Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[K_Dizzle]

Question If you buy a Tesla or any EV with cash you have made from shorting Tesla common equity are you a good person or a bad person Clearly you are fighting the climate issues, but you are profiting of the decline in the equity price

Also, while I agree with you I do not like hearing criticism of Wall Street only when the equity goes down, unless you can show praise of wall street when it was up

Go Tesla

Are you stupid ?

 

[scaesare]

The main point of the article was not about the insignificant number of shares sold. It was about his “absence” from the company. Not sure how that went right over your head.

You mean the article where the first part of the headline was about shares sold, and the lead in sentence was also about shares sold?

 

[neroden]

OT, personal.

July can’t come soon enough to see where Tesla is at.
One more month of downward pressure.

Unfortunately I'm playing a merger arb (the most delayed merger ever) which probably won't close before July. If it closed before Tesla shot back up, I'd free up a huge pile of money which I'd reinvest some of in Tesla. However, the return on the merger arb looks better than the short-term return on Tesla. So I sort of want Tesla to languish until September and *then* shoot up. I will not get that lucky.

 

[Captkerosene]

Tesla should communicate about the million mile design goal - not a promise, but at least we are trying.

I wish they

 

[sunny-value]

It hasn’t been spreading fear for the last 15-20 months. It’s only really just been predicting the future.

Reading your post and all the ones after makes me really glad I listened to the advice I heard from and took after I sold my early bought shares. I sold them during the go private fiasco last year in the high 300s. I have looked back wondering if I should redeploy but now I have kids in elementary and middle school and need to plan for their college. Paid the IRS and put the rest in cash for now but thinking about DRIP and DCF into vanguard starting a bit later this year. Its fine to do all this speculation on where the bottom will be with money you don't need or that won't affect your life if you lose. But you have to be real, this is a company it is impossible to put a real value on until they have a year or two of actual profits. Until then any number between 0 and 300 could be right, you can defend anything based on speculation of what might be in 10 years. The bottom line is no one knows what will happen in 2 much less 10 years even with index funds but with a single stock like this we know less than nothing.

 

[sunny-value]

OT, personal.



Unfortunately I'm playing a merger arb (the most delayed merger ever) which probably won't close before July. If it closed before Tesla shot back up, I'd free up a huge pile of money which I'd reinvest some of in Tesla. However, the return on the merger arb looks better than the short-term return on Tesla. So I sort of want Tesla to languish until September and *then* shoot up. I will not get that lucky.

You're not also doing BMY/CELG are you?! I was a CELG owner. Decided to sell around 95. That is also sitting in cash.

 

[Yeomen]

Question If you buy a Tesla or any EV with cash you have made from shorting Tesla common equity are you a good person or a bad person Clearly you are fighting the climate issues, but you are profiting of the decline in the equity price

Also, while I agree with you I do not like hearing criticism of Wall Street only when the equity goes down, unless you can show praise of wall street when it was up

Go Tesla

No, Likley not But this is not my first post here and I did what I asked so I want to know

And yes Likely here I will be considered Stupid

 

[Boomer19]

Stop spreading fear.

Keep your fear to yourself.

understand the knee jerk, but
no, @tivoboy not a troll fyi

 

[Joe F]

Teslas are meteoric.

There. Sounds better to me now.

 

[neroden]

Reading your post and all the ones after makes me really glad I listened to the advice I heard from and took after I sold my early bought shares. I sold them during the go private fiasco last year in the high 300s. I have looked back wondering if I should redeploy but now I have kids in elementary and middle school and need to plan for their college. Paid the IRS and put the rest in cash for now but thinking about DRIP and DCF into vanguard starting a bit later this year. Its fine to do all this speculation on where the bottom will be with money you don't need or that won't affect your life if you lose. But you have to be real, this is a company it is impossible to put a real value on until they have a year or two of actual profits. Until then any number between 0 and 300 could be right, you can defend anything based on speculation of what might be in 10 years. The bottom line is no one knows what will happen in 2 much less 10 years even with index funds but with a single stock like this we know less than nothing.

Some of us have an encylopedic knowledge of the energy and transportation industries *and* the related markets, a detailed knowledge of the inner workings of Tesla *and* its would-be competitors, and a working knowledge of finance, economics (both macro and micro), the mining industries, and so forth. We can make pretty accurate predictions in the longer term.

 

[neroden]

OT.

You're not also doing BMY/CELG are you?! I was a CELG owner. Decided to sell around 95. That is also sitting in cash.

Nope. GNW. All about international regulators. :-(

 

[goinfraftw]

I re-read this Wikipedia page: Paris Agreement - Wikipedia

...after reading it, does anyone else feel like we're all just armchair quarterbacks here on an already made win?

