Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

OT

Or do young people stop having kids all together?

Many can't afford to have kids. Don't get me started on income inequality in the US, go over to "Market Politics" for that...

 

[neroden]

This leads me to question how much of a demand drop off there will be due to the tax credit drop off. More and more average, non-Tesla folks (like my friend above) are finding out about the advantages of these great cars. I don't think they are going to let 2k or 4k of tax credit stand in their way.

I don't think there's ever been a real demand drop for Tesla due to a tax credit expiration. (For Nissan, some huge price changes like the removal of the Georgia incentive probably were permanent drops.)

Rather, I think that people who were planning to buy a car in July would instead try to get it in June to get the credit. Just common sense right?

 

[Kenypowa]

The clip doesn’t appear to be posted online yet, but there was a 3-minute story on the NBC Nightly News tonight about another driver in a Tesla (Model 3) who tied something to his steering wheel and allegedly fell asleep on the highway for about 30 miles.

The coverage itself wasn’t anti-Tesla biased at all, and even included Tesla’s response that AP is intended to be used while paying attention. They did mention that “some motorists had seen enough”.

Probably not too relevant to the TSLA share price, but I had two thoughts watching it:

1. Wow, 30 miles? Not bad. And
2. PLEASE Tesla drivers, stop being so stupid. You idiots are making the rest of us look bad...and you’re gonna get AP handicapped even further because of your stupidity...

Here is the clip

Shocking new video appears to show man asleep behind wheel of self-driving car on LA freeway

 

[Artful Dodger]

Don't know how valid this is but the author claims to have information from Panasonic that they will be providing cells for China GF3
Tesla To Use Panasonic Cells In China: A Costly And Risky Option - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Panasonic themselves said they would provide a small number of cells from GF1. There's no news here (Seeking Clicks):

Tesla, Panasonic to seek productivity gains before new battery investments - Reuters

"Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk also said in November the U.S. company would manufacture all its battery modules and packs at its new Shanghai factory and planned to diversify its sources.

"The Nikkei report said Panasonic would also suspend its planned investment in Tesla’s new Shanghai plant and would instead provide technical support and a small number of batteries from the Gigafactory."​

 

[CalX]

Panasonic themselves said they would provide a small number of cells from GF1. There's no news here (Seeking Clicks):

Tesla, Panasonic to seek productivity gains before new battery investments - Reuters

"Tesla Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk also said in November the U.S. company would manufacture all its battery modules and packs at its new Shanghai factory and planned to diversify its sources.

"The Nikkei report said Panasonic would also suspend its planned investment in Tesla’s new Shanghai plant and would instead provide technical support and a small number of batteries from the Gigafactory."​

There was an article in the past that a Panasonic JV in China was hoping to supply the cells.

 

[Darkfox021]

I don't think there's ever been a real demand drop for Tesla due to a tax credit expiration. (For Nissan, some huge price changes like the removal of the Georgia incentive probably were permanent drops.)

Rather, I think that people who were planning to buy a car in July would instead try to get it in June to get the credit. Just common sense right?

I don't see it as a demand drop off. It's a demand Pull Forward.

For example, we have a lease that ends in October. We are trading it in with negative equity to buy in June because the additional Federal tax credit offsets the negative equity, plus we have a ($2000) State incentive that may run out of funding by October.

 

[EVNow]

I don't see it as a demand drop off. It's a demand Pull Forward.

For example, we have a lease that ends in October. We are trading it in with negative equity to buy in June because the additional Federal tax credit offsets the negative equity, plus we have a ($2000) State incentive that may run out of funding by October.

All this works in mysterious ways.

