Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dondy]

I remind that vast majority of the real bears (the banks) shorting $TESLA hold or control significant Tesla stock (and expanding it regularly). Most of them do both sides simultaneously and aim to target retailers money. Both sides.
Your money.
The actual stock flow reflects (since the beginning) not Tesla's actual market position, money situation, demand etc. but call/put balance.
Literally.
Banks having necessary scale and big enough cushion to fall are able to exploit it at full, loosing only commission to the Exchange at worse when buying/ selling shares between bank accounts and daughter broker companies.

I will repeat the same I have wrote 6m ago, don't expect "shorts squeeze", don't expect quick stock growth or any actual changes in media narratives or positions.

As I long it is not Wall Street controlled company Tesla will be pulled down.

 

[Fact Checking]

I was hoping this would happen: Dana Hull is actually a competent journalist who used to cover Tesla fairly and largely positively many years ago. (I even saw a photo of her with Elon, from the early Tesla days - cannot find it anymore.)

Then something happened, and Dana Hull not only turned negative but embraced TSLAQ, and wrote scathing articles that balanced on the boundary of intentional falsehoods.

Now the pendulum might be swinging back, and I hope Tesla PR can use those cracks in the MSM TSLAQ bubble and start a proper public relations operation to counter the disinformation campaign?

Anyway, this is another piece to add to the mysterious puzzle of negative Tesla coverage @ZachShahan wrote about recently...

Just to document this in more detail, after much searching I finally found the 2014 photo of Elon Musk and Dana Hull:

Tesla 'gigafactory' will 'change Nevada forever,' Gov. Sandoval says​

The journalist with sunglasses, to the right of Elon, is Dana Hull. Not a hint of a TSLAQ slant in her articles:

2014: "Tesla to build ‘gigafactory’ near Reno" (Silicon Valley, syndicated)​

Dana Hull had high level access to Tesla executives and she wrote fair, balanced articles until the 2016-2017 time frame:

2015: "Reno Bets Tesla Gigafactory Will Erase Image as Downmarket Vegas" (Bloomberg)

2016: "Inside the Gigafactory That Will Decide Tesla’s Fate: Elon Musk’s enormous, $5 billion factory is seriously ramping up production" (Bloomberg)​

(I didn't find the above photo originally, because this photo appears in a story written by another journalist, and Dana Hull was neither referenced in the article nor tagged in the photo.)

So those were the happy years: Tesla was an early bird of the progressive green revolution and Dana Hull had a good nose for the success story it would become and gained good access, and she probably also shares the "green future" conviction that underlies Tesla.

Then something happened: my primary guess is that because Dana Hull appears to have liberal political views, she didn't take kindly to Elon's half-hearted sucking up to the Trump administration (the Trump Economic Advisory Council farce for example) and Elon's criticism of biased media coverage which was eerily similar to Trump's bashing of "MSM bias"?

I.e. after that point Tesla and Elon's personal actions in particular lost any "presumption of innocence" and "benefit of the doubt" in Dana Hull's reporting, and in an escalating spiral of responses Tesla PR might have withdrawn Dana Hull's access to Tesla executives, factories and exclusive information - which didn't improve the tone of her Tesla reporting. But I'm really just guessing there.

Another addition to @ZachShahan's collection of "negative media bias against Tesla" puzzle pieces? Also a shout-out to @bonnie - I was pretty harsh with Dana Hull in past comments.

 

[Boomer19]

Here is the exact clip.

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

Must watch! @elonmusk @ValueAnalyst1 @tesla

Watch this CNBC clown trying to cook up some sugar about Tesla’s record delivery and then just simply gave up.

Oh the AGONY!

You can literally feel his agony.

Too funny to be true. Stay tuned to more "ClownShow" on @CNBC T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

And transcript

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

"Um... Gene, does it concern you though...
also...
when you think about
um...
just deliveries here...
um...
you know, actually, I gotta give up.
I’m sorry, why don’t you guys take this"

Cat must have got his tongue... what a clown

yeah that’s dan nathan
he’s more of a 50/50 guy depending on the scenario. unlike tim seymour who’s always 100% short tesla. nathans not that bad. neither is guy adami. or melissa lee. carter worth only cares about TA, so whatever as far as he’s concerned.

i wouldn’t make too much of that segment.

they actually brought up some good points. even gene munster brought up points of concern.
it’s not like we’re out of the woods yet and there is some clear victory.
also, 7% stock movement isn’t a blowout. it’s actually inline with what was anticipated (i think i saw ~$17 implied move either way after P&D results)

now, anyone here that knows me knows how i feel about cnbc. i’m not an apologist, to put it gently.

 

[Sean Wagner]

I have to say, Elon gained a lot of credibility back. Narrative/sentiment will soon shift and Tesla will finally enjoy a nice run up, not based on hype, but real numbers and real results. Good job Tesla

It helps that his tweetscapades seem to have ended. While Elon is essential for driving Tesla to identify and tackle challenges in keeping with the mission, the enterprise is dependent on so many people's hard work - I'm glad the focus has shifted back to what matters.

