Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[njzimmic]

Tesla’s Higher-End Sales Erode in Key Market Amid Model 3 Gains
Tesla’s Higher-End Sales Erode in Key Market Amid Model 3 Gains

This Tim guy always fails to report as a reporter the relevant stories :/

FAILED to mention china growth, Robo Taxis, Truck & Boring company

 

[njzimmic]

FAILED to mention china growth, Robo Taxis, Truck & Boring company

AND... Frames as if CALI is the only market for their growth hahaha this guy is laughable

 

[humbaba]

Short update
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I can't help but wonder if the shorting is more than he thinks. Last time he was wrong there was obvious, heavy shorting that was pushing the stock price down. Now the price is rising and its really just a question of how much shorting is being done to put the brakes on the increase.

So to compare the signals:

June: heavy shorting with falling stock price, but stock borrow fee was general collateral

July: possible short capping with rising stock price, stock borrow fee is slightly above general collateral

I've observed before that the interest rate is, at best, a weak signal. So discarding that leaves a much weaker signal that there is increased shorting. So my guess is that @ihors3 estimate of slightly elevated shorting is accurate. Which is a shame: I'd absolutely love to have heavy shorting with a rising stock price.

One final thought: Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter

Don't know where they are getting their numbers but they are saying there are only 40,000 shares of $TSLA available to borrow today ... but I'm seeing over 2.5 million shares actually borrowed already today. Seems they are off by 2.46 million and the trading day isn't over yet.

Today's volume was apparently 5M shares, but there were 2.5M borrows? Put another way, it is ~22% of the average volume. Granted, he later points out a borrow doesn't necessarily mean immediate shorting, or even eventual shorting. But that seems to be such a high fraction of the volume I don't think it should be discounted.

Maybe folks are borrowing in the anticipation of a fall in price? That makes sense to me -- they have three days to return the shares and are hedging bets for having shares to sell short following the ER tomorrow. If the stock continues to rise they'll just return the borrowed shares and short at a higher price, but if the stock dips before the ER they can short at a higher price.

Put another way, this smells very strongly of accumulating 2.5M shares to be dumped on the market following the ER.

borrowed in anticipation of a short sale, borrowed to get a better stock loan rate, borrowed as a financing trade, etc ,etc ,etc .. there are multiple reasons besides shorting to borrow a stock

you can hold them for three days in anticipation of shorting, then return the excess, borrow cheaper shares and eventually return expensive shares, use them as a financing trade (lend shares, get cash collateral at cheaper rates than corporate paper).

Kind of a shame no one asked him how common it is for non-shorting borrowing, or for borrowing in general to be such a large fraction of trade volume.

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Keep in mind the cabin camera. Abuse typically causes Tesla to make the rules even tighter. We saw this happen with the nag already where they shortened the time between each proof of driver consciousness. So this could mean the camera watches you drive and pulls over if you sleep. (Or they could turn on cold A/C and freeze your ass awake, paired with loud screeching noises exceeding 120 db.)

If you cheat, they rules change. Same as any sport really.

Tesla cars are sold all over the world. Some countries will accept it faster than others. Once the statistics start to come out with early adopters and lives are SAVED not lost it's a no brainer that autopilot acceptance will explode. Elon said one million robo taxis by the end of next year. They could all be in China in the beginning. The statistics will make the difference. FACTS DON'T LIE.

 

[Krugerrand]

So that suggests Ford's 1.25 million pounds towing on rails might be equivalent to 200,000 pounds real capacity. Which is 2/3 Musk's claimed 300,000 pounds.

The only possible conclusion is that Musk is a conman -- only the most gullible would believe he could outdo the King of Trucks by 50%.

I do think it shows that Ford is aware of how deep the doo doo they are in is. But I'm not sure the advert was the smart move. One, it validates EV trucks. Two, it validates Tesla as a competitor.

To be honest, I'm starting to think the "then they fight you" step will be entirely skipped by some of these legacy manufacturers. All of this short term protection of profits at the expense of long term survival by the company is exactly what I would expect from short term CEOs.

