Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Doggydogworld]

So my brother just told me he pulled the trigger on a M3.

Guns don't kill Teslas, people kill Teslas....

Even if we believed InsideEV numbers for Jan, Feb - we didn't know the EU delivery problems would be so bad. If they had managed to deliver 10k more in EU - TSLA would have never seen 180.

Euro logistics problems didn't affect the final numbers much in Q1. Things looked really bad on 3/20, but heroic last minute measures got most of the cars into buyers' hands. Tesla guided that Model 3 deliveries would be 10k less than production in Q1. They ended up with just over 12k. Some cars did spill over from Q1 into Q2, but that happens every quarter. The Q2->Q3 spill over was very similar.

The real problem with Q1 was the S/X collapse. They guided 21k and only delivered 12k. That wasn't logistics,

 

[jerry33]

The real problem with Q1 was the S/X collapse. They guided 21k and only delivered 12k. That wasn't logistics,

1. Manufacturing was shut down to convert to Raven.
2. Raven was leaked prematurely so people waited to purchase. (This was probably a good thing or this thread would be filled with "I just bought an S and now it's obsolete" posts).
3. The 75 was stopped, so only the higher priced versions were left.
4. Q1 is always a slow quarter for car sales.
It really was just the price of progress.

 

[Singer3000]

Agreed.

They'd probably also be well served to reuse existing components as much as possible, such as ~four Model 3 LR packs. It's slightly more mass, but both serviceability and economics of scale would be massively on their side.

The Semi, if done right, is basically multiple new drive unit based on the Model 3 rear motor, Model 3 battery packs, plus a frame and chassis. HW3 is probably powerful enough to simultaneously process the ~20 cameras of the Semi.

I wouldn't call it simple, but it's far simpler than the insanely complex, heavy and huge diesel engines of ICE Class 8 trucks.

Both FC and Doggy make the Semi sound a relatively straightforward step up from Model 3 from a development perspective. And with an initial ramp that will necessarily be slow due to customer behaviour.

So why is it taking so long?

 

[Todd Burch]

Reports of Autopilot asking people if they disengaged due to a fault or whether it was planned.

Video from that thread:
Tesla_saves_lives on Twitter

 

[Singer3000]

1. Manufacturing was shut down to convert to Raven.
2. Raven was leaked prematurely so people waited to purchase. (This was probably a good thing or this thread would be filled with "I just bought an S and now it's obsolete" posts).
3. The 75 was stopped, so only the higher priced versions were left.
4. Q1 is always a slow quarter for car sales.
It really was just the price of progress.

I think you are looking at this with one eye closed if you don’t recognise that Model S has had weaker customer demand in 2019 than previously. Elon even said on the last call that they’re trying to understand why that is.

 

[MC3OZ]

Clearly the photos show EM sitting in the back seat. What I can't make out is the hand gesture he is making. Is he giving a thumbs up or a middle finger. and holding up a sign in the other hand showing delivery numbers for Q3.....


case closed. move on.

Are you sure that isn't a whip in his right hand? [Hamster Drive confirmed]

 

[madodel]

oh god are people still banging on about seats at a race track... is this a big impact on the stock price?

Just trolls.

 

[2virgule5]

Both FC and Doggy make the Semi sound a relatively straightforward step up from Model 3 from a development perspective. And with an initial ramp that will necessarily be slow due to customer behaviour.

So why is it taking so long?

For one they need a lot of cells, which are probably not going to be Panasonic's but Tesla's own. They probably need it for the economics & performance characteristics. Maybe they'll use the 200KWh packs planned for the roadster (and model S plaid?) but it doesn't exists yet. We'll learn much more on Battery day.

The software side probably needs work as well as they want to integrate with all fleet tracking software out there, let alone calibrating Autopilot & Platooning for a very different setup than current cars (20 cameras...). I'd guess the focus is currently on getting feature-complete set for FSD for cars.

 

[2virgule5]

Reports of Autopilot asking people if they disengaged due to a fault or whether it was planned.

Tesla_saves_lives on Twitter

Crowd-sourced fault labeling It's unclear whether this is some sort of special developer mode thing or not.

I doubt that this is going to become a 'default' mode given you've just went manual so you don't need that distraction. I'd happily opt-in to improve the system though.

 

[jerry33]

Both FC and Doggy make the Semi sound a relatively straightforward step up from Model 3 from a development perspective. And with an initial ramp that will necessarily be slow due to customer behaviour.

So why is it taking so long?