Happy new Tesla / EV owners. Quote ... / I made a point of stopping at a Supercharger on the way home. I spent a ridiculous amount of time going over my screen and the charging unit, looking for a way to pay. Couldn't figure it out to save my life. So I just plugged the charger into my car, and it simply worked**. That was an unreal moment. / ... Unquote, Source Tesla delivered a record number of cars in the second quarter

 

[TheTalkingMule]

As I long it is not Wall Street controlled company Tesla will be pulled down.

I don't see any rationale for SP staying below ATH once earnings are announced and profitability at a decent production rate is re-confirmed. Being $140 below ATH and extremely shorted, how is a slow squeeze above $400 possibly avoided?

 

[Boomer19]

I remind that vast majority of the real bears (the banks) shorting $TESLA hold or control significant Tesla stock (and expanding it regularly). Most of them do both sides simultaneously and aim to target retailers money. Both sides.
Your money.
The actual stock flow reflects (since the beginning) not Tesla's actual market position, money situation, demand etc. but call/put balance.
Literally.
Banks having necessary scale and big enough cushion to fall are able to exploit it at full, loosing only commission to the Exchange at worse when buying/ selling shares between bank accounts and daughter broker companies.

I will repeat the same I have wrote 6m ago, don't expect "shorts squeeze", don't expect quick stock growth or any actual changes in media narratives or positions.

As I long it is not Wall Street controlled company Tesla will be pulled down.

correct, until they decide to jump on the bandwagon, which i don’t think is about to happen quite yet. however, still safe to hold and wait i believe. keep cash for buying opps

 

[Fact Checking]

Very interesting pre-market TSLA price action: there's been 4-5 big spikes of 10k-30k share sales that tried to mark down the ~$240 after-market price from yesterday, one of those spikes dropped the price by $2 - but it was consistently marked back up by buyers.

(The reason I think it's conscious price manipulation, not genuine selling is the aggressiveness of those spikes: most market participants who want to sell the news would want to do it in high liquidity regular trading, not early trading - and especially they wouldn't do it in such a visible fashion.)

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

There's a couple of things I can think of:

• Japan drives on the left, so they couldn't buy the Model 3 until very recently.
• While it's indeed a large economy, car sales are comparatively lower, new car sales were ~5 million in 2018 - while the U.S. market is 16 million new vehicles per year and the European market is ~15 million new vehicles per year.
  
• Japan also has a history of being rather protective of its auto sector and 80%+ of sales go to domestic brands.

So I think Japan is important, and could become a big early adopter of the Model 3 as you suggest, but addressable market is probably on the order of magnitude of say Germany, France or Great Britain.

Another thing to consider is Japanese people buy super small cars. To start with, many Japanese people are relatively small in terms of size and height.
So the next Model 4 would be a better fit for many Japanese.

 

[SO16]

Just to document this in more detail, after much searching I finally found the 2014 photo of Elon Musk and Dana Hull:

Tesla 'gigafactory' will 'change Nevada forever,' Gov. Sandoval says​

The journalist with sunglasses, to the right of Elon, is Dana Hull. Not a hint of a TSLAQ slant in her articles:

2014: "Tesla to build ‘gigafactory’ near Reno" (Silicon Valley, syndicated)​

Dana Hull had high level access to Tesla executives and she wrote fair, balanced articles until the 2016-2017 time frame:

2015: "Reno Bets Tesla Gigafactory Will Erase Image as Downmarket Vegas" (Bloomberg)

2016: "Inside the Gigafactory That Will Decide Tesla’s Fate: Elon Musk’s enormous, $5 billion factory is seriously ramping up production" (Bloomberg)​

(I didn't find the above photo originally, because this photo appears in a story written by another journalist, and Dana Hull was neither referenced in the article nor tagged in the photo.)

So those were the happy years: Tesla was an early bird of the progressive green revolution and Dana Hull had a good nose for the success story it would become and gained good access, and she probably also shares the "green future" conviction that underlies Tesla.

Then something happened: my primary guess is that because Dana Hull appears to have liberal political views, she didn't take kindly to Elon's half-hearted sucking up to the Trump administration (the Trump Economic Advisory Council farce for example) and Elon's criticism of biased media coverage which was eerily similar to Trump's bashing of "MSM bias"?

I.e. after that point Tesla and Elon's personal actions in particular lost any "presumption of innocence" and "benefit of the doubt" in Dana Hull's reporting, and in an escalating spiral of responses Tesla PR might have withdrawn Dana Hull's access to Tesla executives, factories and exclusive information.

Another addition to @ZachShahan's collection of "negative media bias against Tesla" puzzle pieces? Also a shout-out to @bonnie - I was pretty harsh with Dana Hull in past comments.

Dana probably realizes the writing is on the wall and is undeniable that Tesla is doing remarkably well. For journalists to STILL bash Tesla at this point is only going to make them look even more foolish in the long run. Dana is being opportunistic here and that’s it. If she was a true journalist, she would not let her personal feelings of other issues get in the way of the facts of the topic she is reporting on.

 

[anthonyj]

I don't see any rationale for SP staying below ATH once earnings are announced and profitability at a decent production rate is re-confirmed. Being $140 below ATH and extremely shorted, how is a slow squeeze above $400 possibly avoided?

