Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mrmage]

Thanks! Very helpful. Not sure if I'll get it, but I'm going to throw it on my watchlist.

@mrmage, where do you buy the convertible bonds? Is there an income/net worth requirement to do so (I'm not a billionaire, but I play one on TV)? Thanks!

Update regarding purchasing the convertibles through Ameritrade's fixed income desk, instead of etrade's online bonds. Ameritrade originally quoted 96.2 to 96.86 depending on quantity. I looked up prices and came back requesting 95.2. They said 95.6 was the lowest they could go. Saving .6% to 1.2% was well worth the minute it took to look up prices.

The online price at etrade was only 95.5, so Ameritrade was more expensive even after negotiations. It wasn't worth waiting a few days to transfer funds, but etrade's online bond trading seems cheaper.

Notes:
1. Someone else bought qty 3 for 95.143 a couple hours earlier when the stock price was similar. There must be a cheaper platform somewhere.
2. The trader said the bond already accrued .6% from the 2% semi-annual coupon payments. This amount would be added to the transaction.
3. There are discounts for quantity. Qty 1 ($1000), break at qty 7, then breaks for more although I'm not sure exactly where.
4. I obtain the real time bond transaction history through etrade's platform.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Given that Musk has said they’re ramping solar roof this year, I’d argue the marketability of the roof has a large, direct impact on investments in Tesla.

sure, but discussions about lightbulbs and privacy screens, and basic physics...?

 

[FreqFlyer]

Just a couple observations, since everyone seems to be wowing at the pictures, but not really looking at them:

1) At Fremont, all GAs as far as I know, the vehicles move on conveyors. Here, however, they seem to be on sleds, with wheels embedded in the ground to move them (assuming I'm interpreting the pictures correctly). If I'm understanding the situation right, then I wouldn't be surprised if there were also wheels on the sleds themselves so it'd be easy to pull a vehicle out of the line and reinsert it back in after fixing something.

2) While the vehicles next to the camera are moving left, this appears to be part of a line that snakes back and forth, with the next layer of the line going to the right. You can see the next line, with lots of robots, barricaded off in the background. Note the direction that the Model 3 side panels are facing (to the right), and how there's a hole in that (clearly temporary) wood that they could fit through. If this is intended as a permanent arrangement, then I'd expect that carts with parts from stamping would show up between the bends in the line to deliver them to their respective workstations. Of course, one could always pack more into the given space by going vertical.

Anyone else notice anything worthy of comment?

Good points, as I stated before, if the Model Y is getting the new single stamped piece, should not the Model 3 get the same piece. Especially since Tesla is setting up fresh in China and the 3 and Y share the same platform.

 

[KarenRei]

Good points, as I stated before, if the Model Y is getting the new single stamped piece, should not the Model 3 get the same piece. Especially since Tesla is setting up fresh in China and the 3 and Y share the same platform.

There's no evidence that the "single (cast) piece" body process is anywhere near ready to go into production. I mean, it could be ready tomorrow, or not for five years. All we have to go on is a patent. Everything else is speculation.

 

[Rb48888]

Not to oversimplify what I'm sure is a complicated engineering solution, but we often use grid filters to wrangle light in photography/videography:

Image Source:

Agree that there would be some loss of efficiency when the Sun is not directly facing the grid, but that can be minimized by manipulating the depth of the grid itself. Very deep grids only allow light to pass through from angles closest to perpendicular from the grid surface. Shallow grids provide less off-axis shielding effect, but allow light from wider angles to pass.

As mentioned, it shouldn't be difficult to find a sweet spot for filter depth that allows light to pass from angles above the treeline, while also shielding the view of electronics from below.

IMHO, there are quite a few people who would upsize their system, to overcome a manageable drop in efficiency, for aesthetic reasons - especially if most of their free space electricity lands on their home's front fascade.

 

[LJS22]

I guess TSLAQ reaction is that Tesla doesn't yet have manufacturing license for China.

Is there any update on this? I wouldn't be surprised if the Chinese government holds this back in hope for some better deal. But there were already some news about the tax payment, so maybe the license is granted already.

Elon is being well taken care of in China.

7:30 in this video they talk about the grants received by Tesla being one of the last from the Chinese government for their building.

 

[EVNow]

I think seasonality is and has been only a quite minor issue for Tesla, including Q1 ‘19.

Seasonality was definitely a big part of the problem in Q1 '19 - but not the only problem. That's why I don't expect similar ER for Q1 '20. But I'd expect lower deliveries in Q1 '20 compared to Q4 '19.

 

[Beltsbear]

Good points, as I stated before, if the Model Y is getting the new single stamped piece, should not the Model 3 get the same piece. Especially since Tesla is setting up fresh in China and the 3 and Y share the same platform.

The Chinese Model 3 will almost certainly have body improvements. Even without the new single piece stamping, there are a bunch of improvements that can be made. It won't be radically different, but it will be easier to make.

