Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Driver Dave]

Considering all possibilities is way too simple.

I agree. It you consider all possibilities as equal, you get nothing.

In looking at TSLA:

What the company has done so far.
Elon as once in lifetime leader.
The future is in electric.
The competitors are floundering.
During growth, they have shown profitability moments (which is hard)

Thus the real plausible possibilities live in the "above where we are now" price range.

With the actual question being "what is the high or low of that range?"

 

[KarenRei]

Nafnlaus on Twitter

TSLAQ today:

 

[SO16]

I'm located in an area which is probably going to survive longer than average as civilizations around the world collapse (we are not coastal, have ample fresh water even after global warming, will be able to produce our own food supply, not subject to desert heat stress either) but once the dominoes start falling, it's hard to keep anything going.

If other areas are in worse shape, be prepared for an influx of people. I find it amazing when people say, “I don’t care if Miami Florida falls into the ocean. Their crazy anyway.” My response is, “where do you think those crazy people will move to? Most likely yours and my backyard.”

Their response: Silence accompanied by an “oh *sugar* look.

 

[UncaNed]

Don't worry. Your kids and grand kids will thank and honour you.

Not necessarily. Most grandparents have that one disrespectful little twit...

 

[anthonyj]

I’m still buying and not starting to reduce exposure until about $250. You are stealing the company at this price

 

[Tslynk67]

Nafnlaus on Twitter

TSLAQ today:

Welcome back, girlie!

 

[abasile]

OT

And you think it's safe enough?

Actually, no, for safety reasons, I prefer my family riding in Tesla vehicles rather than our old LEAF or other cars. The vast majority of our miles are Tesla miles. Living in a semi-rural area as we do, there are occasions when it’s helpful to have a “beater” vehicle. An older pickup truck used to fit the bill, but I refuse to own anything that burns gasoline, and the LEAF is very cheap to keep- there’s not much maintenance.

 

[Mike Smith]

Apple is reportedly looking to buy robotaxi start-up Drive.ai

 

[Todd Burch]

How come this forum is back to only people with greater than three posts participating? I miss all the newcomers...

 

[AMN]

Linette Lopez works for Business Insider, which is 100% owned by Axel Springer SE - a German company with close ties to the German auto industry.

Somebody please set up a bot and have it post this to every Linette's tweet and every response to her tweet. Karen, you online?

 

[The Blue Owl]

Mark is in a self-reflective mood today.

 

[pdq]

No one considers ALL possibilities. That has no meaning. To add value you have to do some kind of probabilistic risk assessment on a finite number of potential scenarios, quantitatively compare likelihoods and act accordingly.

A scenario where FCA begins selling significant numbers of EVs worldwide in 12 to 18 months is one that can be dismissed by inspection (“not possible").

I agree with you. It's all about risk assessment, which is why prudent investors pay attention to things like consistent profitability and growth, level of debt, EPS, FCF, etc. of any company that they invest in whether they are making cars or pharmaceuticals. Of course, not everyone is an investor, as some are speculators who ignore the fundamentals.

There seems to be a perception that no other car manufacturer in the world is actually close to producing EVs. A prudent investor would be paying attention to what's going on in the market at BMW, the VW Group (VW, Audi, Porsche) and be looking at things like this for a glimpse into the future:

Mercedes-Benz EQC (2019): Test drive in L.A.

So, if you are more of a speculator -- which is ok -- play the volatility, buy low, sell high, and make a bunch of money. It's all good.

 

[ZeApelido]

do you want to send them north or south?

East

 

[CyberDutchie]

seen quite a few people complaining about margin requirements increasing.

In case anyone wasn’t aware - you can purchase “Deep in the money” call options which gives you a similar leverage to Margin, with little in the way of premium cost.

For instance you can purchase a $50 Jan 2020 call for $147 (meaning a $197 stock price to break even) and you have almost 25% margin with none of the downsides of margin

Buying call options does nothing to any of us dealing with sudden increase in margin requirements from our brokers. They are completely unrelated. If my broker E*Trade increases the margin requirement from 45% to 55%, while I am at 50%, it means I need to increase my equity in my account, either by adding cash (to bring down margin) or add stock or options.

 

[Tslynk67]

OT: End of civilization due to climate change

I’ve been saying this for years. Billions of people will be displaced. Crop and agricultural patterns will change. Balances of power will change. There will be wars. Millions, 100’s of millions will die.

And then there’s the issue of the desalination of the seas – the North Atlantic conveyor will shut down, we will enter an ice-age in Northern Europe.

 

[CyberDutchie]

Pre-market volume almost 500K, seems higher than usual?

 

[mekberg]

Semi-OT. Someone is building PC water cooling hardware with injection molded parts, which while common in some other industries, is not so for the DIY open loop water cooling market. "Our manufacturing is done by a company that is specializing in very high end automotive such as Tesla for example" - nice to see Tesla being considered high end automotive by even those in entirely unrelated industries

OT

I like that somebody else also watches tech Jesus.

<3 Snowflake

 

[Krugerrand]

Never heard that. I know Bjorn Nyland posted a video of a BMW plugged into a European (CCS) Supercharger but of course not being able to complete the handshake and thus unable to start a charging session.

Do you have a link to the BMW discussion?

Cheers!

No don’t have a link. It was a few years ago, rumor about being seen having lunch/dinner together blah, blah, blah. Usual speculation here. Nothing concrete. And apparently no such conversations per EM now.

 

[Bobbyducati]

WAG for today: leaked info is bringing stock up premarket, will prob go up close to 210 in first half hour but will be suppressed and back down around 200 possibly below and slowly come back up around low 200s most of the day. i hope im wrong and it keeps going up tho.

 

[JusRelax]

Somebody please set up a bot and have it post this to every Linette's tweet and every response to her tweet. Karen, you online?

The bot would get blocked after 1 tweet....