Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[bhtooefr]

One factor affecting things in the US is the number of uninsured and underinsured drivers, too.

(Underinsured? Yep. In the US, mandatory minimums for insurance (when present, New Hampshire doesn't have one) range from $5,000 to $25,000 for property damage, $0 to $30,000 for bodily injury for one person, and $0 to $60,000 for bodily injury for multiple people (and the bodily injury part is important given the costs of healthcare here). Someone with minimum coverage hits and totals a Tesla, the insurance payout is going to be laughable compared to the replacement cost. And, while they may be liable for all of the damage, someone carrying minimum coverage has no assets that a lawsuit could get at.)

A lot of this is because of widespread poverty in the US combined with the need to drive in almost all of the US.

So, this means that your insurer has a higher risk of paying out even when it's not your fault if you get either collision coverage (that is, coverage in which your insurer pays even if it's your fault, which also covers collisions with uninsured and underinsured drivers) or uninsured/underinsured coverage (an add-on for liability-only insurance that means your insurer pays the difference if it's not your fault and the other driver is uninsured or underinsured). And that higher risk means you pay more.

 

[KarenRei]

Got up this morning and started reading into "Tesla insurance". Underwhelming for sure. Kinda like the model Y unveil

I thought it would be more revolutionary, since Tesla has the realtime driving stats, connected car fleet data...etc.
Pricing was too high for most users according to Reddit in comparison to their current rate.

Why not offer a monthly fixed rate with a variable on top (and that part could be negative)?
Variable part could become lower or below zero (rewarding the driver!) when:
- hardly any distance travelled
- no high accelerations
- no speeding (linked to correct maps)
- Sentry mode when parked
- parked in garage or not on near shopping gallaries
- autopilot enabled on highways,...etc

Variable part could increase when you don't use autopilot, do a lot of miles, speeding,...etc

Why not enable/disable some parameters by the user like speed monitoring? If disabled, you add 20$ every month. If enabled and you drive safely, this parameter could drive your monthly insurance bill down.

A lot of parameters should be involved for the variable part and users should view them in realtime on an app or in their car.
(Like how you see Powerwall saving you money because of smart energy usage)

Okay, I'll admit. This is Tesla's first time and only in California. Potential is huge.
But at the moment, it lacks something disruptive, something that other companies don't do.

Agreed. But it's a start. They can mine their "Big Data" later; at least the programme is up and running.

(As for people who have already signed a contract... that rate should be binding until the first opportunity that the contract gives Tesla to change the rates)

It was such a good-sounding rumor, though

I decided it was false as soon as I saw that there would be no live coverage of Musk's arrival and opening speech.

 

[LN1_Casey]

As for people who have already signed a contract... that rate should be binding until the first opportunity that the contract gives Tesla to change the rates.

Contracts can be annuled at the agreement of both parties, or if certain things are met. Often such language is built into the contract, and what such annulment is required of both members.

For instance, miltiary service in the states is a contract between the person and the government. If the person suddenly loses a leg and can't preform their duties any longer, their remaining 2-whatever years on their contract can be terminated, usually after being evaluated that "yeah, missing leg can't preform duties" from some 'neutral' third party.

Can't be simply "i don't like it any more!" But in the case of the current contracts, it could be argued that the algorithm was in error, and can give an opening to early termination.

 

[mongo]

Like, if the Algorithm updates to cheaper for a larger portion of people (say it had an error where it didn't calculate driving history), would they--having already entered into a contract--be compensated?

It's month to month, so exposure is low. Tesla has a history of adjusting prices downward for previous (unfulfilled) orders.

Also, Tesla is oft being compared on a single policy basis to current multi-policy rates. Hard to be competitive there.

That was only speculation based on speculation from not even anonymous sources.

So... if they weren't anonymous, who started the rumour? (Said the monolingual guy)

It surprises me less just how bad Elon is with his communication skills.

I'm going give Elon a lot of credit for remaining civil and conversational. Much improved from the boneheaded/ go to YouTube days. (And don't forget jet lag)

 

[HG Wells]

First model 3 made in China
Tesla Showcases First Model 3 Made In China

May be wrong. Could be just the license plate is made in China.

 

[KarenRei]

First model 3 made in China
Tesla Showcases First Model 3 Made In China

Not like it matters (any display would just be a stunt; they're "assembling cars" at GF3, but still very much in the debugging stage), but according to Vincent, Jay is wrong and that's not a made-in-China Model 3.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla New York on Twitter
Kuh Muh (Елисавета Йорданова Живкова) on Twitter

"Tbh I go completely compliant with what Elon said ... Neuralink must be developed really fast, because otherwise we actually have no chance against the extremely fast growing AI intelligence ... Since I also have to deal with the blockchain I absolutely have to say ...
AI and Blockchain is a dangerous combination and should never be coupled ... Once fed into the blockchain you have no chance to stop the AI ... Please also think of this scenario!"

Aww sh*t!

 

[tschmidty]

You don't understand what you're talking about

What a well thought out and reasoned response, you've certainly convinced me that I should value your opinion.