1. Ignoring the FUD, rationally understand that all countries (including SYRIA) decided to collaborate for the 1st time in history.
2. Paris Agreement is not legally bound, but collaboratively and consensus-ly (i.e. politically) bound.
3. At least $100B needs to be mobilized for climate change, worldwide, by 2020 going until 2025 ANNUALLY.
4. Agreement is bottom-up rather than enforced top-down across the planet.

There's a lot more I don't completely understand, but it's probably the most remarkable, world-wide, agreement human civilization has ever put together. I'm just going to ignore the FUD at this point; seems pretty contrived when taking the Paris Climate Accord into account fully.

 

[Sparky]

Passing in lanes 1-2, while legal, is more dangerous. People assume, wrongly, that they can shift into a “slower” lane without shoulder checking, whenever I’m passing in lane 1-2, I’m extra careful and give more margin of safety.

OT: Sorry, I should have been more explicit. Lane 1 is passing lane when there's 2 or more lanes. Lane 4 in my example is slow lane.

California Driver Handbook - Traffic Lanes

Choosing A Lane
Traffic lanes are often referred to by number. The left or “fast” lane is called the “Number 1 Lane.” The lane to the right of the “Number 1 Lane” is called the “Number 2 Lane,” then the “Number 3 Lane,” etc.

Example of numbered traffic lanes

 

[powertoold]

I read re-read this Wikipedia page: Paris Agreement - Wikipedia

...after reading it, does anyone else feel like we're all just armchair quarterbacks here on an already made win?

Tesla just needs to be financially independent for the next 2-5 years while the oil industry attacks it with its dying breath. Hopefully demand for zero emission cars skyrockets within that time.

 

[sunny-value]

Some of us have an encylopedic knowledge of the energy and transportation industries *and* the related markets, a detailed knowledge of the inner workings of Tesla *and* its would-be competitors, and a working knowledge of finance, economics (both macro and micro), the mining industries, and so forth. We can make pretty accurate predictions in the longer term.

What is your evidence that having knowledge of all those things actually improves prediction accuracy in the longer term?
And what is your evidence that being able to predict things accurately about discrete events in the future actually leads to an increase in investment performance? There are some pretty well-known long-term investors whose philosophy seems to be to make investments that would do well in a range of scenarios, wherein they implicitly acknowledge that their prediction ability in their (full-time) pursuit is imperfect. Is investing your full-time pursuit too?

 

[goinfraftw]

Tesla just needs to be financially independent for the next 2-5 years while the oil industry attacks it with its dying breath. Hopefully demand for zero emission cars skyrockets within that time.

Tesla bought that with the covertible notes offering with ~$5B in cash now, yeah?

 

[Nocturnal]

those Tesla owners numbers are interesting. 80% of Model 3 owners are men, which seems to make sense. This suggests that Model Y may give Tesla a huge boost in demand among women.

I read re-read this Wikipedia page: Paris Agreement - Wikipedia

...after reading it, does anyone else feel like we're all just armchair quarterbacks here on an already made win?

1. Ignoring the FUD, rationally understand that all countries (including SYRIA) decided to collaborate for the 1st time in history.
2. Paris Agreement is not legally bound, but collaboratively and consensus-ly (i.e. politically) bound.
3. At least $100B needs to be mobilized for climate change, worldwide, by 2020 going until 2025 ANNUALLY.
4. Agreement is bottom-up rather than enforced top-down across the planet.

There's a lot more I don't completely understand, but it's probably the most remarkable, world-wide, agreement human civilization has ever put together. I'm just going to ignore the FUD at this point; seems pretty contrived when taking the Paris Climate Accord into account fully.

And then a certain stable genius pulled us out.

 

[goinfraftw]

those Tesla owners numbers are interesting. 80% of Model 3 owners are men, which seems to make sense. This suggests that Model Y may give Tesla a huge boost in demand among women.

And then a certain stable genius pulled us out.

Not eligible to do so until 2020: United States withdrawal from the Paris Agreement - Wikipedia

 

[Boomer19]

fyi
spy lending about 2.4%
tsla lending about 1.875%

not enough to signal an accelerating drop in liquidity of available shares to short.

anticipating the short interest from 5/15 to 5/31 as price fell from 231.95 to 185.16 on friday with mostly high volume

ihor reports his estimates regularly. the nasdaq/finra report should be around 6/8-6/11

 

[GeoX750]

Well, I wish I had more to invest, but am now highly resistant to margin calls and comfy with the 2021 puts I sold. I honestly expect Q2 results to surprise the Street positively at this point, since it has been pure bear raid nonsense for weeks in the news.

What kind of numbers do you expect for Q2 that will positively surprise the Street and what basis is there that it is happening?

May deliveries in my area seem brisk (my office is near the Chicago SC), but reaching 90K Q2 deliveries seems like a stretch.