]

Here in pickup land, I am REALLY interested in how this is going to play out.

If Tesla hits those targets with that truck, can we say ‘going to be epic’? Yes. Yes, we can. And we will laugh all the way to the bankola.

 

[shootformoon]

Exactly. The real tesla buyers average age is close to 50. How many of them watch youtube on a regular basis? All the enthusiasm within teens are great but it takes at least 5-10 years to translate into real sales. Tesla needs to directly target the decision makers in the household with the checkbook.

But there are a LOT of people who don't really watch YouTube.

There are still a LOT of people who watch TV instead.

These people are typically older, but not necessarily closed minded.

Older people tend to have more money for $40K+ cars.

Tesla has dominated social media for years, but it needs to reach the people who are not living on their phones and conversing with teenagers online.

 

[neroden]

The brand isn’t being damaged. That’s a false perception.

The brand is actually being damaged by the repeated customer communications fiascos.

The FUD? It only takes one test drive to counteract THAT.

The customer communications fiascos do long-term brand damage.

 

[Joe F]

Thought's for the weekend.
IF your feeling mad/sad about these short term stock movement's....GO FOR A DRIVE in your miracle machine from the future.

We did. Picked up a friend and put on 140 miles. For hot dogs. And waffle cone ice cream. Just because.

Beautiful peaceful drive along mostly back roads. Amazing what’s off the beaten path. Returned along the Delaware River on the Pennsylvania side along the old canal. This picturesque drive was just made for a Tesla.

My bride road in the back seat for the first time, and has a new appreciation for the glass roof. Can’t wait for true FSD to be released so I can see what she saw as well!

 

[neroden]

My coworker are asking me if I feel safe having my Tesla park in my garage due to spontaneous combustion.

I assume you told him that his BMW is far more likely to spontaneously combust.

My dad is advising me to not us AP due to it killing people.

I assume you told him "You're supposed to watch the road while using it -- the people who died didn't watch the road"

See, these are easy to counteract.

But if someone comes up to me and says "I called Tesla up, was on hold for 15 minutes, asked a question they couldn't answer, they said they'd call me back, and they never called me back", that's not something we can counteract, because it's true, that sort of thing happens all the time.

 

[neroden]

The Chinese rules have changed for all automakers,not just Tesla.

BMW to Take Control of China Joint Venture in $4 Billion Deal

Yes.

Interestingly -- That gets BMW from 50% to 75%. Another $4 billion to get the other 25%. Tesla has proven to be able to do a lot more with $8 billion... their wholly owned factory in China costs less than that for 100%.

 

[neroden]

OT

OT

Hypnotising - you're gonna love it.

Fun, but failure to model pedestrian flow means it's just a game, not realistic.

 

[neroden]

only if they make missteps with their self driving and other software updates.

They already have made huge missteps with their software updates, of course

 

[Beltsbear]

Wow, that’s fast. On average, that 0-60 is almost 2g. I figured Raven might be quicker for the performance S, but wow.

that is the time to 60 feet not zero to 60.