Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

I think (I hope) they're selecting for those drivers with the least risk right now and price everyone else out

Yes, not a product to rush into. Full steam ahead Shanghai, slow and steady Tesla insurance.

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I think I reverse engineered their insurance algorithm...

repeat {

output price
if (users on reddit are saying it's too high) then

lower price​

else

exit​

}

 

[EVNow]

I've followed your writings in this forum for some time. Your June 23 post on going modular stands out as one of the greatest things I've read this year.

Now I've seen you post a few times about the 2020 election and it seems you are making the error of letting bias and emotion create a blind spot on the subject. For the sake of TSLA investors it's worth remembering a few things lest we be surprised on 4 November 2020.

• Research indicates Americans keep politicians when the economy does well and tire when it does not.
  
• The advantage goes to incumbents.
• Americans since '32 tended to give each party eight years. It takes a lot for a sitting President to lose a second term. Carter's economy was sick. Bush Sr. had Perot splitting the vote. (Well who knows what H. Shultz might do).
• The American polls may show many democrats beating the President but such polls provide as much insight as they did in 2015. National totals are not what matter, key states are. There is utility to the electoral college. Many mid westerners are grateful that the populous California does not decide how they of little population ought to live.
• Studies find most real voters don't think or decide until party nominees are finalized and they have a real choice.

If you step back and analyse the American election, you have ~1/3 who hate the President, and ~1/3 who love him. This election, not unlike the last several, is likely to be determined by nonpartisan, independent, swing voters. These are the persons who have nary a visible voice and as they don't scream at each other there is no place for them on major political channels.

The nonpartisan people are key. They did not vote in midterm elections. They'll wait until the last few debates to watch. They'll look at the economy. Then they'll make a choice.

The American economy is unlikely to fall into a recession between now and election day. Pullback, possibly, but two consecutive quarters of negative growth is unlikely. A slowdown in the growth rate that isn't a recession would still be considered a success for many voters. The Federal Reserve does not appear worried, consumer confidence is strong, and big box retailers are doing better than expected. If the economy is in the drain, the onus then is on the democrat opponent to put forth an appealing economic plan(incumbency advantage), which has not appeared likely.

All this is to say, whether we agree with it or not, like it or not, there remains a strong case that the President will still be in office for a second term.

Too OT to reply here. I'll reply in the politics thread.

 

[SPadival]

well now Buffett can join TSLAQ as Tesla is stepping on his toes too

He's probably already doing it via IIHS - they claimed they could not test the Model X because its a low volume vehicle while they tested the Audi shitron even though it has an abysmal sales number.

Earl of Frunkpuppy on Twitter

 

[Navin]

Enjoy. 2019世界人工智能大会：马云马斯克进行“双马对话” _ 新浪直播间

 

[dww12]

This says live in 20min.

 

[KSilver2000]

Another event that is interesting for the future of Tesla, but nothing that will pump the SP (again).

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

This says live in 20min.

Either we’re on Elon Time or this stream is fake...

 

[madodel]

Either we’re on Elon Time or this stream is fake...

It just started

 

[dww12]

Either we’re on Elon Time or this stream is fake...

Up now.

 

[heltok]

Elon starting very dystopian, saying that AI researchers are not intelligent(compared to a super AI) and thus cannot understand how intelligent an AI will be. Jack Ma, not having any rebuttal just says that he is an optimist. Elon adds more arguments. Jack Ma not sure how counter feeling that he is being intellectually outmatched in this “debate” so he just moves on the conversation to Mars. Jack Ma says that going to Mars is just one step but then getting back is hard. Elon says that’s not how it works. Jack Ma decides that it’s best to keep talking for a while to make it too confusing to argue with him anymore. Elon get’s his social skills back and starts saying some nice positive stuff instead =)

 

[Thekiwi]

This doesn’t seem to be going very well - entirely due to Jack Ma being a bit of a knob (at least that’s the impression I’m getting).

Elon is obviously on another level, and Jack doesn’t seem to like looking stupid but is continuing to spout nonsense

 

[Carl Raymond]

Elon starting very dystopian, saying that AI researchers are not intelligent(compared to a super AI) and thus cannot understand how intelligent an AI will be. Jack Ma, not having any rebuttal just says that he is an optimist. Elon adds more arguments. Jack Ma not sure how counter feeling that he is being intellectually outmatched in this “debate” so he just moves on the conversation to Mars. Jack Ma says that going to Mars is just one step but then getting back is hard. Elon says that’s not how it works. Jack Ma decides that it’s best to keep talking for a while to make it too confusing to argue with him anymore. Elon get’s his social skills back and starts saying some nice positive stuff instead =)

I had to stop watching. Despite both speaking English, a translator was needed to turn tech talk into lay talk. After half an hour, no actual communication had taken place. The lesson seems to be that there are people who simply don’t get Elon, and never will.

 

[anthonyj]

Elon asserting dominance with the man spreading. Q3 profits secured

 

[heltok]

Jack Ma not making any sense about humans>computers. Computers are clever but humans are smarter. Elon ask for an example, gets nothing in return. I wonder how the Chinese viewers will take this, would love to hear from Weibo/Wechat users. My feeling after having read https://www.amazon.com/Age-Ambition-Chasing-Fortune-Truth/dp/0374535272(btw great book if you want to understand China) is that they will just eat up Elon’s words and this should be great for Tesla sales in China...

 

[mongo]

Elon handled that better than I did...
Kudos to him!

 

[powertoold]

I love Elon “ fight for the light of consciousness” then walks off like a boss

 

[defc0n]

Agree that it was painful to watch.

 

[Pras]

Jack Ma still doesn’t seem to get AI. He is questioning the whole essence of the promise AI carries.

Ironically, even though Alibaba is a tech company, they are primarily an e-commerce firm and for them AI is more about voice intelligence, marketing, transaction, and pricing, perhaps. They are mostly solving operational aspects and making future better, but are not focused on transforming the future.

 

[MC3OZ]

I didn't mind it, Jack is more instinctive, Elon more intellectual, we got both sides of the argument, even though they didn't agree on much...

On AI at a technical level Elon is more right than Jack, in terms of a constructive vision for the future of humanity, both have some good points.. Jack is right about a few things, birth rates and an ageing population in particular.