Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CalX]

The drop correlates more with the insideev estimates but if you add July and August compared to the first two month of last quarter, it's not bad at all. I think we still have a good shot of beating Q2.

 

[KSilver2000]

At this point I'm really tired of the estimates from InsideEVs. Its borderline stock manipulation because they are not official numbers, yet they can push the stock in either direction.

To me at least, it's very apparent that they underestimate on the first 2 months of the quarter so that they can match the official quarterly number from Tesla and have it "make sense". They're afraid of overestimating monthly numbers because then they would have to post only a moderate increase in the 3rd month. I'm sure that they are confident in their methodology but they've been shown to be off before and the fact that they refuse to post their estimates of 3rd month sales before Tesla posts theirs reeks of them making guesses in their estimates

Well, their estimates are just that, estimates.
They’re not claiming to be precise or accurate.
If they overestimated, there will also be people complaining. So, just take it for what it is, an estimate.

My takeaway from them is new Raven update still not really doing a big favor to overall Tesla sales volume.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

I continue to be disappointed in big money investors that are not from Wall St during these bear raids on days and news events like these. I have a very hard time seeing how the big boys wouldn't see at least some potential in Tesla at these price points and buying up any bear raids that happen.

 

[willw64]

The drop correlates more with the insideev estimates but if you add July and August compared to the first two month of last quarter, it's not bad at all. I think we still have a good shot of beating Q2.

If there isn't quarterly sequential unit growth with at worst margin stability if not improvement the stock is going to get hammered.

 

[anthonyj]

I continue to be disappointed in big money investors that are not from Wall St during these bear raids on days and news events like these. I have a very hard time seeing how the big boys wouldn't see at least some potential in Tesla at these price points and buying up any bear raids that happen.

Accumulation is happening slowly. This isn’t a bear raid though. This is just day traders. I’ve never seen a stock like this one. They are picking up pennies infront of a steamroller, might get a leaked email from Musk soon

 

[willw64]

I continue to be disappointed in big money investors that are not from Wall St during these bear raids on days and news events like these. I have a very hard time seeing how the big boys wouldn't see at least some potential in Tesla at these price points and buying up any bear raids that happen.

Agree. As masterful a job at Musk did with courting the Chinese and getting GigaFactory3 online, I wish he would do the same in the U.S. to alter and enhance the large investor base.

 

[FreqFlyer]

hmmm... so you are saying $200k avg price and $17k profit so 8.5% gross margin? At those price points it is a substantial chunk of change, but I expected Porsche to have better margins. Am I missing something?

The $17K is what they averaged per car in net profit. EVs are presently more expensive to build than ICE if one is not setup for it. I am just explaining the $$200K price. Porsche is going to price the car so they that make a descent profit on it, hence the "high" price.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Well, their estimates are just that, estimates.
They’re not claiming to be precise or accurate.
If they overestimated, there will also be people complaining. So, just take it for what it is, an estimate.

My takeaway from them is new Raven update still not really doing a big favor to overall Tesla sales volume.

Except that its market moving.....the drop in Tesla stock can be pin pointed to correlate with the inside ev numbers. I don't care if they state these are just estimates. They are presenting these numbers as informed estimates. Based on what? If they were confident in their methodology, they would always release the 3rd month estimates before Tesla releases official numbers. That's market manipulation. What sites can get away with nowadays blows mind. You can practically make up anything

 

[SGordB]

The drop correlates more with the insideev estimates but if you add July and August compared to the first two month of last quarter, it's not bad at all. I think we still have a good shot of beating Q2.

Yeah, that would make 26,600 M3s for the first two months of Q3 vs 24,000 for first two of Q2 -- an 11% Q-over-Q increase.

 

[FreqFlyer]

insideevs

“Tesla Model 3 Deliveries In U.S.
Our estimates show that Tesla delivered some 13,150 Model 3 to U.S. buyers in August 2019. That's a wee bit down from the 13,450 Model 3s to U.S. buyers in July 2019. And it's substantially down from the 21,225 delivered in June (end of the quarter month) and below the 13,950 Model 3 delivered to U.S. buyers in May 2019, but well above the 10,050 Model 3 delivered to U.S. buyers in April 2019.”

Oversees deliveries are definitely taking a bite out US deliveries.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I continue to be disappointed in big money investors that are not from Wall St during these bear raids on days and news events like these. I have a very hard time seeing how the big boys wouldn't see at least some potential in Tesla at these price points and buying up any bear raids that happen.

