OK. Catvatars it is (at least for a while).
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Maybe his recent praise of Tesla was a ploy to get more money from whomever is paying him.
I wish all the best to anyone who takes investment advice from this befuddled gentleman.
In his rant, first he insults Tesla vehicles,
but then says the big global auto companies will make electric vehicles as good or even better than Tesla’s.
So which is it Mr. Lutz? Nobody wants Teslas? Or Tesla sets the bar for all the other auto makers?
Meanwhile we're still waiting for the big global auto makers to get on board with seriously making EVs
“The fate of Tesla is sealed. The situation is almost hopeless given the losses they are currently writing. Demand has given away. Tesla had 400,000 pre-orders for the Model 3. In fact, they only sold 80,000 or 90,000 of them, and they have trouble selling more. The Model S is now ten years old, and sales are sluggish. It’s the same picture for the Model X, the SUV with the wing doors – that’s an ugly vehicle anyway. Tesla will have about a year until each of the big global auto companies has its own fleet of electric vehicles on offer. These cars will be as good or even better than Tesla’s.”
If you can't say something bad about someone, don't say anything.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Saw TSLA in the green on my TV this morning highlighted with a few other early gainers. Said to myself, "Wow, someone at CNBC allowed a green TSLA on the screen!"
Realized I was watching Bloomberg.
Watch, FUD returns after Earning. Clockwork. They're just letting off pressure (prob buying on the side). 285 tops this round?
"Stay strong and short!"... no, doesn't rhyme.
Edit: apparently I forgot the "/s" tag, thanks @jerry33 /S!
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dc_h
Active Member
I think technical analysis is bullish, combined with good numbers and this quarter being more bullish then Wall Street expected. Tesla's production targets are looking more realistic and the possibility that they may turn a profit in Q2, means shorts have the possibility of big losses with limited upside of Tesla bankruptcy. Combine that with the possibility of Shanghai really happening, the short term and long term TSLAQ story should really be looking bad.
Hope we see the momentum continue through earnings. It was a long and sharp downturn, so hopefully the upside will be last longer and start to reflect the long term progress Tesla has made in the last 12 months.
Stars aligned
Member
Well, SP since low approx. 40%. Short interest since high approx. -10%. Not bad at all...@ihors3 has a chart showing $TSLA price/share overlaid with short interest. Scaling issues make seeing the relationship trickier (charting the two against one another versus an overlay would be better IMO) but the recent climb has been accompanied by a drop in short interest. This suggests an orderly exit by the shorts. My preference would be for the stock to climb despite increased shorting. I don't really care about retail shorts (exit now, please), but I'd like to see the noisy ones like toilet boy lose their shirts. (Yeah, I might be a little vindictive.)
(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/D_iAvxYWwAE2Rwy.jpg:large)
Had no choice, it was money I could play with for a month - it was purely a play on the delivery report to get a short-term positive trade.
But hey, I increased my core share-holding by 0.8% - I'll do this again next quarter end if it feels right.
dc_h
Active Member
If you assume that they are creating a buy opportunity, some of the advice makes more sense.
Plus Adam Jonas reiterating his $10 bear case
Go on Jonas, throw us a bone, how about 10% upgrade to $11??
I did my part buying 25 shares early this AM.
Jumping on the avatar bandwagon thanks to Simon Tofield.
Jumping on the avatar bandwagon thanks to Simon Tofield.
All this talk of spreading your risk with 30-40 different stock in a portfolio... Screw that, I'm all in $TSLA and boo hoo if I lose it all, my life stays as it is - comfortable enough, but if it goes where we expect, that's one hell of a retirement I have lined up in 15 years time.
Personal choies, I don't care about the risk, all bought with cash.
Personal choies, I don't care about the risk, all bought with cash.
RFernatt
Solar/EV Owner/Enthusiast
My take is long term. For something like TSLA, buy, hold, and add more when price is attractive and you have the funds unless something significant and structurally negative occurs. Ignore the fluctuating FUD quarterly crap. Not advice and YMMV.
Don't have a cat, but I do know a certain Vulcan...GO TSLA!
adiggs
Well-Known Member
And an excellent choice in cavatar!
Good article by Simon Alvarez over on Teslarati. He summarizes an interview with Paul Eichenberg. Some takeaways:
"Overall, it appears that traditional automakers’ decision to “wait and see” if Tesla survives and succeeds was a miscalculation at best."
"Elaborating further, Eichenberg mentioned that big-tier corporations such as Honeywell and Delphi, whose businesses are tied to the internal combustion engine, are now positioning themselves through spinoffs as a way to shed their ICE-centered assets."
"Overall, it appears that traditional automakers’ decision to “wait and see” if Tesla survives and succeeds was a miscalculation at best."
"Elaborating further, Eichenberg mentioned that big-tier corporations such as Honeywell and Delphi, whose businesses are tied to the internal combustion engine, are now positioning themselves through spinoffs as a way to shed their ICE-centered assets."
The lease trust ratings are mostly independent of the the company as they primarily relate to the performance of the leases in the trust (that said, OEM performance does have some impact as a stronger OEM should lead to better performance of the leases in terms of collections and vehicle resale value, and the ability to call the deal).
Looking at the upgrade memo, Moody's cite stronger residual value performance and lower losses than they originally modelled - something pretty easy to achieve as Moody's hit the Tesla transaction with very conservative assumptions in their initial assessment.
That said, Tesla now has a significantly stronger balance sheet after the capital raise and is seeing sustained M3 production so a Moody's upgrade of TSLA could be on the cards.
My guess is that Tesla is about to announce their next transaction and Moody's have been reviewing historical deal performance as part of the assessment of the new pool of leases. The timing would be about right as Tesla haven't issued a deal since late last year - their warehouse lines must be filling up enough by now to go back to market. The 2018-A transaction settled in Feb-18 so the upgrade is unlikely to be part of Moody's standard annual review of the deals they monitor.
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