Many of my Tesla/EV driving friends don’t even know about the Electrek website. The number of site visitors relative to how many EVs are out there is still small.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Many of my Tesla/EV driving friends don’t even know about the Electrek website. The number of site visitors relative to how many EVs are out there is still small.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Actually, while this is a common understanding that is probably true to a fair degree, we don't know this for sure: neither BMW nor Mercedes is disclosing the (probably very healthy) margins of their highest end models - Tesla is actually very unique in their S/X margins transparency.
For all we know BMW 8 series might be a gold mine that generates a significant portion of BMW's gross profits.
Per model margins are a closely held trade secret at all the large luxury carmakers, except Tesla.
j6Lpi429@3j
Closed
I dont see the S/X as vaguely demand limited in the medium or short term. All those people who are drooling over the ipace or etron need to actually sit in one/take a test drive/read reviews, then S/X demand will shoot up.
Every jaguar on the road is a market opportunity for Tesla, just like every BMW, and there are tons of both where I live.
Also...here in the UK, I haven't even SEEN a model 3 yet. The idea that tesla face demand problems is hilarious. All I ever get is curiosity and interest and admiration for my 2015 model S. The idea of the average joe looking at my car and going 'nah, it looks out of date, will wait for a refresh' is comical. These are people who still have gearsticks and physical buttons all over the place.
I would like to see increases in production numbers for all models, I really don't care if they make a profit in a quarter in 2019 or 2020. I'm happy to play a very long game as an investor, and as the EV market skyrockets, I want tesla to maintain (or grow) market share.
Every jaguar on the road is a market opportunity for Tesla, just like every BMW, and there are tons of both where I live.
Also...here in the UK, I haven't even SEEN a model 3 yet. The idea that tesla face demand problems is hilarious. All I ever get is curiosity and interest and admiration for my 2015 model S. The idea of the average joe looking at my car and going 'nah, it looks out of date, will wait for a refresh' is comical. These are people who still have gearsticks and physical buttons all over the place.
I would like to see increases in production numbers for all models, I really don't care if they make a profit in a quarter in 2019 or 2020. I'm happy to play a very long game as an investor, and as the EV market skyrockets, I want tesla to maintain (or grow) market share.
The Indonesia plant is only a $4bn project and Tesla is reportedly only taking a minor stake.
Elon, JB and Drew have given so many transparent hints its basically equivalent to announcing future cells will mostly be made in-house.
No one is going to build 2TWh of battery cells for Tesla, and Tesla is not going to spend its battery tech show and tell day talking about other peoples old technology and their plans to buy $100bn of annual batteries from random suppliers. Tesla has clearly developed new cell design and manufacturing technology - 2TWh is just not possible with Panasonic/CATL/LG's manufacturing methods.
In normal business anything above 10% would be considered pretty exceptional...
Stars aligned
Member
I'm with you re success and guidance. It's just that SP / sentiment / expectations have decoupled a little bit from reality. Nice to see it decoupling and coming back, it opened an opportunity.
Also as was pointed out one needs to see this in relation to the results of other automakers. Tesla leads the pack.
Obvious to me that Fact Checking is not one person, but a team of at least 20!
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Perspective:
TSLA has had a rough year from an investment perspective.
However: The pace of innovation is what matters in the end.
Tesla is changing the landscape. They are leading what the future market will look like. That puts them in a great position for the future.
Other carnakers are struggling more than Tesla. And they have a big anchor tied around their neck: they are largely dependent on technology of the past, where Tesla is 100% in on the tech of the future.
The “get rich really quick” story of TSLA is only possible if FSD becomes a reality in the next few years.
But even if that doesn’t come to play, long term nobody is better positioned for the future than Tesla.
Case in point:
Nissan job cuts: 12,500 positions to go as profits collapse - CNN
TSLA is a long game. Ignore the noise and the FUD. TSLA’s real story is years down the road, when they will have a massive lead over competitors.
Tesla’s story is much like Amazon. Currently we’re at the same place where everyone complained that Amazon couldn’t make money.
Musk, like Bezos, is positioning Tesla to dominate in the future. It’s not a 2 quarter, 1 year, or two year game.
TSLA has had a rough year from an investment perspective.
However: The pace of innovation is what matters in the end.
Tesla is changing the landscape. They are leading what the future market will look like. That puts them in a great position for the future.
Other carnakers are struggling more than Tesla. And they have a big anchor tied around their neck: they are largely dependent on technology of the past, where Tesla is 100% in on the tech of the future.
The “get rich really quick” story of TSLA is only possible if FSD becomes a reality in the next few years.
But even if that doesn’t come to play, long term nobody is better positioned for the future than Tesla.
