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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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TSLA bought SCTY to wind it down quietly behind closed doors instead of suffering a messy public collapse that would have dinged Musk's halo and made it harder for Tesla to raise money. I said so at the time and everything they've done since has followed the script, except I figured they'd be down to a skeleton crew within one year instead of two.
 
TSLA bought SCTY to wind it down quietly behind closed doors instead of suffering a messy public collapse that would have dinged Musk's halo and made it harder for Tesla to raise money. I said so at the time and everything they've done since has followed the script, except I figured they'd be down to a skeleton crew within one year instead of two.
They need to get the solar shingles going. Until then they don't have a unique product. EM is all about unique products, he doesn't care about being a "me too" producer.
 
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You can just search "tesla referral code" on the web and get a code.
Of course you can. That doesn't change the fact that those YouTube channels drive a LOT of positive information out there for prospective buyers. Search Tesla on youtube. Without them you would see all negative videos, with them it's mostly "wow, this car is great" and "101 reasons why Tesla is amazing".

Same applies to individuals. Giving people a very cheap incentive (what does that free supercharging cost tesla, 100 bucks?) to try and get people to buy is a great thing.

Lately been seeing quite a few Cadillac TV commercials saying that their Super Cruise is the first hands free driving (though in the commercial later they say on limited access highway only). And only "OVER 130,000 miles of freeway mapped". Also they claim it uses lidar but the car in the video lacks the ugly hat box on the roof. Ok I think I see it is limited to limited access highways they have pre-mapped with lidar. So it can't figure out how to really drive on it's own and apparently never will. I don't understand how this is a selling point. And it requires OnStar which they include for free for 3 years then you have to buy it. But I guess this solves the not having the ugly hat box on the roof.

You can find "FIND SUPER CRUISE™ FREEWAYS NEAR YOU" ( Not in Alaska or Hawaii at all) anywhere as long as long as it is in the US and part of Canada.
View attachment 420987

Super Cruise - Hands Free Driving | Cadillac Ownership
It's a selling point because they say so. Marketing! ;)
 
So, at the end of the penultimate week of Q1, Norway deliveries stood at 4653 (thanks to waybackmachine for that):

upload_2019-6-19_21-10-50.png


Now, with 2 days left in the penultimate week the count is 3813:

upload_2019-6-19_21-12-59.png


It wouldn't be unreasonable to assume 600 deliveries by the end of the weekend, which would bring us to the 4400 region, very close.

So depends really what's in the pipe as there was clearly a huge push in the final week, but right now it's tracking very close to Q1.
 
Imho there’s a big difference between Elon answering ‘will consider’ to a suggestion on Twitter and Freds clickbaity title ‘Tesla is considering’. The last one usually implies a self initiated plan, the first one definitely not.

Indeed that has always been a problem with news reporting. Quite frequently a news-maker is quoted with the implication that he has initiated a significant announcement, rather than just mulling over a somewhat indefinite response to a question. Headline editors are particular egregious, especially in this era of click-baiting.
 
Q2 S&P is interesting. It would be surprising if they manage it somehow, but if they don’t then it might be another long 3 quarters before S&P and by then who knows how much the company would be worth after Q3, Q4 profits, FSD release, GF3 and Truck reveal.

Any ideas how much deferred revenue FSD is?
Maybe we have underestimated costs savings for HW3 and raven engines?!

Let’s say they do -$200M from normal operations, $200M from FCA and $250M from FSD?

I can see the argument for why Tesla might want to try to shoot for it, game it to the most so they can get rid of the shorts who are scaring away customers and sabotaging in every way they can and to be able to raise more capital to fund insurance, robottaxi, EU GF4, Semi etc.
 
Looks like we're starting to see very slow net short covering. If short interest momentum is seen to have shifted it should be very hard for shorts to launch concerted attacks. Shorts aren't all in cahoots, and many would look to take advantage of any attacks as an opportunity to cover.

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter


Indeed, if the "larger game" theory we've discussed for years on TMC regarding that massive short position in Tesla (for over seven unbroken years, including the 2013 launch from ~$40 to ~$180, a far outlier large short position) is correct, not all of the short position is in cahoots, just most of it.
 
Indeed, if the "larger game" theory we've discussed for years on TMC regarding that massive short position in Tesla (for over seven unbroken years, including the 2013 launch from ~$40 to ~$180, a far outlier large short position) is correct, not all of the short position is in cahoots, just most of it.
Seems like that would be ripe for a prisoner's dilemma scenario.
 
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Dealing with this right now as a board member of my condo building.

Building is from late 1800s - converted to condos in 1999. Getting suitable supply to the parking garage with a sub-panel is going to cost roughly $30k. From there it will be up to unit owners to pay for the line/conduit from the sub-panel to their parking space. I suspect we'll get push back from many owners, but three of the five board members own Model 3s so it's likely to happen.

