Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[deffu]

Might be. But look at AAPL. GOOG. Today they all traded at half the usual volume.
it might well be the overall market is very cautious right now. Money is flowing out from stocks to bonds.

Today was the lowest-volume day for TSLA in 9 months (11/29/2018).

With volume drying up and short interest near record levels, this seems to me a pretty bullish setup given the proper catalyst.

 

[skivi]

Anyone have a lead on timing for the Ma/Musk talk in Shanghai?

09:30 Shanghai time
Opening Ceremony
So in 4.5 hours.

 

[humbaba]

With the number of quotes being mentioned here that have Tesla's insurance offering being significantly more expensive I think it is important to note that Tesla is not trying to, nor does it need to, give a better offer than everyone else.

I have no idea what targets Tesla has for adoption, but given the non-representative sampling here it looks like they could capture 10% of the Tesla vehicle insurance market. And, if they are able to prevail easily in claims cases due to the data collection capabilities of their cars, it could end up driving costs down so that they can gain access to more of the market.

But I don't see them ever gaining anywhere near 100% of even the Tesla vehicle insurance market. I'd be extremely surprised if they were competitive against my insurance (I'm not in California so I can't get a quote yet) -- which would have to take into account that my home insurance would go up if I didn't have my car also insured with them. These bundling deals will be hard to penetrate and I'm not sure that there is any need for them to do so.

As to marketing claims about being less expensive? Those are par for the course and I expect will always be true for some and false for many.

[edited to improve wording in first paragraph]

 

[LJS22]

Another positive example:

"My quote on Tesla (Model 3) was actually a little less than I'm paying with State Farm for similar coverage. If I drop the deductables to min and max the coverage limits, it would be better plan for similar $.

$103/mth vs $120/mth (similar coverage)"​

Looks like Tesla is selecting low risk profile drivers, with a possible bonus for Autopilot and FSD owners - which is the correct approach IMO.

Yea I was hoping they’d come in shockingly lower across the board to get people talking but no reason to let a new insurance program hurt the company. They are doing it right.

 

[capster]

10:30 Shanghai time
Opening Ceremony
So in 4.5 hours.

Wonder if and what Tesla will be demonstrating with their cars there.

 

[humbaba]

just now installing an update. As I already had 2019.28.3.1 I'm really curious to see what this one brings. Another point update? Or have they started with the enhanced summon?

The minutes drag when you're waiting for the install to complete so you can read the release notes. I wish they'd give them with the update notice

 

[Cherry Wine]

Yea I was hoping they’d come in shockingly lower across the board to get people talking but no reason to let a new insurance program hurt the company. They are doing it right.

It's hard to compete with multi-policy / multi-car / loyalty discounts. I'd like to see apples-to-apples comparisons sans the aforementioned reductions.

 

[SteveG3]

Yea I was hoping they’d come in shockingly lower across the board to get people talking but no reason to let a new insurance program hurt the company. They are doing it right.

I can see goals Tesla has with this insurance program consistent with the early feedback on quotes people have gotten,

- over the years, some people have gotten silly high quotes from their insurers when they've bought a Tesla. Even if Tesla's rates are middling, it offers a quick response to the group of people falling into this category.

- as AP/FSD data shows further large incremental steps in decreasing the probability of an accident, the reality of Tesla offering an insurance program largely proactively closes a lag in the insurance industry adjusting their pricing to reflect this and save Tesla owners money. Tesla having nil market share would likely be just fine by them if it's a reflection of the rest of the industry as a whole being fairly swift in pricing for AP/FSD fairly.

Tesla may or may not go in substantially as an insurer, but, it's not hard to see sizable value in getting some basic competency in this and rolling out this limited program.

 

[Curt Renz]

Tesla is ARK Invest's largest holding and is among those discussed by ARK CEO Cathie Wood on CNBC just after today's market close.

 

[humbaba]

just now installing an update. As I already had 2019.28.3.1 I'm really curious to see what this one brings. Another point update? Or have they started with the enhanced summon?

The minutes drag when you're waiting for the install to complete so you can read the release notes. I wish they'd give them with the update notice

Okay, I went from 2019.28.3.1 to 2019.32 -- and it is just a point update. The release notes mention the update notification is being added to the top bar and that Norwegian has been added as a language. I can't imagine why they added Norwegian of all the languages out there.

 

[Remus]

Tesla insurance would cost me 200 more for half year if I remove the 3 from my current two car policy.

 

[KSilver2000]

And what was all this talk by people on the forums here about how Tesla insurance was going to be a lot cheaper because these cars have safer autopilot/FSD?

It ain't easy competing in the insurance market.
Just like competing in the solar PV business.

 

[generalenthu]

09:30 Shanghai time
Opening Ceremony
So in 4.5 hours.

Anyone tracking Elon's fight?

 

[dww12]

And what was all this talk by people on the forums here about how Tesla insurance was going to be a lot cheaper because these cars have safer autopilot/FSD?

It ain't easy competing in the insurance market.
Just like competing in the solar PV business.

Being cheaper across the board would be too risky right now. If they were cheaper for everybody how could they scale that in a week? PR nightmare. Get the amount of customers you can handle and lower your prices when you want more. Any other agency get several thousand customers in a day with one press release and zero advertising? But yeah, next year I would be surprised if they were not cheaper for almost everybody.

 

[KSilver2000]

Tesla insurance would cost me 200 more for half year if I remove the 3 from my current two car policy.

Only $200 more/6 months?

I just input our info and it would cost us ~$950/yr more to take the X out of our auto-only, multi-car AAA policy and sign up with Tesla insurance.

 

[dww12]

Come on Elon, FFSC Hopper, Insurance, 1st China built Model 3 reveal!

 

[saniflash]

I think (I hope) they're selecting for those drivers with the least risk right now and price everyone else out

Being cheaper across the board would be too risky right now. If they were cheaper for everybody how could they scale that in a week? PR nightmare. Get the amount of customers you can handle and lower your prices when you want more. Any other agency get several thousand customers in a day with one press release and zero advertising? But yeah, next year I would be surprised if they were not cheaper for almost everybody.

 

[deffu]

I feel they are cherry picking those people who are currently paying outrageous price/taken advantage of by their current insurance company, not necessarily the best drivers. it's an easy switch for the insured and low hanging fruits for tesla. Gradually, i expect tsla to penetrate deeper into the insurance market. This is a smart move and makes a lot of sense from a business stand point of view.
But again, it shows that we, as investors, need always take what tesla/EM said with tons of salt. Tesla, like any business, tends to exaggerate on things. We need to take extra caution to grab the full picture.
Thats why i think the rollout of Y/Semi/Pickup would not be as rosy as what EM promised or what we expected. Just as how much we hyped Model 3 couple years ago. We all though the SP would be skyrocketing only to see the opposite.

I think (I hope) they're selecting for those drivers with the least risk right now and price everyone else out

 

[TradingInvest]

I think (I hope) they're selecting for those drivers with the least risk right now and price everyone else out

I feel the more likely case is they intended to save customers 10~20%, but their implementation some how failed to achieve the goal. Telling people Tesla can save them up to 20% on car insurance (or even 30%), then give them a rate that's 40% higher? It doesn't look good from customers' point of view.

 

[izemize]

I think (I hope) they're selecting for those drivers with the least risk right now and price everyone else out

@tesla_truth wrote on twitter that he got a significantly lower rate probably because of his previous tickets (see second reply in thread): Steve Jobs Ghost on Twitter

I don't know how that would make any sense, but you know... ¯\_(ツ)_/¯