 

[humbaba]

I just got 2019.32 and it added variable speed limits (not sure what that's all about), more language support and some kind of status bar for software updates - not sure what this last thing is about, will see next update I guess!

For other cars it includes updates for Raven "driving dynamics under heavy acceleration" and a fix for Model S keyfob issue (fob can be updated from the car, apparently!!!).

Maybe its because I drive a model 3, but I just double checked the release notes and there's nothing about variable speed limits.

 

[Mike Smith]

More Tesla Solar-Panel Cases Emerge in Wake of Walmart Suit

'Though they aren’t tracked nationally, rooftop solar fires are rare. Tesla said its customers’ risk of fire is seven times lower than they face from home wiring and lighting. “In the past year, less than 1% of 1% of sites have experienced any type of thermal event necessitating any form of emergency response, and there have been no injuries,” Tesla said in a statement. “While we strive for zero risks across all of our products, this rate of risk presents less of a household danger than a home washer or dryer.”

 

[elasalle]

This doesn’t seem to be going very well - entirely due to Jack Ma being a bit of a knob (at least that’s the impression I’m getting).

Elon is obviously on another level, and Jack doesn’t seem to like looking stupid but is continuing to spout nonsense

Bad debate between English Teacher and Physics Student.
Just shows that anyone can be rich Billionaire, but not everyone can be disciplined Scientist.

 

[TheMrX]

Tesla New York on Twitter
Kuh Muh (Елисавета Йорданова Живкова) on Twitter

"Tbh I go completely compliant with what Elon said ... Neuralink must be developed really fast, because otherwise we actually have no chance against the extremely fast growing AI intelligence ... Since I also have to deal with the blockchain I absolutely have to say ...
AI and Blockchain is a dangerous combination and should never be coupled ... Once fed into the blockchain you have no chance to stop the AI ... Please also think of this scenario!"

Aww sh*t!

Add in quantum computer...

 

[humbaba]

More Tesla Solar-Panel Cases Emerge in Wake of Walmart Suit

'Though they aren’t tracked nationally, rooftop solar fires are rare. Tesla said its customers’ risk of fire is seven times lower than they face from home wiring and lighting. “In the past year, less than 1% of 1% of sites have experienced any type of thermal event necessitating any form of emergency response, and there have been no injuries,” Tesla said in a statement. “While we strive for zero risks across all of our products, this rate of risk presents less of a household danger than a home washer or dryer.”

Taking Tesla's statement at face value, let's look at some numbers.

There are around 139 million homes in the US[1] and there are 2900 home clothes dryer fires reported each year[2]. This gives a rate of one dryer fire per 48,000 homes, annually. Tesla says that they have "less than" one thermal event requiring emergency response per 10,000 installs. So, using Tesla's figures, a Tesla solar install is 5x as likely to require an emergency response.

But what about the results? home dryer fires cause "an estimated 5 deaths, 100 injuries, and $35 million in property loss." While Tesla solar installs have not resulted in any deaths or injuries they are not installed to anywhere near the scale of all homes in the US, but if the home dryer fires were down rated to Tesla's level it would work out to an estimated zero deaths, zero injuries.

I don't think the cited Tesla numbers are any cause for celebration. If it was 0.1% of 1% it would be "better", but it really needs to be far less frequent than that. While the "1% of 1%" is a facile sound bite and should not be taken too seriously if the real rate were around "one in a million" then I think they would say that.

1) Numbrt of houses in U.S. | Statista

2) Clothes dryer fire safety outreach materials

 

[mongo]

Taking Tesla's statement at face value, let's look at some numbers.

There are around 139 million homes in the US[1] and there are 2900 home clothes dryer fires reported each year[2]. This gives a rate of one dryer fire per 48,000 homes, annually. Tesla says that they have "less than" one thermal event requiring emergency response per 10,000 installs. So, using Tesla's figures, a Tesla solar install is 5x as likely to require an emergency response.

But what about the results? home dryer fires cause "an estimated 5 deaths, 100 injuries, and $35 million in property loss." While Tesla solar installs have not resulted in any deaths or injuries they are not installed to anywhere near the scale of all homes in the US, but if the home dryer fires were down rated to Tesla's level it would work out to an estimated zero deaths, zero injuries.

I don't think the cited Tesla numbers are any cause for celebration. If it was 0.1% of 1% it would be "better", but it really needs to be far less frequent than that. While the "1% of 1%" is a facile sound bite and should not be taken to seriously if the real rate were around "one in a million" then I think they would say that.

1) Numbrt of houses in U.S. | Statista

2) Clothes dryer fire safety outreach materials

Clothes dryers are not the only source of "home wiring and lighting" fires. Edit: i think dryers count as appliance fires, a different category.

Per FEMA, electrical fires happen in roughly 1:6,000 homes :

• From 2014 to 2016, an estimated 24,000 residential building electrical fires were reported to United States fire departments each year. These fires caused an estimated 310 deaths, 850 injuries and $871 million in property loss.
  
• Residential building electrical fires resulted in over twice the dollar loss per fire than residential building nonelectrical fires did.
  