Why should they hurry? They clearly have at least a month to sit and plan. Plus they're only back from the beach two days and the kids re off to school. Give it a couple weeks, a $40B valuation right now is absurd.

Uber has tanked and is still somehow worth $54B. This will all be laughable in retrospect.

 

[Thekiwi]

Hence their imminent demise.

"I think moats are lame," Musk said on the call. "They're like nice in a sort of quaint, vestigial way. But if your only defense against invading armies is a moat, you will not last long. What matters is the pace of innovation. That is the fundamental determinant of competitiveness."

so better to have wheels on your castle, so when the invading armies have spent time marching siege towers to storm your battlements, your castle is in a completely different location. Repeat ad infinitum

 

[TheTalkingMule]

**** BREAKING NEWS ****

POTUS leaks forecast for 40% S&P500 appreciation "without the trade war". Invest accordingly. SEC investigation pending.

Correction: The earlier reported S&P appreciation was actually intended to read DOW30.

 

[204EV]

I hear you. At the same time its hard to resist analyzing the most realistic competitor Tesla has. And I think it is relevant -- Tesla is still small and only on the cusp of sustainability. If Porsche had delivered the hype of a true Tesla killer then that could endanger Tesla's growth. So, as an investor, I find it important to be informed on the matter. Kinda like the Brexit analysis which I know really annoy some but I find valuable.

I like the Norway delivery numbers (and the Netherlands), but smaller markets are prone to significant variation due to a number of reasons so while I do track the Norway deliveries I find it hard to make any useful projection from them. It does seem to me that it may be settling in on sustained demand -- March 2019 numbers were through the roof, July's more realistic and I expect September to drop a bit more. And I'm curious to see if I'm right, and how many quarters it takes to settle. But there also seems to be a fair amount of noise -- I wouldn't try to make any strong predictions from the data.

Oversees deliveries are definitely taking a bite out US deliveries.

us deliveries are up over 10% this quarter already. I would hardly call that taking a bite.

quick back of napkin math puts Tesla at approx 180 Mil extra revenue QoQ so far

 

[Nocturnal]

The Porsche/Tesla comparisons are inevitable but not important in the scheme of things. The Taycan is a different market segment than either the S or 3 and they won't be making them in any sort of volume. If anything it's a positive as a few more decent EVs will take away some of the (stupid) stigma the diehard gas derps still see.

Funny all this angst about the Porsche Taycan. It’s a Porsche, enough said. If you are a car guy , you get it, if you are a tree hugger you don’t.

Range? If you are dropping $200k on a Taycan, you are using the 2nd or 3rd car, whatever that may be to go on long trips.

That's fanboy talk. Also, some car guys care about pollution.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Yeah, that would make 26,600 M3s for the first two months of Q3 vs 24,000 for first two of Q2 -- an 11% Q-over-Q increase.

And Model S from 1850 to 2025 (+11%) Q-over-Q and Model X from 2425 to 2950 (+22%). So this bear raid has no merit.

 

[Doggydogworld]

To me at least, it's very apparent that they underestimate on the first 2 months of the quarter...

Tesla says they delivered >50% of Q1 in the last 10 days, they leaked emails indicating ~33k in June (includes Canada), we see huge tent-sale type events right up to midnight at the end of each quarter and they regularly talk about problems caused by delivering so many cars in the 3rd month, yet you think InsideEVs underestimates the first two months as part of some stock manipulation scheme?

I think 13k+ is really good. I thought their July number was high - the death cult dug up TX/CO/etc. registration data indicating <10k. I expected 11-12k for August and am surprised to see a mini-selloff over 13k. They're apparently sending more cars overseas than in Q2, so a repeat of Q2 in North America should push global sales close to 100k this quarter. And you know if they're close Elon will pull out all the stops to get over the hump.

 

[Artful Dodger]

What sites can get away with nowadays blows mind.

...can't fix that for you |Family-friendly site|.

Cheers!

 

[Thekiwi]

Those insideEV estimates are good news - nice uptick on all models in US DESPITE increase in international markets served (don’t forget all the RHD markets being opened this quarter) and solid numbers so far from Europe.

So far so good on Q3 increasing on Q2 deliveries.

 

[SGordB]

And Model S from 1850 to 2025 (+11%) Q-over-Q and Model X from 2425 to 2950 (+22%). So this bear raid has no merit.

And to riff on this even more, a substantial Q-over-Q increase in non-U.S. M3 sales this quarter seems baked in, given the expanding markets and likely logistics improvements.