I intended to buy the SR for $35k. But because our state incentives were about to end (about $3k) - and then the possibility of federal tax credit ending before state incentive was reinstated - I bought LR @ 50k. So, paid $15k more to save $3k

ps : Turned out I was mostly right. State incentive didn't get reinstated before fed tax credit got cut. SR was not available before fed tax credit cut, only MR was.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Starting not in 10 years, starting near-future but extending out 10-20 years. That's the story behind all the hot companies with big multiples (Uber, Bynd, Pinterest, etc etc). If you want Tesla to be valued like an OEM then do you think the current $38B market cap is fair? Of course it is. But that's not how we value it, we value it on future potential, discounting cash flows. The vision has to be huge or else I don't see how anyone can justify a much higher market cap. The vision is huge if robotaxi is included but Wall St doesn't know how to value that.
I see batteries as a luxury. We cannot have 100MM cars sold yearly each w/ their own battery pack. That alone would probably create a new environmental disaster. How many batteries per car? 7k? times 100MM cars = 700B batteries out there? Bad. We need batteries for the premium segment. Hybrid for the mass market. Or very small battery packs and short range for tiny urban cars; ubquitious chargers to make it feasible.

Lol, you're completely off the rails here with Tesla's vision:

• Autonomy allows 10 M cars to replace 100 M
• EVs with 1 M mile lifecycles use 1/10th the resources of ICE cars
• combining the 2 means using 1/100th the resources of the current fossil fleet

Your solution does none of this. Instead, it:

• retains the ICE engine (preserving demand for oil)
• does not allow a path to eliminate carbon emissions

Your ideas might have sounded reasonable in 1998. Today, they're underscoped. By 2030, they will be obviously dangerous.

 

[Buckminster]

So we agree then. The trend is that fewer young people drive. I gave a couple of examples. Unless you have some evidence that this isn't true, why are you arguing?

Owning a car is seriously expensive, and pointless in many cases since the advent of TaaS. My kids don't even rely on TaaS. The older one uses the bus and walking to get where he wants to go, in the suburbs. He says he might consider getting a car when it drives itself, although he could easily afford to buy a Model S if he wanted to. The younger is a grad student and rarely needs to go anywhere so I can't see him wanting to drive in the foreseeable future.

My knowledge of other youngsters around that age is that this sort of thing is not uncommon. Many don't drive and have no intention of learning to do so. This was simply unthinkable when I was young. It's a significant change.

This is fascinating. I can live without my car mostly. But I still need it once every 2 weeks. Robotaxis will be fine for me. However, I didn't imagine folks in the US being able to live without cars for decades. Walmart etc. are so screwed.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

How many batteries per car? 7k? times 100MM cars = 700B batteries out there? Bad.

Sorry, why is this bad? Or, more accurately, why is this worse than ~100MM cars spewing CO2(and CO and...) into the atmosphere?

You’re stating that would be “Bad.”, but provide no evidence for that. Even if it devastated some local environments(yet to be proven), that’s still less than the wholesale, worldwide destruction worsening climate change will do.

 

[EVNow]

So we agree then. The trend is that fewer young people drive. I gave a couple of examples. Unless you have some evidence that this isn't true, why are you arguing?

Owning a car is seriously expensive, and pointless in many cases since the advent of TaaS. My kids don't even rely on TaaS. The older one uses the bus and walking to get where he wants to go, in the suburbs. He says he might consider getting a car when it drives itself, although he could easily afford to buy a Model S if he wanted to. The younger is a grad student and rarely needs to go anywhere so I can't see him wanting to drive in the foreseeable future.

My knowledge of other youngsters around that age is that this sort of thing is not uncommon. Many don't drive and have no intention of learning to do so. This was simply unthinkable when I was young. It's a significant change.

Yes, one more anecdotal evidence here. In my team meeting with several recent grads, they were asking around to see if anyone drove a car to go to a nearby restaurant or they had to call a Uber. Many said they didn't even have a Driver's license.

 

[Electroman]

Lithium is a very small part of the batteries. Is there really a problem getting lithium ?

Dream or nightmare? Why India should postpone its electric vehicle plans for ten years

Can the wise men/women out here help me fight this FUD please..? it says, India should not think about EVs for a long time due to shortage of Cobalt and Lithium.

I understand that Cobalt percentage has come down dramatically in current Tesla cells, and the expectation it would reduce even more to a level where it not of any concern at all.

Lithium is abundant. Although much of it is coming from Chile today, many parts of the world, Litium is available for relatively easy extraction including US. Can someone expand on this?

 

[kengchang]

Yes, I remember a big announcement about that version of the wall connector, and it being on the website, and it just disappeared. I think there were some actual differences, because if it has a permanent NEMA plug it shouldn’t have the dip switches to select something else. I recall there was little or no difference in the price, which seems weird because you would be getting something less flexible, but able to plug into a standard outlet.