• Residential building electrical fires occurred most often in one- and two-family dwellings (83 percent).
  
• Residential building electrical fires occurred most often in the winter month of January (12 percent).
  
• In only 17 percent of residential building electrical fires, the fire spread was limited to the object where the fire started.
  
• Residential building electrical fires most often started in bedrooms (15 percent) and attics or vacant crawl spaces (13 percent).
  
• The leading specific items most often first ignited in residential building electrical fires were electrical wire, cable insulation (31 percent) and structural member or framing (18 percent).
  
• The leading specific factors contributing to the ignition of residential building electrical fires were other electrical failure, malfunction (43 percent), unspecified short-circuit arc (23 percent), and short-circuit arc from defective, worn insulation (11 percent).
  
• Smoke alarms were present in 51 percent and automatic extinguishing systems (AESs) were present in 3 percent of electrical fires that occurred in occupied residential buildings.

 

[humbaba]

Clothes dryers are not the only source of "home wiring and lighting" fires. Edit: i think dryers count as appliance fires, a different category.

Per FEMA, electrical fires happen in roughly 1:6,000 homes :

• From 2014 to 2016, an estimated 24,000 residential building electrical fires were reported to United States fire departments each year. These fires caused an estimated 310 deaths, 850 injuries and $871 million in property loss.
  
• Residential building electrical fires resulted in over twice the dollar loss per fire than residential building nonelectrical fires did.
  
• Residential building electrical fires occurred most often in one- and two-family dwellings (83 percent).
  
• Residential building electrical fires occurred most often in the winter month of January (12 percent).
  
• In only 17 percent of residential building electrical fires, the fire spread was limited to the object where the fire started.
  
• Residential building electrical fires most often started in bedrooms (15 percent) and attics or vacant crawl spaces (13 percent).
  
• The leading specific items most often first ignited in residential building electrical fires were electrical wire, cable insulation (31 percent) and structural member or framing (18 percent).
  
• The leading specific factors contributing to the ignition of residential building electrical fires were other electrical failure, malfunction (43 percent), unspecified short-circuit arc (23 percent), and short-circuit arc from defective, worn insulation (11 percent).
  
• Smoke alarms were present in 51 percent and automatic extinguishing systems (AESs) were present in 3 percent of electrical fires that occurred in occupied residential buildings.

So you think it is acceptable that a Tesla solar installation could be five times as likely to have a "thermal event" as a dryer simply because there are other sources of home fires? Comparing a single source of fires to "all others" does nothing to establish the relative safety of that single source.

Maybe its not clear: I'm not saying that Tesla solar installations are a problem. I am saying the numbers given by Tesla are not a good look.

 

[scaesare]

AI is certainly still not understood well by the general population. It’s similar to how well most people understood the internet in the 80s or 90s.

I gather that Jack understood the strength of generic computer algorithms, but not the strength of AI machine learning.

AI is not that difficult to understand. It's a series of little tubes....

 

[mongo]

OT...

So you think it is acceptable that a Tesla solar installation could be five times as likely to have a "thermal event" as a dryer simply because there are other sources of home fires? Comparing a single source of fires to "all others" does nothing to establish the relative safety of that single source.

Maybe its not clear: I'm not saying that Tesla solar installations are a problem. I am saying the numbers given by Tesla are not a good look.

Comparing apples to oranges is not useful for any discussion of the severity of a problem. Dryers should never catch on fire, they are UL tested to not do that and have safety circuits installed to prevent it. House wiring safety is fully dependent on the quality of installation and
operating conditions afterward. Is it acceptable that a house is eight times as likely to catch on fire from its wiring than from a dryer fire?

Garages are twice as likely to catch on fire than dryers. Again from FEMA:

An estimated 6,600 residential building garage fires were reported to United States fire
departments each year and caused an estimated 30 deaths, 400 injuries and $457 million
in property loss.

Tesla electrical installations, while not perfect, have a lower incidence of failure than the houses they are installed in (macro). Given the general public's lack of knowledge of fire rates, that is a relevant fact to provide.

 

[Bet the House]

This doesn’t seem to be going very well - entirely due to Jack Ma being a bit of a knob (at least that’s the impression I’m getting).

Elon is obviously on another level, and Jack doesn’t seem to like looking stupid but is continuing to spout nonsense

I think Jack Ma embarrassed himself next to Elon.

Ma - "Humans created computers. Computers never created a human, therefore humans are smarter than computers."
Elon - (thinking to himself) "How was this guy picked to discuss AI alongside me? This guy is an idiot."

 

[jerry33]

OT...


Comparing apples to oranges is not useful for any discussion of the severity of a problem. Dryers should never catch on fire, they are UL tested to not do that and have safety circuits installed to prevent it

Strictly speaking, dryers almost never catch on fire. The fire starts in the vent and the lint catches fire. However, it's classified as a dryer fire (AFAIK). No amount of UL testing can prevent that because it's a maintenance issue that almost no one does. The solution is a condensing dryer that doesn't have a vent.

 

[Unpilot]

Pre-Market up over $4...sorry I know this is the dryer lint forum...just did not know were to post.