All of the people that bought at $380 will get out again at $380, also shorting or selling at $380 has been a very profitable trade, so that’s what I think causes the $380 ceiling. Need some massive news to push through that wall

 

[Fact Checking]

Dana probably realizes the writing is on the wall and is undeniable that Tesla is doing remarkably well.

So based on the review of the historic evolution of Dana Hull's Tesla reporting I'm tending towards the opinion that @bonnie tried to convey a couple of months ago: that Dana Hull is genuine, and that the conflict between Elon and her and her pivoting to TSLAQ arguments is unfortunate and possibly reversible.

This view also appears to be largely in line with what @ZachShahan expressed in this recent article:

Why Do The NYTimes & Other Large Media Outlets Get Tesla & EVs So Wrong? | CleanTechnica​

Tesla needs all the allies they can find in the EV revolution, the clock is ticking - there's no time to keep grudges.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Another thing to consider is Japanese people buy super small cars. To start with, many Japanese people are relatively small in terms of size and height.
So the next Model 4 would be a better fit for many Japanese.

Note (pun intended) that the top 4 best-selling cars in Japan in 2019Q1 and 6 of the top 10 were kei cars.

Honda N-BOX (66,001) sold 61% more than the best-selling non-kei (Nissan Note, 41,005).

2 of the top 4 non-kei are subcompacts.

 

[jerry33]

I have heard/read that stocks can split when they get high in cost per share, and of course if they purchase their own stocks back than there would be less post split.

Is there something negative associated to that process I'm unaware of?

If they spend money on stock, that money can't be spent on expansion or improvement. There's just no reason for them to buy back stock at this time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So the next Model 4 Model 2 would be a better fit for many Japanese.

FTFY.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Elon replied to the fake capitulation of the parody TeslaCharts account though. (Which parody account is hilarious btw.)

The TSLAQ TeslaCharts account is:

TeslaCharts @TeslaCharts
​

the parody account is:

TeslaCharts @TesIaCharts​

Note the homoglyphs: "l" (small L) vs. "I" (capital I).

Elon replied to the parody account.

And the "original" TeslaCharts has changed his display name to TESLAcharts, LMAO

 

[ggies07]

Adam Jonas, with his Morgan Stanley-feet ice cold in Guadalajara Mexico, stood puzzling and puzzling, how could it be so? It came without demand. It came without a full tax credit. It came without executives, toilet paper or sleight of hand. And he puzzled and puzzled 'till his puzzler was sore. Then the Jonas thought of something he hadn't before. What if Tesla, he thought, is a whole lot more. Perhaps, just perhaps, it's not a niche. For short sellers, won't that be a real b**ch...

View attachment 425763

 

[Boomer19]

JMP Securities maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Market Perform and target $347 Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Morgan Stanley maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Equalweight and target $230
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Goldman Sachs maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Sell and target $158
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

UBS maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Sell and target $160
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Nomura/Instinet maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Neutral and target $300
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Credit Suisse maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Underperform and target $189
Past Rating: Underperform
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Baird maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Outperform and target $355
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

BofA/Merrill Lynch maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Underperform and target $225
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Canaccord Genuity maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Buy and target $394
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Bernstein maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Market Perform and target $325
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

 

[jerry33]

While I think many will survive, in name at least, bankruptcy/reorganization and a reallocation of their factory space and workforce to pure EV manufacturing would probably accelerate the EV transition, rather significantly.

In name only, just like Firestone, BFG, and Uniroyal (among others). The brand is still there but the owners are different. I don't really call that surviving.

 

[jerry33]

A little OT, but since its pre market thought I would ask about something I find curious.

Why is there a lack of interest amongst Tesla investors about the potential for Model 3 sales in Japan, the worlds 3rd largest economy?

Is it related to the nationalistic pride for home grown auto brands? The reason I ask is that the exact same thing was said about the iPhone (everyone said Japan will never embrace a non-Japanese cellphone maker). What eventuated was that iPhone actually achieved 50% penetration in Japan, one of its best markets.

It seems to me that Japan is a nation of informed consumers with good taste, it seems like that would lead to good sales for the model 3.

Probably because there is a lot of expense involved in displacing the current automakers and their ties to the government (which is far stronger than the N.A. Dealers Association). Apple could do it because they had a lot of cash. Tesla will later, but right now it would be a drain on their resources that could be used more effectively in other areas. It will just take more time in Japan.

 

[Chickenlittle]

JMP Securities maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Market Perform and target $347 Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Morgan Stanley maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Equalweight and target $230
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Goldman Sachs maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Sell and target $158
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

UBS maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Sell and target $160
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Nomura/Instinet maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Neutral and target $300
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Credit Suisse maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Underperform and target $189
Past Rating: Underperform
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Baird maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Outperform and target $355
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

BofA/Merrill Lynch maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Underperform and target $225
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Canaccord Genuity maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Buy and target $394
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

Bernstein maintained Tesla (TSLA) coverage with Market Perform and target $325
Issuance Date: 2019-07-03

You get what you deserve when you listen|read analyst statements