 

[sparcs]

The Chinese Model 3 will almost certainly have body improvements. Even without the new single piece stamping, there are a bunch of improvements that can be made. It won't be radically different, but it will be easier to make.

I posted this previously from the Q2 shareholder letter:

Gigafactory Shanghai continues to take shape, and in Q2 we started to move machinery into the facility for the first phase of production there. This will be a simplified, more cost-effective version of our Model 3 line with capacity of 150,000 units per year – the second generation of the Model 3 production process.

It's safe to say there will be a substantial improvement when they characterize it as second generation, but it's unknown what those improvements are. I would take a guess that Model Y might end up even slightly more advanced manufacturing process as they take lessons from Shanghai.

 

[Zaxxon]

A more uplifting piece of news ...

Colorado joins California in requiring automakers to sell more electric cars

Colorado has become the 11th state to adopt California’s zero-emission-vehicle mandate forcing automakers to sell more electric cars in the state.

The new rule was passed by Colorado’s air-quality commission by a vote of 8 to 1 on Aug. 23. It requires at least 5% of an automaker’s new car lineup to be electric vehicles, or EVs, by 2023 and more than 6% by 2025.

“It’s a modest proposal in the face of a critical threat. Where the federal government refuses to act, states must lead,” Garry Kaufman, director of Colorado’s Air Pollution Control Division, said in a statement.​

This actually passed on the 16th and was discussed here at that time. Agreed that it's a modest proposal (read: if all states and countries immediately adopted this mandate, with a 2020 imposition date, we'd still be royally screwed). But it's still good to see it pass.

Do you know if tesla is allow to sell freely in Colorado or held back by dealerships ......

We're in a weird middle ground. Tesla has a one-store limit that they were grandfathered into (Rivian can't open any stores--there was an attempt to remove both these restrictions this year but it failed. Bonus points to John Medved for misleading the public in that article just as he tried to do during this month's ZEV hearings). We have several additional showrooms and two (soon to be three) service centers, but just the one 'true' sales location.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Light reflection —> solar tile thread
Trump’s lies and truths —> political thread
The KKK —> dustbin

 

[StealthP3D]

sure, but discussions about lightbulbs and privacy screens, and basic physics...?

If you don't like the subject matter, skip over it, it's a matter for the moderators. Making a new post about whether a post is on-topic is worse than a post that is only tangentially related. If you don't like the subject, just skip it.

 

[StealthP3D]

"Gigafactory Shanghai continues to take shape, and in Q2 we started to move machinery into the facility for the first phase of production there. This will be a simplified, more cost-effective version of our Model 3 line with capacity of 150,000 units per year – the second generation of the Model 3 production process."

It's safe to say there will be a substantial improvement when they characterize it as second generation, but it's unknown what those improvements are. I would take a guess that Model Y might end up even slightly more advanced manufacturing process as they take lessons from Shanghai.

There will be differences in the actual car, probably very minor differences, but the above quote does not address that - it's talking specifically about changes to the method of production and does not contemplate changes to the product itself.

 

[Leo9]

TSLA underperformance continues... Weak price action, very narrow range today, inside day.
It should be a nice day trade tomorrow.

 

[madodel]

From a muddy field to a halfway assembled Model 3. How time flies!



Nah - the pictures are clearly from the US!

The video was obviously shot on the same sound stage as the Lunar landing. It's all fake, Fake News, fake video, fake machinery, fake, fake, fake, fake. Back to the toilet cam of reality now.

 

[EVNow]

TSLA underperformance continues... Weak price action, very narrow range today, inside day.
It should be a nice day trade tomorrow.

Something to do with the Vanity Fair hit piece ? Until 11:40 TSLA was ahead of Nasdaq.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

sure, but discussions about lightbulbs and privacy screens, and basic physics...?

Privacy screen is being used as an analogous surface type to illustrate how it works in terms of gathering enough solar energy without appearing completely black from the sidewalk. Understanding how the product works is absolutely on topic(even if it’s already well known to some of us).

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

TSLA underperformance continues... Weak price action, very narrow range today, inside day.
It should be a nice day trade tomorrow.

We’re probably going to finish in the red with a hard push by shorts in the last 15 mins of trading....

 

[deffu]

Price action very weak today. it moves down quickly with the market. not so much when the market is trending up.

 

[Christine69420]

European sales 2019-H1 Premium Midsized segment

Sales of midsized luxury cars in Europe continue their downward trend in the first half of 2019, with deliveries down 1% to just under 335.000 units. In March and June, Tesla delivered more Model 3’s than any midsized namplate except for the Mercedes-Benz C-Class.
​

The Germans’ share of the segment has dropped from 81,7% to just 71,4%, mainly due to the arrival of the Model 3.​

European sales 2019-H1 Premium Midsized segment - carsalesbase.com

You should check out the table in that article - some cars are down a LOT.