Case in point:
Nissan job cuts: 12,500 positions to go as profits collapse - CNN
TSLA is a long game. Ignore the noise and the FUD. TSLA’s real story is years down the road, when they will have a massive lead over competitors.
Tesla’s story is much like Amazon. Currently we’re at the same place where everyone complained that Amazon couldn’t make money.
Musk, like Bezos, is positioning Tesla to dominate in the future. It’s not a 2 quarter, 1 year, or two year game.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
I suspect it's demography dependent, but a significant percentage of current and future Tesla owners get their Tesla news from one of the clean tech and Tesla specialized news sources: Electrek, CleanTechnica, Teslarati and InsideEVs, from Reddit, TMC, Elon's Twitter or directly from Tesla.
Just to back up that this isn't just a random list:
Of those Tesla specialized news sources, Electrek is the most popular one, by far in that metric:
electrek.co Traffic Statistics
13.8M visits
teslarati.com Traffic Statistics
5.33M visits
insideevs.com Traffic Statistics
4.44M visits
cleantechnica.com Traffic Statistics
4.34M visits
teslamotorsclub.com Traffic Statistics
2.28M visits
Electrek has about as many page views as the other three sites combined. I've also seen Electrek news syndicated to various stock news feeds - never saw the other sites show up there. So Electrek possibly has a larger influence on investors.13.8M visits
teslarati.com Traffic Statistics
5.33M visits
insideevs.com Traffic Statistics
4.44M visits
cleantechnica.com Traffic Statistics
4.34M visits
teslamotorsclub.com Traffic Statistics
2.28M visits
(Note that TMC is a bit of an apples to oranges comparison in that list: TMC's engagement factor of individual visitors is probably much higher than that of Electrek, evidenced by the 'average visit duration' that is an order of higher on TMC.
)Or to look at a different, independent comparison, here's the Google Trends comparison of these four sites and the Tesla subreddit:
(Note that I trimmed this week's projected data point from Google Trends - it's an annoying and noisy extrapolation.)
Electrek is leading there too most of the time.
We should rate these two sources of data higher than your anecdotal sample of Electrek's influence among your friends.
That's certainly possible - I asked it as an open question.
But my observation that Electrek is the biggest Tesla specific news site/blog is a simple fact, and I suspect that's the main reason why Elon has engaged Fred directly a couple of times over Twitter as well.
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Also, the batteries will only have to be drawn over the night and in hours of low wind/sun. Most of the day solar/wind can go directly to the grid and to charging the battery. Maybe only one third of global daily electricity use will have to be drawn from batteries for a fully renewable grid. So maybe we only need c.25TWh of batteries to move to a fully renewable electricity grid. However we need to transfer all global useful energy (electricity, transport, industry etc) to electricity - this is around 60,000TWh - so maybe needing more like 60TWh of battery storage needed to move to 100% clean energy. And if the world was to use energy at the US rate, maybe another 3-4x.
This doesn't fully solve winter in some darker regions - but heat pump home heating and possibly gas or hydrogen electricity plants fired up for a few weeks in winter at the solar lows should be enough to solve seasonal renewable generation variation (fortunately wind and solar peak in different seasons).
ZachF
Active Member
When human battery production in measured in terawatts, we can easily go all-in on solar+storage.
Fossil fuel age will end.
sweter
Member
Funny story, but I had the same feeling all the time since I bought first shares in late 2016...
I just wish at some point we actually move up one step towards past looks OK, present is looking rosy and future is looking amazing.This question has never been asked on any CC, but I wonder what hurdles are they facing or what are their expectations/requirements for Giga EU. I think it's the 3rd time I hear Musk saying "we're gonna finalize the location by the end of the year". I half suspect that originally they wanted EU first then China but things changed so they swapped.
Wait, are you saying that a journalist holding TSLA should not be critical of the company? Are you saying that if a journalist has news they should sit on it because it might hurt the company? Are you saying that a journalist should be hush hush about dynamic price changes and keep their readers uninformed what's going on so they make mistake and buy their car for more than they could a week later, all in the name of pumping TSLA?
You all here laughed at and "debunked" Fred's story about JB and yet here we are.
No, 1st part of your sentence might be fact, but the 2nd part is an opinion
I actually started to think recently that the SP is exactly where it should be. The ATH's we've seen in the past should have been considered bubbles as they were based on nothing more than estimates and expectations and Musk's promises of timelines. We all know some of them didn't come to pass and some of them came later (and that's totally fine). But it'd be ridiculous to expect the SP to stay high or even go higher regardless.
