Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

..

hard to say. A lot of ships loaded so not sure where the cars are. Could be same as April.

Numbers are only for US.... so inversely proportional to # of ships.
It has been reported that in Q2 Tesla was producing for all 3 markets, in smaller batches ..

 

[ruralectric]

interesting premarket movement

 

[elasalle]

New hit piece from Bernstein analyst: Bernstein says Tesla won't be bought: 'We struggle to see it being sold as a going concern'

Highlights:
- Tesla no longer has genuinely differentiated tech.
- Gigafactory is probably not essential
- The brand still has value, albeit one that is declining fast.
- The Supercharger network also has some value.
- We struggle to see it being sold as a going concern

We really are at peak FUD.

If all this FUD was being created on the Detroit Big 3, I think there would be an investigation from US Govt, on industrial sabotage.
Given that Tesla has created 40K jobs, I think someone should do the same for Tesla.
Isn't misleading the public on a US company, for the benefit of foreign corporations industrial sabotage?

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Here's a comparison table between the dimensions of the four form factors Tesla is offering:

  car        length             width              height
  Model 3:   4,694 mm (100%)    1,849 mm (100%)    1,443 mm (100%)
  Model S:   4,980 mm ( +6%)    1,964 mm ( +6%)    1,440 mm ( +0%)
  Model Y:  ~4,830 mm ( +3%)    1,849 mm ( +0%)   ~1,643 mm (+14%)
  Model X:   5,036 mm ( +7%)    1,999 mm ( +8%)    1,684 mm (+16%)

Note how close the dimensions of a 'base Model X' are to the Model Y: only ~4% longer, ~8% wider and ~2% taller.

The most important metric for SUVs is generally their height: easier to get into and move around in - and in height there's only a 2% difference.

I.e. the size difference, with the exception of it being 8% narrower, would be difficult to notice in person. The Model Y IS pretty close to the base Model X without Falcon Wing Doors and other luxury features.

Well thanks a lot!! Now I think we'll go back to our original plan and wait on the Model Y!!

Actually, I really like the auto-opening and closing doors on the X. That's one feature I wish Tesla would make available on all of their vehicles. I thought it was stupid - UNTIL I had a loaner X for a couple of weeks. When I returned the X and picked up my S, my first thought was that it sucked to have to open the door myself!

 

[traxila]

My reading:

Street thinks that Tesla cannot make 90k guidance for Q3, and 350-400k for the year. Tired of hearing lofty goals that is missed. They strongly believe there is no demand for that many and Tesla cannot produce anyway.

But the real reason for the bearishness is, they are disappointed that if profits are questionable after even making 90k cars, then then business is perhaps fundamentally unprofitable, not withstanding Musks pronouncements of 25% per car profits? This concern has now deepened.

Street has ignored Robo-Taxis as there is a not a single expert in the whole industry that thinks this is feasible even in a decade, let alone in one year. In fact the Robo-Taxis has severely dented Musks credibility in the eyes off WS. Some think he is delusional. Others think he is trying to con them with the next big shiny object behind the curtain. If there had been no ‘Investor day’, SP would be in the low 200.

Bulls have not put forth any credible arguments to quell these concerns, except counting ships and registration numbers in NL and Norway.

Yeah, but everything is a negative now as per WS, including China! So many negative notes about what a bad deal China is going to be for Tesla. Most of the time the factory that is about to begin producing is not even mentioned!

The dominant EV manufacturer in the world building a 100 percent owned factory in the largest car market in the world, a market that is in the process of going 100% BEV, this is to be ignored and discounted or even attacked as a negative.

Robo-Taxis definitely in show me state. They should be.

Volume is necessary for infrastructures to turn profitable, and this definitely applies to Tesla. Seems Elon missed the number they need to turn profits. It is still coming.

But it is hard to say we are not at some sort of peak FUD.

 

[sixela]

However, in the long-run, stock prices cannot be manipulated.

Because everyone in the market is a rational actor with perfect information, right?

With that kind of belief system, be happy you weren't a tulip investor in the 17th century in the Netherlands.

 

[Creekstalker]

But the real reason for the bearishness is, they are disappointed that if profits are questionable after even making 90k cars, then then business is perhaps fundamentally unprofitable, not withstanding Musks pronouncements of 25% per car profits? This concern has now deepened.

