Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

On EV CPO it shows 727 in Model 3 inventory. Last week it was at 450. The week before 272.

The website shows 25 in Kansas City which is honestly the most I remember seeing.
I would think increased production means higher inventory and the inventory is going up now because they are going to sell as many as they can in the US at the end of the quarter before loading ships up again for overseas delivery.

It would be so much easier to figure things out if there was no delivery lag, no (changable) production/delivery patterns, and instead cars just came into existence and teleported themselves to owners' homes at the moment of an order

Is there any way to get a history graph from EV CPO? Or are you just remembering past numbers? It'd be nice to compare to past quarters at the same timeframe.

 

[Unpilot]

The oldest Republican and Democratic trick in the book: U.S. administrations using the show of military force for election purposes is a bipartisan concept.

We do seem incapable of learning. Miss-information campaigns do work ....sadly.

 

[mongo]

Per the recent leaked Tesla internal call regarding distribution, these inventory increase makes sense as they would have unassigned vehicles visible at the delivery centers versus hidden at the factory.
Elon Musk wants to fix Tesla's logistic issues by taking a page out of Amazon's book - Electrek

 

[HG Wells]

Other than Tesla is there any car company that has such low inventory ?
Even within an order of magnitude ?
Perhaps two orders of magnitude ?

Must include dealers inventory.

 

[Fact Checking]

Well, at least it's not as bad as I-Pace. They've now dropped below 1000 per month globally, and below 200 per month in the US.

They got really tired from all the Tesla killing.

 

[StealthP3D]

Pre-market seems to have a little tail wind from rising oil prices. I wonder what the correlation between Tesla and the oil price will be? Arguably before the 3 came out the correlation didn't matter so much as the vehicle were unaffordable to most regardless of oil prices.

With regard to the way the market prices TSLA shares:

The obvious tug-of-war is the possibility of expensive oil economic slowdown (which makes the transition to electric more difficult) vs. the raised awareness of just how important it really is to make that transition. This will be determined politically and my read on the situation is that the raised awareness of the need to transition will outshine any impact on the economy caused by higher oil prices. By far.

The economy used to be highly sensitive to oil prices but, in recent decades, this impact has been greatly exaggerated in order to give big oil greater freedoms. The economy has already diversified somewhat from oil and domestic US production has further muted the impact (high oil prices greatly increases the profits of the domestic oil industry).

 

[uselesslogin]

It would be so much easier to figure things out if there was no delivery lag, no (changable) production/delivery patterns, and instead cars just came into existence and teleported themselves to owners' homes at the moment of an order

Is there any way to get a history graph from EV CPO? Or are you just remembering past numbers? It'd be nice to compare to past quarters at the same timeframe.

I have actually been collecting the global inventory number and saving it. The thing is this represents about a day of Model 3 production and S/X has been relatively stable at less than a week of inventory. I don't know if ev-cpo sees all the inventory but, obviously, if this does somehow represent all of Tesla's inventory then it seems like they are selling everything that rolls of the line almost immediately.

 

[Stars aligned]

3 weeks in a row, Northern VA M3 new inventory (200 miles) at 100+. Prior to that, mostly used to be 50 max.
Either inventory not going down, or production in step with keeping inventory at same level.

Anyone seeing the same in other (US) areas?

If I look here Tesla Inventory List - Find your next car I see 1646 for USA right now. Yesterday it was >2000, but I guess some were allocated to customers today. Last week it was fluctuating between 1100 and 1300, and before it was mostly below 1000. Interestingly last week, it was mostly SR+ and almost no P's.

I suppose the numbers of this site are quite accurate as I look regularly at them and they seem plausible. For example, it showed at one point 4000 Model S pre Raven before they started incentives to sell them, and at this point it was broadly known that S did not sell well. Also European inventories make sense.

It will be interesting to watch the inventory numbers as we approach quarter end.

 

[HG Wells]

OH my god. 1500 vehicles.
I bet there is a dealer in the US, that has more inventory than that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Miss-information

That's "Ms. Information". Becuz its 2019.

 

[StealthP3D]

Bob Lutz on CNBC briefly offers temperate comment on TSLA by saying to see how this quarter goes. Joe K. actually said In plain words they regret the lack of controversial tweets from EM.

Oh, come on Joe, don't regret it, just do what you always do, get creative and figure out an alternative way to make Tesla/Musk seem like lunatic fringe that only a crazy person would invest in.

Seems to me from an investor perspective the story of the weekend is the recalculation of the risk component of ICE autos with fuel security questions as well as union issues and building climate change anxiety in a US election year. How do auto stocks get valued.

Yes, anything that highlights the problems oil causes in the world is a net positive for TSLA. Anyone thinking this will initiate a recession hasn't been paying attention to past oil conflicts.

 

[Sean Wagner]

I don't want to take the main thread off course for too long, but the price of oil is relevant to the global economy, never mind demand for EVs in general - and I think these two comments warrant an answer.

This was not done with widely available commercial drones. These were almost certainly military grade.

The foremost question to ask is what payload is necessary given pinpoint accuracy [which by the way obviously requires informed analysis and controller proficiency]. I propose a scenario where a single pound of "plastic" explosive will do the trick.
Why fly that in from afar? Molotov cocktails were invented and used despite their provenance from outside an armory.

Yes, there's widespread misconception about how large military drones are, in reality modern drones have the size of a fighter jet:

Those are Global Hawks, built in very limited quantities.
The main US arsenal is centered around the significantly smaller but still pretty big Predator-type UAVs.