Bulls do create their own bubble, bears do live in their own echochamber and the reality is somewhere in between. Currently, somewhere in $220-$250 range
Just because the shares *might* be at $4,000 level in 10 years, doesn't mean they should be there already.So is Tesla an automaker and should be valued as one or is it a tech / energy company? We gotta decide, can't have it both ways.
ZachF
Active Member
You could use biogas with the allam cycle in colder climates... It would actually be carbon negative.
But anyways, if Tesla has 1Twh of battery capacity, has 10% market share, and the batteries last ~10 years, that's enough to maintain ~100 Twh of storage.
ZachF
Active Member
Not that many.
Half or more of that will probably be used for stationary capacity/grid storage.
Semis will need 800Kwh+ packs each.
Trucks will probably need 150Kwh+ packs.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Such as warning about -$300m or deeper GAAP losses in Q2, before the earnings report?
See:
And to answer your question:
There's a few, over the past year I pointed out several major ones - and I expect all new mistakes by Tesla and Elon as well. (There's only one major mistake right now that I'm aware of, that of dismal service communications. Whether this is geographically isolated or systemic is unknown - but there's been several credible reports here that it's very much a thing, and the buck obviously stops with Elon.)
Anyway, in the general scheme of things all the hand-wringing about margins, ASPs and demand is only meaningful in terms of trying to predict quarterly Wall Street response - but they are mostly meaningless in the long run.
I've also seen enough successful startups to know how messy they are in their early and not so early phases: any company that is growing at 50% rates is going to have incredible amounts of internal inefficiencies, compared to zero growth incumbents that have been around for a hundred years ...
To me the guiding principle in evaluating Tesla is the Theodore Roosevelt quote @SPadival cited on Twitter recently:
S Padival on Twitter
Quote by Theodore Roosevelt: “It is not the critic who counts; not the man wh...”
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
Quote by Theodore Roosevelt: “It is not the critic who counts; not the man wh...”
“It is not the critic who counts; not the man who points out how the strong man stumbles, or where the doer of deeds could have done them better. The credit belongs to the man who is actually in the arena, whose face is marred by dust and sweat and blood; who strives valiantly; who errs, who comes short again and again, because there is no effort without error and shortcoming; but who does actually strive to do the deeds; who knows great enthusiasms, the great devotions; who spends himself in a worthy cause; who at the best knows in the end the triumph of high achievement, and who at the worst, if he fails, at least fails while daring greatly, so that his place shall never be with those cold and timid souls who neither know victory nor defeat.”
What Tesla has achieved so far is incredible and IMO Tesla's growth prospects are excellent even if all prospective competitors materialize to the fullest of their abilities (be it VW, BMW, Daimler, Volvo, Rivian or Apple) - and I believe in a few years the current TSLA price levels of ~$230 will be looked back at as a curious market failure.
But I could be wrong, and this is not advice, as usual.
It's not meaningless. They are profitable. And when the mission is getting everybody to drive EV different cars are needed.
I for one would not be happy about the TM3 or TMY. Too small for my needs. If I lost my TMX today and could not buy a new TMX or TMS I would have to choose between the e-Tron and fossil cars. Not sure where I would land.
So the manipulative bankers set up Tesla for the big miss. Missing so big says more about the analyst than the company. Except for the ~120 mln in restructuring cost, everything else should've been expected for someone who's full time job is to follow the company and make projections.
Common, how can you increase all fundamentals in your 'research' while lowering your price target?
Consensus expected an Increase in gross margin? After multiple price cuts and older model S/X inventory sale at a discount, was it really that hard to forecast a decline in gross margin instead of an increase?
Common, how can you increase all fundamentals in your 'research' while lowering your price target?
Consensus expected an Increase in gross margin? After multiple price cuts and older model S/X inventory sale at a discount, was it really that hard to forecast a decline in gross margin instead of an increase?
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Looks like Nissan will be the first ICE OEM to fall in the new order.
Nissan job cuts: 12,500 positions to go as profits collapse - CNN
For anyone upset about the Earnings Report from Tesla, do your own research and read it end to end, before making your own opinion. Overall Earnings Report shows excellent progress for a company in high growth mode. Tesla is setting up their business to become highly profitable. Don't let Mr. Media fool you by cherry picking items that have yet to come to fruition pushing a doom and gloom narrative. It is just noise. Keep up the great work Tesla.
Nissan job cuts: 12,500 positions to go as profits collapse - CNN
For anyone upset about the Earnings Report from Tesla, do your own research and read it end to end, before making your own opinion. Overall Earnings Report shows excellent progress for a company in high growth mode. Tesla is setting up their business to become highly profitable. Don't let Mr. Media fool you by cherry picking items that have yet to come to fruition pushing a doom and gloom narrative. It is just noise. Keep up the great work Tesla.
STARR X
Member
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