This is an accurate sentence, I'm afraid. "Once Tesla scales up to _______ cars per month, then $$$$" is a thing a lot of us (and the market) have been anticipating and here we are hoping that 90k might bring the quarter to break even. I get the market's reaction and people wondering if it's even possible to make mass market electric cars profitably. Time is on our side though. Every day brings more interest, acceptance, and inevitability on the demand side and Tesla gets better at making the cars on the supply side.

 

[Singuy]

Market does never IGNORE information. Every information that is publicly availabie is interpreted accordingly. This does of course not mean that stock prices cannot be manipulated in the short-term. However, in the long-run, stock prices cannot be manipulated.

Further, if a stock decreases despite of good news, ask yourself: There might be other reasons for the stock to decline like the general market environment.

Anyone who is trading thinking teslaQ in 10 months is blatantly ignoring facts, or stupid enough to put money on the line with no English comprehension skills.

It's almost saying people didn't ignore the fact of "right", they just choose to interpret "left". That's nonsense.

 

[MP3Mike]

AP2 is Model S/X, AP2.5 is Model 3. Only hardware difference is the interior view camera on the Model 3 (with an eye toward supporting use on TN).

No. HW2 is the original items in the S&X. HW2.5 was next in the S&X with different radar, cameras with better color filters, and an extra SoC processor. (This is why HW2.5 S&X cars have Teslacam and Sentry mode that records, while AP2 cars do not.) The Model 3 is HW2.5 plus an internal "selfie" cam that is currently used.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think not.

Tesla is doing well selling to people, like on this thread.

Over 45, wealthy and living on the internet.

~45% of American sales are in California and most of that is in Urban California.

This is a large group over 50,wealthy, and not living on the internet.

Did you see the post with the average age of Tesla owners?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Here comes Euro Gigafactory
View attachment 414940

He landed in Rotterdam last night. Maybe you’re right? Last time he visited Zebrugge he flew to Ostend if I remember correctly.

 

[Electroman]

Here's a comparison table between the dimensions of the four form factors Tesla is offering:

  car        length             width              height
  Model 3:   4,694 mm (100%)    1,849 mm (100%)    1,443 mm (100%)
  Model S:   4,980 mm ( +6%)    1,964 mm ( +6%)    1,440 mm ( +0%)
  Model Y:  ~4,830 mm ( +3%)    1,849 mm ( +0%)   ~1,643 mm (+14%)
  Model X:   5,036 mm ( +7%)    1,999 mm ( +8%)    1,684 mm (+16%)

Note how close the dimensions of a 'base Model X' are to the Model Y: only ~4% longer, ~8% wider and ~2% taller.

The most important metric for SUVs is generally their height: easier to get into and move around in - and in height there's only a 2% difference.

I.e. the size difference, with the exception of it being 8% narrower, would be difficult to notice in person. The Model Y IS pretty close to the base Model X without Falcon Wing Doors and other luxury features.

This is excellent piece of information. I had no idea that Y will be 14% taller, or only 2% shorter than 3. Pictures and video from reveal gave the impression that it is only marginally taller.

Where did FC get this info? Did Tesla release the official dimensions of Y ?

 

[Krugerrand]

For those of us who still think in inches.
Does the first table mean I have to buy a METRIC socket set to work on my 3?

Length Width Height

Model 3 184.8 +++ 72.8 +++ 56.8

Model S 196.1 +6% 77.3 +6% 56.7 +0%

Model Y 190.2 +3% 72.8 +0% 64.7 +14%

Model X 198.3 +7% 78.7 +8% 66.3 +16%

Teslas are metric.

 

[Vaamo]

This is excellent piece of information. I had no idea that Y will be 14% taller, or only 2% shorter than 3. Pictures and video from reveal gave the impression that it is only marginally taller.

Where did FC get this info? Did Tesla release the official dimensions of Y ?

FC already mentioned, that estimates float the internet(basically since unveil). Most of them extrapolate dimensions from image comparison of Model 3&Y

Edit:
Model Y always seemed to me more like a higher sedan, than SUV or CUV. The closest I can think of is BMW5 GT series shape.
There was some back and forth with BMW X6 until other brands followed. Now, when X4 came out, it is much more reminiscent of aggressive looking sedan with high clearance. It is almost as a sedan on a tiny monster-truck platform.