I suspect as you say that they ran out of inventory and removed it from the website.

I actually scored one when it showed up in the online store.

 

[SPadival]

I have double E degree and have designed built tested fixed much more expensive boards for mass production high tech test systems.

If you cant swap an ecu in under 10 minutes you are fired.

Tesla FSD computer has a glycol line passing through it for liquid cooling. That complicates life a bit.

 

[hobbes]

Here is the clip

Shocking new video appears to show man asleep behind wheel of self-driving car on LA freeway

30mi with driver sleeping - good benchmark for AP !

 

[CorneliusXX]

I got a wink from Elon when I suggested that Maxwell technology is also on our side along with Newton and Maxwell.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Please don’t read too much into this at all

Maybe he just wants to flirt with you.

 

[dqd88]

Lol, you're completely off the rails here with Tesla's vision:

• Autonomy allows 10 M cars to replace 100 M
• EVs with 1 M mile lifecycles use 1/10th the resources of ICE cars
• combining the 2 means using 1/100th the resources of the current fossil fleet

Your solution does none of this. Instead, it:

• retains the ICE engine (preserving demand for oil)
• does not allow a path to eliminate carbon emissions

Your ideas might have sounded reasonable in 1998. Today, they're underscoped. By 2030, they will be obviously dangerous.

We must take it step by step. If you want every car on the road to be EV it's going to take many years, decades. It is more feasible to start today with batteries at premium level and hybrid at low level (doable today); that will curb emissions a lot. Then as battery capacity expands and costs reduce, it can fill out the mass market. By then though autonomy will be ready.

A couple things going on here: reality and stock price. I agree that autonomy, in reality, will allow for fewer resources used overall (good for the environment), and will create a profit machine in Tesla. But the market will not price in autonomy until it's near complete and the financials can be studied in a more tangible way. So, how do you, as an investor, expect the (short-sighted) market to value Tesla today? Just on the EV/product potential? We're sitting around saying this should be a $70 B market cap today. Based on what - 3 current models plus 4 on deck? The narrative has to get back to "Tesla is the future of transportation. A $1T/year TAM". Can't get there with only 7 models and one nameplate (unless this is viewed as tech company, but increasingly it's viewed as an auto manufacturer). Yes, can get there with autonomy, but then we're back to - the market won't price it into the SP.

 

[Tslynk67]

Maybe he's positioning to become one of the new board members

Wouldn't be a bad pick IMO - certainly would bring more to the table than Murdoch.

Plus would be worth it just to watch the CNBC video when they announce it, plus the shorties would go apoplectic.

 

[dqd88]

Sorry, why is this bad? Or, more accurately, why is this worse than ~100MM cars spewing CO2(and CO and...) into the atmosphere?

You’re stating that would be “Bad.”, but provide no evidence for that. Even if it devastated some local environments(yet to be proven), that’s still less than the wholesale, worldwide destruction worsening climate change will do.

Because eventually we'll need to dispose of those batteries. Tesla perhaps will do it responsibly/ecologically, but doubtful that all the other companies will.
I'm not suggesting that we should tolerate gas cars. Autonomy will fix a lot of that. Create less need for more cars overall, as Artful pointed out.
If you look at transportation by use case - we need to optimize around uses - cars for distance/freeway/families. Tiny cars/shared transport for urban. Look at all the Jump bikes and scooters. There's a gap between those and cars. In places like India they use rickshaws and such. Maybe that's what we need more of

 

[McMountain]

Lol, you're completely off the rails here with Tesla's vision:

• Autonomy allows 10 M cars to replace 100 M
• EVs with 1 M mile lifecycles use 1/10th the resources of ICE cars
• combining the 2 means using 1/100th the resources of the current fossil fleet

I am very careful engaging one of the big posters here but have to point out:

* Autonomy allows 10 M cars to replace 100 M doing the same amount of miles as 100 M (or rather a bit more to drive from pick-up point to pick up point).and using the same amount of fuel (whether electricity or fossil)

So - good, but not quite that good.