Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

I'm getting nervous about delivery numbers this quarter as Tesla is now giving a free option as well as 2 years free supercharging to sell Model 3s.

I keep hearing how Tesla sells all they can build - but they have to discount them heavily to sell them it seems. I've never seen a company discount a product they had people in line waiting to buy.

But then I read about people who ordered months ago and still haven't gotten their car. What gives?

You've never heard of dealership discounts? All of the various incentives they give to help clear car lots? If you think this is just a Tesla thing to have incentives to clear out inventory -- where have you been?

How can Tesla have instant sales and also have excess inventory? It has already been covered in this thread so if you want more just scroll back. But the short of it is that when you are producing and shipping as fast as Tesla is, you necessarily make guesses (informed by past sales patterns) as to what to make and where to ship it. In general this works pretty well, but inevitably there are cases where they overproduce and deliver a particular spec and -- rather than have it blocking space needed for other sales they can try to convince a customer to take it instead of the specs they were looking for. Conversely, sometimes there are shortages for a particular spec in a particular area. And this can change quickly given the high flow rate.

For legacy manufacturers, this problem is diffused by the dealership network. They have a built in production latency, recently discussed as 72-80 days of production. What the heck is that? Their latency is nearly a quarter? Tesla doesn't operate like that. So hiccups happen. This is nothing new or scary.

 

[KarenRei]

I'm getting nervous about delivery numbers this quarter as Tesla is now giving a free option as well as 2 years free supercharging to sell Model 3s.

I keep hearing how Tesla sells all they can build - but they have to discount them heavily to sell them it seems. I've never seen a company discount a product they had people in line waiting to buy.

But then I read about people who ordered months ago and still haven't gotten their car. What gives?

What gives? Cars don't teleport themselves around the world or magically adapt themselves between varieties.

Logistics is hard :Þ

BTW, if you want to mess with a model of Q3 deliveries:

Q3 delivery model

Change it back when you're done if you change anything.

 

[RiverCard]

Even farther OT, this reminds me that I haven't heard anything about the hyperloop lately....

Gary is hustling, an order of magnitude of advanced Boring.

 

[uselesslogin]

Well I don't know if this is progress or just Omaha but here is the way we all wish most headlines involving a Tesla would read.

Charges pending against woman who was hit by car while riding scooter in Omaha, police say

 

[FreqFlyer]

Probably, if you can actually get it built. In CA, the “high speed rail” is now going to be just between Bakersfield and Fresno(a short stretch out in farm country in the Central Valley), so practically worthless, and for an order of magnitude more money than was promised for LA->SF.

The reason its not going through LA or San Fran are the Climate Change believing NIMBYs..............Ironic isn't it?

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Elon addressed this in a Tweet a few days ago.

Elon Musk on Twitter

Then why do they ALWAYS happen with 2 or 3 weeks left in the quarter?

And the options they are given out for free....was actually charging for it the wrong value? Will they continue to give one option for free after September 30th?

"as we sometimes get prices of some variants wrong"

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Well I don't know if this is progress or just Omaha but here is the way we all wish most headlines involving a Tesla would read.

Charges pending against woman who was hit by car while riding scooter in Omaha, police say

Wow. That is shocking. But you really shouldn't have posted that here. The haters will seize upon it now, distort the facts, and make no mention of the scooter driver running the red light. It will be on every news site's website tomorrow some time.

 

[Darkfox021]

Then why do they ALWAYS happen with 2 or 3 weeks left in the quarter?

And the options they are given out for free....was actually charging for it the wrong value? Will they continue to give one option for free after September 30th?

"as we sometimes get prices of some variants wrong"

Because any other time earlier in the quarter, Tesla would have time to deliver the exact car the customer ordered.

ETA: no, incentives disappear when the strong incentive for Tesla to Max out deliveries expires.

 

[dc_h]

The reason its not going through LA or San Fran are the Climate Change believing NIMBYs..............Ironic isn't it?

I think it’s not going through cause it’s a billion dollars a mile and slow, not fast.

 

[kengchang]

Then why do they ALWAYS happen with 2 or 3 weeks left in the quarter?

And the options they are given out for free....was actually charging for it the wrong value? Will they continue to give one option for free after September 30th?

"as we sometimes get prices of some variants wrong"

It will keep happening until GF3 is ramped up and GF4 is built. Just not enough cars to spread around the world to satisfy every individual's option.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

BTW, if you want to mess with a model of Q3 deliveries:

Q3 delivery model

Well, that does indeed look good.