In this regards, Model Y seems to be in this "new" category of higher sedans. Sedan with higher seating position, more inside volume, with slightly higher clearance and maybe bigger wheel option. I believe Model Y will be trendsetting for the rest of the industry, which also fits with somewhat mildly pessimistic reactions to the car

 

[mariaaa]

Because everyone in the market is a rational actor with perfect information, right?

With that kind of belief system, be happy you weren't a tulip investor in the 17th century in the Netherlands.

Look, I do also feel bullish about the future of Tesla. However, a company does need to be profitable. And Tesla has proven that they cannot be profitable even with delivering the expected amount of Model 3's. At the same time, the incentives payments from various governments all over the world are ending this year or next year (USA, Germany, etc.), which will just put more pressure on Tesla.

The real question is: Can Tesla be profitable? And if yes, how profitable will they be? The stock market normally pays around a P/E multiple of 10-15 for carmakers and 15-30 for tech-companies. As Tesla is kind of a mixed company, I'd consider a P/E of 20 to be reasonable.

So if they achieve a yearly profit (EPS) of 10$ (based on the adjusted earnings of 2.90$ in Q4 2018), that suggest a share price of 200$. This however, does not take into account the current growth of the company. Market does currently interpret that Tesla cannot hold the current growth rate and therefore the valuation went down significantly (paired with the increased default risk).

So based on al information above and IF Tesla can really be sustainable profitable like in Q4 2018, I'd assume a share price of 250 - 350$ to be reasonable.

 

[neroden]

I am in California where we have the SGIP incentive. I have two Powerwalls arriving in July.

BatteryTesla Powerwall 2 AC
x2 with instal, permitting etc.
Cash purchase
Total amount

$23,094.50

Federal tax credit**

$6,928.35

SGIP incentives & Rebates**

$8,120.00

Net cost

$8,046.15

19150 quote for one in WV, 23050 quote for two Power walls in CA... This seems to imply that most of the cost is in installation and the Power wall only costs 4k. Though I think WV is getting shafted.

 

[neroden]

With the Model S body life expectancy of 25 years, and the bty pack half of that,

That was a lowball estimate. The Model S batteries will last 20 years. The main computer will fail first.

owners of Model S cars will demand battery replacements.

No. The batteries will still work. Roadster original batteries lasted slighlty over 10 years. S batteries have better thermal control.

Just like adding AP2 to AP1 Model S cars, which is also something Tesla will not do because it is cheaper to buy a new car.

Tesla has learned that its customers demand the best tech, and they have shown a willingness to provide it as a retrofit when it extends the life cycle of the vehicle. There's 2,000 roadsters and there will be 100s of thousands of Model S cars. So you bet, it'll happen en mass, just not yet.

Cheers!

If the MCU outlives the battery pack, then there would be enough cars to make battery replacement worthwhile.

But it doesn't and so there aren't. Tesla does not even like doing MCU upgrades, which are technically possible and which they have done for quite a few people.

 

[EVNow]

But you have to sanity check your results. 34k SR+ COGS vs. 49k LR-AWD COGS is not credible.

Because you have already concluded that the difference between their COGS is small. In other words, COGS and Margin of SR+ is not coming from financials but other things.

As I said earlier, there is simply not enough in the ER for us to figure out SR+ margin. Q2 ER should give us a better idea because of higher expected SR+ mix.

 

[neroden]

Look, I do also feel bullish about the future of Tesla. However, a company does need to be profitable. And Tesla has proven that they cannot be profitable even with delivering the expected amount of Model 3's.

Tesla still has not reached the expected 10k/week Model 3 production.

That was the profit point.

 

[Cosmacelf]

This is an accurate sentence, I'm afraid. "Once Tesla scales up to _______ cars per month, then $$$$" is a thing a lot of us (and the market) have been anticipating and here we are hoping that 90k might bring the quarter to break even. I get the market's reaction and people wondering if it's even possible to make mass market electric cars profitably. Time is on our side though. Every day brings more interest, acceptance, and inevitability on the demand side and Tesla gets better at making the cars on the supply side.

Exactly. Tesla manufacturing gets better all the time. They constantly find ways to improve margins. And the network effect on demand is real. Just as Apple had an army of evangelists, Tesla’s customers also evangelise.