Ford: 2 years. GM: 5 years. FCA: 1 year. BMW: <1 year. VW: 1 year.

Tesla: 11 years.

I thought it was a stupid commercial. First you want me to believe that those dudes were ‘surprised’? Then the one guy brags that he can take his wife to dinner in his truck - like that’s what a woman dressed up for dinner wants to do; climb in and out of a pickup in heels and a dress. Perhaps the dinner he had in mind was Mickey Ds drive thru.

Then the whole contrived, *nail biter* ‘will it pull it?’ ‘Egads! Look surprised construction/hunter/lumberjack dudes, it’s working!!!’

To me that’s classic brainwashing advertising b.s. I didn’t fall for it and I know @neroden didn’t fall for it. In fact, I will go out of my way to continue to never buy a Ford, even if Tesla’s cyberpunk-bladerunner pickup can only pull a Radio Flyer full of old newspapers.

 

[AlexS]

Kind of a shame no one asked him how common it is for non-shorting borrowing, or for borrowing in general to be such a large fraction of trade volume.

I am sure these will be shorted tomorrow

 

[ZeApelido]

I just had initial interview with Daimler for machine learning position.

Don't hate me

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m pretty sure I saw Moses’ mother greasing the wheels too.

I think that was Anton Wahlman disguised in woman's clothing. "Come-on little baby EV F-150 prototype, I know you can do it....make mama proud..."

 

[Beltsbear]

No way was that guy actually watching the road.

He was not, but that was a very poor setup. There is one cockeyed sign before it and not enough lead up cones. Of course he probably cut off some signage (I hope) that may have proceeded it. I think that could cause some drivers a surprise as they scramble in just a few seconds to get over safely, but if you are paying attention to crash should occur.

 

[ZeApelido]

There seems to be quite a lot of back slapping going on here at the moment.

General themes are that the Y will arrive months ahead of schedule, maxcells are imminent and GF3 will be ahead of its aggressive schedule.

Some people here are setting themselves up for disappointment with these accelerated timeframes.

Remember the relatively simple raven upgrade is still getting up to speed, this change has to be substantially easier than the other items on the list.

Do you think Elon has met his forecasting spirit animal who told him to sandbag?

He did for Model Y. The spirit animal said "if you spill one word about real Model Y timeline, I will take away all your Model 3 sales and your big tunnel boring toy. And go stand in the corner until I say so"

 

[Krugerrand]

Another very positive review from a popular UK motoring website and YouTube channel.

I had to close my eyes and just listen; it’s very disconcerting to see everything backwards.

 

[aubreymcfato]

Not sure how much time Elon spent there, but the speed of some of the changes he initiates is surely impressive.

Yep. I wish he started some serious campaign for carbon sequestration, like for example streamlining some methodology for agroforestry like Miyawaki methodology applied by Afforestt.
Forest conservation and restoration (done at massive scale) could buy us precious time for the electric transition we need.¹ Much cheaper and effective than some technological solution, at the moment.

¹ I'm curating a list of English and Italian articles on this, feel free to participate and suggest good sources: Alberi come infrastruttura urbana.

 

[ZeApelido]

OT


FYI, "fazed" is the word you're looking for. "Phased" is a change in the state of matter, "fazed" is disturbed, from old English fesian. Your English language nerd here.

No she meant her internal robotic motors control loops would not have gotten out of phase


Edit: doh 2nd robot response

 

[uselesslogin]

I thought it was a stupid commercial. First you want me to believe that those dudes were ‘surprised’? Then the one guy brags that he can take his wife to dinner in his truck - like that’s what a woman dressed up for dinner wants to do; climb in and out of a pickup in heels and a dress. Perhaps the dinner he had in mind was Mickey Ds drive thru.

I'll have to assume women in California might have an aversion to pickups but I can promise you that women in Nebraska and Texas have absolutely no issue with this and they would certainly not be happy if the date is at a McDonald's. I get your points otherwise but they aren't marketing to Tesla owners and that is a good thing.

