Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

Just look at it go! Almost as much as California's insurance premiums after the last few quakes.

 

[PickleRick]

Getting in is the easy part. Knowing when to get out is the tricky part. Not Advice.

I have a pretty good idea on getting out, so no worries there. I have bought what I have intended to buy, will not be buying more and if the worst happens, I'll be fine. Best case scenario: if the SP doubles, I would sell half, get the original investment out and keep the rest for a few years.

But I have to say that it is fun to own some stock and watch it go up! The most funny thing to me is that ME - a complete newb with stocks - have now already made more money than so many TSLAQ Twitter clowns that are deep in the red

 

[avoigt]

How do you know?

It's sad we are happy about $250 when this thing should easily be over $350...

I believe the good news is not if we are today at $250 or $350 (actually it does not matter (to me)) but that a dynamic break of important resistances levels happened in just 2 days which is a strong indication about a shift in buyer/seller behavior and thats what at least I am looking for.

 

[Cherry Wine]

The volume after 250 is pretty decent, too.

 

[Curt Renz]

This is too funny! The intra-day chart is looking like a parabolic curve. The shorts want out but they can't get out without jacking the price up further. Other traders see this and want in on the action which just makes the shorts want to get out more (which makes the traders want IN even more)! LOL!

Indeed, the smart shorts appear to have started abandoning ship before the margin calls.

 

[humbaba]

@ihors3 has a chart showing $TSLA price/share overlaid with short interest. Scaling issues make seeing the relationship trickier (charting the two against one another versus an overlay would be better IMO) but the recent climb has been accompanied by a drop in short interest. This suggests an orderly exit by the shorts. My preference would be for the stock to climb despite increased shorting. I don't really care about retail shorts (exit now, please), but I'd like to see the noisy ones like toilet boy lose their shirts. (Yeah, I might be a little vindictive.)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_iAvxYWwAE2Rwy.jpg:large)

 

[Chop110]

Jump rats, jump!!

 

[pz1975]

Interesting how all the care bears and shorts have gone silent...it's almost like they only show up when the stock is going down to try and create more fear. (yes I know they always do this and this has been the pattern over the last 5 years on here!)

 

[StealthP3D]

I have a pretty good idea on getting out, so no worries there. I have bought what I have intended to buy, will not be buying more and if the worst happens, I'll be fine. Best case scenario: if the SP doubles, I would sell half, get the original investment out and keep the rest for a few years.

The biggest mistake newbies make (and also many experienced investors) when holding a good stock is to sell it too early. I've made most of my money by holding good stocks through some incredible run-ups (and not selling a single share). When I look at the math I cringe at how much I would have "lost" by selling a portion of the shares on the rise. Remember, you bought the stock (presumably) because the bigger picture, the longer term, was compelling, don't dilute your returns by selling right when everyone starts to want in. It's a rare individual who can time the peaks and valleys well enough to make it worthwhile. There is nothing worse than selling half of your shares and then watch the share price climb for the sky.

But I have to say that it is fun to own some stock and watch it go up! The most funny thing to me is that ME - a complete newb with stocks - have now already made more money than so many TSLAQ Twitter clowns that are deep in the red

You haven't made enough to shake a stick at yet!

 

[elasalle]

Ming Zhao on Twitter
Local news says $tsla China GF3 will start training new workers on July 29 to prepare for test production in as early as September. Formal production may begin in December, aiming for weekly 3000 Model 3s next year.

 

[heltok]

254 breached!

 

[ZeApelido]

Not going to link to it, but I guess Bob Lutz has turned back into Bob Putz.

 

[sparcs]

looks like we spooked some shorts

 

[dc_h]

I remember someone posted a table for distribution of Tesla ER dates and the ER performance (beat and miss), and it shows the early ER dates are related to good numbers... I couldn't find it now... Does someone have it? Thanks!

I have some documentation somewhere about the relationship of causation and correlation. I think it was bullish, but sometimes the data is completely independent.

*Hopefully lighthearted note to not get your hopes up too high. We've heard that Elon having happy tweets is bullish, early earnings, etc, but that idea has backfired in the past. I think the Q will be good, but probably not good enough to put a stake in the heart of TSLAQ.

 

[Navin]

Not going to link to it, but I guess Bob Lutz has turned back into Bob Putz.

Recent contract negotiations for a renewal finally finished. Retainer secured. Wonder if this type of paid bashing pays more than a board seat.

 

[heltok]

Ming Zhao on Twitter
Local news says $tsla China GF3 will start training new workers on July 29 to prepare for test production in as early as September. Formal production may begin in December, aiming for weekly 3000 Model 3s next year.

Just want to quote a prediction I did last year, I assume not many people thought we would be here today where it is almost coming true:

Gonna do a prediction here so I can get some mad forum creds when it comes true.

August 2019, China GF3 start assembly in tent. Lathrop storage filled with excess production of parts during the spring, parts are shipped to China for those part where local production is not yet ready. While assembly happens in China, local production of parts is rapidly added. As less and less parts are needed to be shipped to China, Freemont plant starts to prepare for Model Y production which will happen in Freemont with different general assembly but with many shared parts. Production of Model Y targeted for 2020Q1 but will start 2020Q2.

 

[CyberDutchie]

What triggered this run-up? The Neuralink news?

 

[Curt Renz]

From my Thinkorswim newsfeed 15 minutes ago:

"Moody's Upgrades Tesla Auto Lease Trust 2018-A Notes"

I wouldn't be surprised if we soon learn about upgrades from stock analysts.

 

[JusRelax]

Wow... anybody seen this autopilot video from Morocco?

Khalil Amar on Twitter

 

[Electroman]

A question for all the experts here... Over the last month I've started buying TSLA shares but before that I've never had any stock, never even had a trading account, so there's some basics that I'm curious about.

People here make statements like "If it breaks-through X, then it's an easy path to Y" or "if it falls-through Z, then Q is the next resistance". How do you know these numbers?

Just do what all the smartish analysts, like Adam Jonas do: Just make it up. You can't be worse than anyone else speculating in the market.