If you get too much push back, suggest that it's all funded out of the general condo fund and have all the conduit/outlets installed at once (it will be a lot cheaper that way). Then there can be a "latecomers" fee (like municipalities, counties and PUD's often use to fund extensions of service). The latecomers fees can be paid back into the general condo fund as each circuit is turned on at the request of the resident.

This way the project gets built in the most cost-effective manner (rather than piecemealing the individual circuits as needed), the value of the units should rise (because EVSE is available and easily activated), and those without EV's will feel like the EV drivers are paying "their share". Really, EV's are going to be so common in less than a decade that condos without access to EVSE are going to suffer.
 
Chanos' Kynikos Associates long on Tesla put options on March 31 -Amended SEC filing

June 19 (Reuters) - Jim Chanos' Kynikos Associates was long on Tesla Inc put options, not call options, on March 31, according to an amended Securities and Exchange filing on Wednesday.

The filing restated a May 15 filing by Kynikos, and shows that the firm held put options in Tesla, iRobot Corp and Coca-Cola Co on March 31. Kynikos' earlier filing had said the firm held call options on those companies. (Reporting by Jennifer Ablan; editing by Jonathan Oatis)


Chanos' Kynikos Associates long on Tesla put options on March 31 -Amended SEC filing
 
Chanos' Kynikos Associates long on Tesla put options on March 31 -Amended SEC filing

June 19 (Reuters) - Jim Chanos' Kynikos Associates was long on Tesla Inc put options, not call options, on March 31, according to an amended Securities and Exchange filing on Wednesday.

The filing restated a May 15 filing by Kynikos, and shows that the firm held put options in Tesla, iRobot Corp and Coca-Cola Co on March 31. Kynikos' earlier filing had said the firm held call options on those companies. (Reporting by Jennifer Ablan; editing by Jonathan Oatis)


Chanos' Kynikos Associates long on Tesla put options on March 31 -Amended SEC filing

i’m sure it was an honest mistake
 
TSLA bought SCTY to wind it down quietly behind closed doors instead of suffering a messy public collapse that would have dinged Musk's halo and made it harder for Tesla to raise money. I said so at the time and everything they've done since has followed the script, except I figured they'd be down to a skeleton crew within one year instead of two.
So in other words you were wrong.
 
Seems like that would be ripe for a prisoner's dilemma scenario.

-if this is what has been going on- "paying" billions into a short position to try to slow down the move to sustainable energy and transport is the smallest of peanuts if it works for even a year for the massive industries (each multi-trillion dollar) Tesla is working on disrupting.

The short position is helpful to the "controversializing*" of Musk, Tesla, and EVs, AND it makes Tesla's capital raises more expensive. I think both of these have bought significant cover from criticism for the global ice-makers stalling on EVs for years past and years to come (ie narratives such as "Tesla/Elon are a mess," "still can't make money on EVs," by cover for ICE incumbents' foot dragging re moving to EVs). Of course, such stalling has been and will continue to be massive benefit to the fossil fuel industry (well, their perceptions of narrow material interests).

*this is a term from Sharyl Attkisson, who quit an extremely successful career at CBS network news due to her frustration of how commercial interests (the requests of sponsors) were determining what airs and what does not air on major media outlets. what's gone on with Tesla misinformation, in accelerating fashion over the past several years comes across as almost certainly a text book example of the forces distorting media programming, and their techniques, including this concept of "controversializing."

Remember Elon's appearance on Joe Rogan? The "click bait"/"bad news sells" move would have been, "Billionaire Genius Entrepreneur Declares We Are All Going To Die at the Hands of AI" with details of how Elon described for 20 minutes, at the start of the podcast, literally going to congress and all 50 governors and no one listening to his directly warning that fact finding and a response are needed today or we will all die due to AI. Instead of such headlines, we got an epic flow of pearl clutching media efforts trying to "controversialize" Musk for taking a puff of a joint (a brief moment an hour plus into the podcast) when most American adults have no issue with marijuana (IIRC, most have smoked it), and the state of California, where this occurred, considers it legal to smoke).

here's some background on Sharyl,

"Sharyl Attkisson is a nonpartisan investigative journalist, five-time Emmy Award winner, and recipient of the Edward R. Murrow award for investigative reporting. She is author of two New York Times best sellers: “The Smear: How Shady Political Operatives and Fake News Control What You See, What You Think and How You Vote,” and “Stonewalled.” "

About | Sharyl Attkisson


Highly recommend researching Sharyl's experiences and analysis to Elon Musk, and Tesla's board (TMCers as time permits as well).
 
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