 

[M3Rider]

Yep. I wish he started some serious campaign for carbon sequestration, like for example streamlining some methodology for agroforestry like Miyawaki methodology applied by Afforestt.
Forest conservation and restoration (done at massive scale) could buy us precious time for the electric transition we need.¹ Much cheaper and effective than some technological solution, at the moment.

¹ I'm curating a list of English and Italian articles on this, feel free to participate and suggest good sources: Alberi come infrastruttura urbana.

I also wish they'd give him access to area 51.
We'd have those saucers they can't figure out flying to Mars and back in no time

 

[RFernatt]

I guess I just don't see how his [Spiegel] life can turn itself around and leave him better off than before he went on this anti-Tesla crusade. The ending will not be pretty for him. I would say I have not an ounce of compassion for such a cretin but he looked so tortured and sick, that would be a lie. It's sad.

Seems to be a lot of parallels...

"...but now that I see him, I do pity him." - Frodo

 

[Krugerrand]

I'll have to assume women in California might have an aversion to pickups but I can promise you that women in Nebraska and Texas have absolutely no issue with this and they would certainly not be happy if the date is at a McDonald's. I get your points otherwise but they aren't marketing to Tesla owners and that is a good thing.

Don’t make assumptions.

I’ve owned pickups my whole driving life (decades) and ‘hint’ I might not have called California home my entire life.

I also know women and even those in Texas and Nebraska do NOT appreciate climbing in and out of a pickup when dressed up. Yes, even women who own pickups and regularly drive/use them. They may do it and not complain outwardly about it, but I assure you most have had the eye rolling discussion with their besties.

Feel free to put on some stilettos, Spanx, hose and a tight/cocktail/evening dress with your cleavage on display and give it a go. It’s especially fun when there isn’t a running board and the truck is jacked up and covered in mud from the weekend.

Ford made the same mistake as you. They should be marketing to Tesla owners, as well as everyone else who might need The King of pickups, and people interested in an electric pickup and interested in the environment, and, and.... That right there is why that commercial/ad is so contrived. How brave of Ford to use a female engineer AND let her drive with a geek as her copilot, while ‘surprising’ a bunch of stereotypical pickup owners. But hey, maybe that’s the real message they want to convey; EVs are for women and nerds, but real men want diesel.

 

[Hock1]

Short update
View attachment 433318

Since Ihor denies the fact that market makers are allowed to naked short (under the Madoff Exemption), it is unlikely that his analysis is trustworthy. IMO.

 

[ggr]

Don’t make assumptions.

I’ve owned pickups my whole driving life (decades) and ‘hint’ I might not have called California home my entire life.

I also know women and even those in Texas and Nebraska do NOT appreciate climbing in and out of a pickup when dressed up. Yes, even women who own pickups and regularly drive/use them. They may do it and not complain outwardly about it, but I assure you most have had the eye rolling discussion with their besties.

Feel free to put on some stilettos, Spanx, hose and a tight/cocktail/evening dress with your cleavage on display and give it a go. It’s especially fun when there isn’t a running board and the truck is jacked up and covered in mud from the weekend.

Ford made the same mistake as you. They should be marketing to Tesla owners, as well as everyone else who might need The King of pickups, and people interested in an electric pickup and interested in the environment, and, and.... That right there is why that commercial/ad is so contrived. How brave of Ford to use a female engineer AND let her drive with a geek as her copilot, while ‘surprising’ a bunch of stereotypical pickup owners. But hey, maybe that’s the real message they want to convey; EVs are for women and nerds, but real men want diesel.

Interesting viewpoint, but I'd like to mention that my wife has the same reaction to getting out of the Roadster (except for the bit about jacked up and covered in mud...).

 

[PhaseWhite]

He definitely wasnt. But the fact that AP never pick ups road cones seems pretty egregious.

AP 2.x and 3 can definitely navigate around construction cones/barrels as I’ve let it do so on many occasions on recent firmware.

In this case there’s a good chance it would have moved over if the semi wasn’t in the right lane.