DO we even have a target number, or analysts consensus for deliveries this quarter. I know to make the yearly minimum estimate Tesla needs to sell around 200k plus cars (like 203k I think) the last 2 quarters. So they need at least 102k. That should be fairly easy. But I guess they want to deliver all they can - but I hate pulling demand forward, and giving incentives to do it.

 

[sparcs]

Then why do they ALWAYS happen with 2 or 3 weeks left in the quarter?

And the options they are given out for free....was actually charging for it the wrong value? Will they continue to give one option for free after September 30th?

"as we sometimes get prices of some variants wrong"

Elon Musk on Twitter

scroll back to early Saturday 9/14 in the thread and Elon's tweets are pretty thoroughly dissected.

 

[Beltsbear]

And/or, workplace charging, which has the added benefit of aligning charging with the daily solar peak.

Workplace charging that was smart (utility controlled) could solve many problems. Most days you would not need much so utility could throttle at worst times and dump excess solar at others.

 

[Electroman]

Believe me, not everyone uses Twitter and knows what an Elon Musk is.

Well.. that is strange !


Seinfeld Clip - Kramer Meets Elaine's Dr. Restin

 

[Singer3000]

Did you include the 1k-2k/week Model S/X production?

I am assuming a number between 1-2k Model S&X, I don’t think Tesla had much clue in July what demand would be for them in December.

They made a point of talking up Fremont’s imminent capacity for 7k/week in the letter (albeit not sustained or all systems working at the same time). I guess it wouldn’t be hard to tune that to 8k with no more major capex.

And then 3k a week from Shanghai. Add on S&X and you’re roughly at a run rate of 600k per year all in by say middle of 2020.

Then we get Model Y from Fremont at the back half of 2020 but that’s capex not yet spent & accounted for.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

I'm getting nervous about delivery numbers this quarter as Tesla is now giving a free option as well as 2 years free supercharging to sell Model 3s.

I keep hearing how Tesla sells all they can build - but they have to discount them heavily to sell them it seems. I've never seen a company discount a product they had people in line waiting to buy.

But then I read about people who ordered months ago and still haven't gotten their car. What gives?

I may have to eat a little crow here - they're giving free supercharging for life, OR the 2 free options.

 

[StealthP3D]

Non-affluent people will begin buying Teslas en mass when charging stations become ubiquitous at apartment complexes and not one second sooner.

You don't have to be affluent to be a homeowner!

 

[dc_h]

I am assuming a number between 1-2k Model S&X, I don’t think Tesla had much clue in July what demand would be for them in December.

They made a point of talking up Fremont’s imminent capacity for 7k/week in the letter (albeit not sustained or all systems working at the same time). I guess it wouldn’t be hard to tune that to 8k with no more major capex.

And then 3k a week from Shanghai. Add on S&X and you’re roughly at a run rate of 600k per year all in by say middle of 2020.

Then we get Model Y from Fremont at the back half of 2020 but that’s capex not yet spent & accounted for.

Well; they are building GA5 shortly, if not starting now. Who knows what GA5 is for, could be a line for a slow prep for the Y, or move a line out of the building to start building the Y test units in private, or just to crank it up to 8000-10,000 model 3’s a week in Q4 or Q1. I doubt they’ll build this tent in two weeks, but it shouldn’t take long once they start.

 

[MC3OZ]

With the new domestic and commercial solar leases, the customer pays for electricity they consume, but if there is excess electrcity I assume it becomes "feed in" to the grid and is owned by Tesla.?

Can anyone confirm or reject?

 

[Carl Raymond]

Non-affluent people will begin buying Teslas en mass when charging stations become ubiquitous at apartment complexes and not one second sooner. It is by far the number one reason all the young people I know have declined to buy one after riding in mine, and in many cases the ONLY thing stopping them. But it IS a deal breaker for almost all of them. Tesla really ought to be making some kind of huge push to electrify apartment parking spaces.

The model 3 is firmly aimed at that demographic, but the vast majority absolutely will not buy one if they can’t charge it at home. I’m speaking from dozens of first-hand conversations here.

They wouldn’t have to be superchargers - simple 240v chargers would be fine.

In Australia some units come with a parking space, but it’s equally common and much the same price to buy/rent a unit with a lock up garage, with 240V power (for the roller door if nothing else).

As EVs become a cost saver, demand for the latter will increase. Landlords/developers of the former will be pushed/forced to add power to parking spaces to compete for tenants. The invisible hand of the market will sort it out.