Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RoadsterPlease]

she's alive. green EOD. 300 by october

 

[Open Interest]

Probably brakes and rotors, brake fluid change, coolant flush, maybe new 12v.

I’m at the five year mark on my RAV4, just needed new rear brakes. Other than that, very minimal maintenance and repair costs.

 

[mrmage]

I still stand by my Amazon comments: haven't been swayed by the thoughts presented here.

There wasn't anything technologically complex about what Amazon has achieved in the online retailer business. It has been relatively easy to understand but yes, costly and time consuming to achieve.

Tesla's technological achievements have been 5-10x more complex than Amazon's, IMO.

Scaling is always difficult. If it wasn't, Facebook, Netflix and Apple wouldn't be running on Amazon's services, which were created to support Amazon's stores. If it only required time and money, Google and Microsoft would be the leaders in the space.

Scaling is Tesla's biggest challenge too. Elon Musk has never spent more intensity than working on the production line hell, because it's hard to scale. He spent a lot of time on the S and X, but scaling production for M3 was the hardest thing he ever worked on.

 

[VValleyEV]

Request for financial analysis (@neroden ? @ReflexFunds ? @Fact Checking @KarenRei ?):

Business Insider highlights of Tesla Bull Gordon Johnson is the usual tripe, but includes one quantifiable complaint, that Tesla is not spending enough on capex. (I won’t include a link, easy to find by title “Tesla’s biggest bear on Wall Street ... blabla”):

“"Tesla's cap-ex in the quarter was a joke," he said of the $249.7 million reported line item. "For the past three quarters running, Tesla's cap-ex has been under its depreciation and amortization, meaning it's not investing enough to upkeep its equipment. That's not what growth companies do."

Wild guess: Is this perhaps because big capex expenditures were 4+ quarters ago, in cash, and the biggest one since is Shanghai which is financed by Chinese loans so doesn’t show up here? Maybe measuring capex on quarterly basis is not terribly meaningful? Or, is it possible that he has a point?

 

[AndyH]

I keep thinking the following:

1. The more Wall St and the media has this misguided impression that Tesla is failing,
2. The more established automakers believe Tesla is not worth chasing because they'll die,
3. The more they refuse to budge from their existing ICE model,
4. The further ahead Tesla gets from the competition.
5. The higher TSLA goes longer term.

Bad for the future of our world, but ultimately good for my pocketbook. I will then spend those TSLA profits on more Teslas, which is then good for the world. Therefore, it's a win-win. Unless you're an established automaker, in which case you're doomed.

Tesla would be better off without the FUD. But the FUD does let Tesla grab market share without other carmakers reacting. In the long run all this FUD is just doing harm to us humans, the auto industry and the shorters. Not to mention the media that is actively killing itself by becoming too untrustworthy to ever be taken seriously again.

Ps. Green!

 

[printf42]

Looked through $TSLAQ tweets, they’re still mad and not really doing victory laps.
Most of their talking points don’t work anymore, so they are mostly just cursing these days.

I picked up some cheap short term OTM calls betting on surprises in 13F reports.
Btw, I don’t gamble when I’m in Vegas, yet here I am.

 

[EVMeister]

Oh. Has the market realised this drop was nonsense?

 

[EVNow]

Oh. Has the market realised this drop was nonsense?

Feels like an effort to push SP above $230 by MM to avoid paying for 230 puts ? But a little early - they have to maintain this for next 90 minutes.

 

[Mobius484]

I see a spike for 7.3 mil shares just bought. Wtf?

 

[anthonyj]

Been writing puts on every morning dip for the past few weeks and covering during large spikes later in the day, without fail. Minimum 30% return. It's going to buy me another Tesla I'm sure.

 

[Unpilot]

I see a spike for 7.3 mil shares just bought. Wtf?

That was me...but I was a little short on cash so it did not go through.

 

[Tslynk67]

I've seen some odd buy/sell spikes on Yahoo's chart before, but this one is the best to date

 

[KSilver2000]

Request for financial analysis (@neroden ? @ReflexFunds ? @Fact Checking @KarenRei ?):

Business Insider highlights of Tesla Bull Gordon Johnson is the usual tripe, but includes one quantifiable complaint, that Tesla is not spending enough on capex. (I won’t include a link, easy to find by title “Tesla’s biggest bear on Wall Street ... blabla”):

“"Tesla's cap-ex in the quarter was a joke," he said of the $249.7 million reported line item. "For the past three quarters running, Tesla's cap-ex has been under its depreciation and amortization, meaning it's not investing enough to upkeep its equipment. That's not what growth companies do."

Wild guess: Is this perhaps because big capex expenditures were 4+ quarters ago, in cash, and the biggest one since is Shanghai which is financed by Chinese loans so doesn’t show up here? Maybe measuring capex on quarterly basis is not terribly meaningful? Or, is it possible that he has a point?

You are correct in that the depreciation won’t start showing up for a Capex purchase on the IS until the following year from that purchase date. So, yes, besides China, the big capex were probably done longer than a year ago, which makes sense from what we know. That would lend credence to the statement that their prior 4 Q’s haven’t had many major asset purchases. Not every quarter needs to show greater capex to be a solid growth company, but it’s still good to see capex spending growing over time. I guess it depends on how you interpret how much $250M to be.
One other thing, Capex is straightforward, whereas depreciation is not.

But, lower Capex = higher FCF

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Green!

 

[anthonyj]

I've seen some odd buy/sell spikes on Yahoo's chart before, but this one is the best to date

View attachment 434464

Saudis: Mr. JP Morgan, do you now have the 7.3m shares that we needed?

JPM: Yes, go ahead and place the limit buy on your Robinhood app

Saudis: Excellent, thank you for secretly buying the dip on our behalf. Your camel and gold bars will be shipped via DHL

 

[Tslynk67]

World domination will be very good for Tesla shareholders

If it's in our lifetimes, yes!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I wasn't able to follow the earnings that closely on Wed or the conf call but did Tesla give any guidance for production/deliveries for Q3?

 

[printf42]

Service communication problem heard and being addressed, bravo TMC.
I suspect Elon saw it here and decided to fix it, then search for a random tweet to reply, not the other way around.

e^ on Twitter

Hey @elonmusk please please make the service department @tesla change their hold music. I’ll personally curate a new playlist if need be. This has been the most excruciating 40 minutes of hold music I’ve ever heard. Painful.

Good point. Getting fixed …

Headline next month:
Tesla replace in-car-music-streaming button with a button to speed dial Tesla service hotline.

 

[LJS22]

I wasn't able to follow the earnings that closely on Wed or the conf call but did Tesla give any guidance for production/deliveries for Q3?

They are hedging higher than Q2 at this point.

Good news is Q2 stuff out of the way we have 3 months of Tesla leaking emails about how well things are going and ramping up production

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Looks like everyone now realizes that the drop was based on nothing. We have a whole weekend for people to re-read the numbers and re-listen to the call and then realize they should have bought, not sold. Hoping for some solid green starting monday.