But when all you need is some pickups or fishing trawlers, some people, and a few pounds of explosives cum relatively short-range delivery systems, possibilities multiply.

See:
Viper Vantage OGI Gas Leak Detection System
Viper Vantage OGI Gas Leak Detection System • Viper Drones
Software written in USA!

Or somewhat bigger:
Power Line Inspection with the Scout UAV helicopter

Alrighty. It's a scenario specifically tailored to the resource-poor. Like commercial airliners being abducted and flown into buildings.

That's it on this topic from me - thank you for your interest.

 

[Hock1]

This is a great synopsis of the Tesla picture, from many angles. Regarding the short conspiracy and the apparent futility in being long, the idea of a new security, in the form of a spinoff to existing shareholders, is looking more and more like the best (and maybe the only) way to solve this problem. JMO.

How Patrick Byrne’s Final Act at Overstock Crushed Short Sellers

For those following the OSTK vs shorts saga and the ploy of distributing a new security to existing shareholders.

 

[Unpilot]

MMD is in full swing right now.

 

[Stars aligned]

I have actually been collecting the global inventory number and saving it. The thing is this represents about a day of Model 3 production and S/X has been relatively stable at less than a week of inventory. I don't know if ev-cpo sees all the inventory but, obviously, if this does somehow represent all of Tesla's inventory then it seems like they are selling everything that rolls of the line almost immediately.

View attachment 455420

I've to say that the numbers on the chart and those from teslastats don't match. Don't know which one is more accurate, though.

 

[sparcs]

looks like TSLA heading down with macros now.

 

[Todd Burch]

looks like TSLA heading down with macros now.

Ironic since a lot of macro events (UAW strike, increasing oil prices) are actually positive events from Tesla's perspective.

 

[Driver Dave]

ICE workers are striking!

+

Oil price is surging!

=

Sell TSLA!


Market, so weird sometimes...

 

[StealthP3D]

Yes, there's widespread misconception about how large military drones are, in reality modern drones have the size of a fighter jet:

The U.S. has hundreds of such large drones, with hundreds of drone pilots remotely tending to them from thousands of miles away when deployed.

And here's how big the drones in Iran's drone fleet are:

Military drones are basically remote controlled small scale bombers, rocket-ships and surveillance platforms that can inflict serious damage to industrial installations if armed with bombs or short range incendiary rockets. Iran and their Yemenese allies would certainly have the know-how on how to inflict maximum damage to oil processing factories...

A big question is whether these were drones launched from Yemen, or directly from Iran. Even if it's the former I'd expect the Trump administration to lie about it and pretend that the attack came from Iran. Trump absolutely wants the distraction of warfare, he's been building towards an explosive 2020 show of military force for 3 years - and if they are in the year leading up to the November elections then the "Mission accomplished!" glory can be reaped, without the risk of years of ugly aftermath.

There's also the Israeli elections tomorrow, where the far right is using a customary fear based campaign.

The oldest Republican and Democratic trick in the book: U.S. administrations using the show of military force for political purposes is a bipartisan concept.

I disagree that the drones pictured were the size or type of drones used in yesterday's attacks.

The first drone is a large electronic surveillance drone and while the second is a strategic strike drone that is designed to return to base, there is no evidence the drones used Sunday returned to base. They were likely small expendable drones that could be purchased/modified by an organization for a couple of million dollars or less. There were nine of them according to reports I've seen. But the same reports said that Iran launched a number of missiles (which I tend to doubt without more specific confirmation).

 

[dc_h]

I don't want to take the main thread off course for too long, but the price of oil is relevant to the global economy, never mind demand for EVs in general - and I think these two comments warrant an answer.




The foremost question to ask is what payload is necessary given pinpoint accuracy [which by the way obviously requires informed analysis and controller proficiency]. I propose a scenario where a single pound of "plastic" explosive will do the trick.
Why fly that in from afar? Molotov cocktails were invented and used despite their provenance from outside an armory.




Those are Global Hawks, built in very limited quantities.
The main US arsenal is centered around the significantly smaller but still pretty big Predator-type UAVs.

But when all you need is some pickups or fishing trawlers, some people, and a few pounds of explosives cum relatively short-range delivery systems, possibilities multiply.

See:
Viper Vantage OGI Gas Leak Detection System
Viper Vantage OGI Gas Leak Detection System • Viper Drones
Software written in USA!

Or somewhat bigger:
Power Line Inspection with the Scout UAV helicopter

Alrighty. It's a scenario specifically tailored to the resource-poor. Like commercial airliners being abducted and flown into buildings.

That's it on this topic from me - thank you for your interest.

I don’t think you understand the scale of these facilities. This is not Jesse and Walt making meth, these sites can cover hundreds of swuarr miles and are surrounded by layers of security. A Jeep might get to the first parameter, but not be within any line of site. Saudi Arabia is also not an open country like the USA. An in country organization trying this would likely be discovered by internal security forces and dealt with in ways you can’t imagine. The drones used in this attack may not be Predator scale or capabilities, but they would be sophisticated devices capable of remote control and delivery of sophisticated missiles, not a pipe bomb or some C4 with a timer. If the Yemenis did this, it would have required money, training and significant smuggling. It’s definitely possible, but this was a sophisticated attack, much more then our 9-11. Whoever did it is real military class people.
For better or worse, it does sound like the saudis have some backup or slack in the rest of their systems to make up some lost production, but I still think they will lose capacity permanently. The odds of us making a significant counter attack is also small. This highlights the ability to shut down Iraqi and any facilities within hundreds of miles of Iran at any step up in hostilities and the potential loss of additional Saudi production.