Battery supply needs to ramp up.

 

[KarenRei]

Battery supply needs to ramp up.

This.

Batteries need to go where they make the most profit, and there simply aren't enough coming out of GF1 at this point.

 

[heltok]

Nice video of AEB saves:

 

[Singer3000]

This.

Batteries need to go where they make the most profit, and there simply aren't enough coming out of GF1 at this point.

Does it though really? The next step in the Semi programme is Tesla running their own fleet (not just a few test vehicles). It doesn’t need THAT many batteries to make a fleet of 100 semis.

 

[bhtooefr]

I made a reply, but it's stuck in the pending queue (probably because it includes pictures)? Maybe I should have just linked to the pictures.

Posts going into pending on Kinja is automatic unless the blog you're commenting on follows you (that is, you're an approved commenter).

I am an approved commenter, so I've gone ahead and both starred and replied to your post - I believe that kicks it out of pending approval.

BTW., Porsche PR apparently insists (but not on record ...) that they only stripped the Taycan interior of rear seats and interior to counter the mass increase of their roll cage.

But a roll cage isn't overly heavy, a fiber one is I think below 50 kg, and carbon-fiber roll cages exist as well:

Carbon Fibre Roll Cage - Anti Splinter Protected | Oakley Design​

Plus the Taycan is a small car so requires a smaller roll cage.

So what curb weight did the Porsche Taycan have on their 7:42 run, exactly? I presume Porsche used the car weight scales at the Nürburgring that racing officials are using. Why isn't Porsche disclosing the exact weight measurement the machine performed?

I've not really heard of CF (or fiberglass) roll cages being a thing for this kind of thing, I'd expect steel tubing to be honest.

 

[Reinhard]

Guns don't kill Teslas, people kill Teslas....

Euro logistics problems didn't affect the final numbers much in Q1. Things looked really bad on 3/20, but heroic last minute measures got most of the cars into buyers' hands. Tesla guided that Model 3 deliveries would be 10k less than production in Q1. They ended up with just over 12k. Some cars did spill over from Q1 into Q2, but that happens every quarter. The Q2->Q3 spill over was very similar.

The real problem with Q1 was the S/X collapse. They guided 21k and only delivered 12k. That wasn't logistics,

Model 3 cannibalizing Model S sales should not have been a surprise to Tesla. Model X sales decreasing too was a surprise to me (but again should not have been to Tesla/Elon).

I really hope we don't see the same pattern with 3 and Y. If they are projecting 150,000 Model 3s/year and expect 200,000 Model Ys/year, I hope they are not adding them up and expecting to sell 350,000/year. There will be significant cannibalizing of Model 3 from Model Y. I expect Model 3 sales to decrease significantly like S/X once Y become available.

 

[MC3OZ]

Does it though really? The next step in the Semi programme is Tesla running their own fleet (not just a few test vehicles). It doesn’t need THAT many batteries to make a fleet of 100 semis.

My guesses 600 kWh and 900 kWh that is 12 Model 3s or 18 Model 3s for a long range semi...

But they would only need to build 10 semis per month initially, displacing about 180 Model 3s...

So for this stage I don't think cells are the constraint... at least not the kind of cells going into Model 3s...

There will be reasons for the schedule.. at the latest we will know the schedule is on battery and drive-train investor day...

As a hunch, I think the Pickup will be built at the same location as the Semi, and I can see an opportunity to also produce a real hard-core off road people mover on the same platform as the pickup just replacing the bed with a bigger cabin.

 

[EVNow]

Guns don't kill Teslas, people kill Teslas....

Euro logistics problems didn't affect the final numbers much in Q1. Things looked really bad on 3/20, but heroic last minute measures got most of the cars into buyers' hands. Tesla guided that Model 3 deliveries would be 10k less than production in Q1. They ended up with just over 12k. Some cars did spill over from Q1 into Q2, but that happens every quarter. The Q2->Q3 spill over was very similar.

The real problem with Q1 was the S/X collapse. They guided 21k and only delivered 12k. That wasn't logistics,

Yes - there were multiple issues.

But there were a lot of logistic issues - otherwise they wouldn't have been forced to deliver 50% of cars in the last 15 days !

 

[MC3OZ]

Yes - there were multiple issues.

But there were a lot of logistic issues - otherwise they wouldn't have been forced to deliver 50% of cars in the last 15 days !

Yes, the model S/X line being down or running at a slower prate of production, is a logistics issue.

Q1 2019 is ancient history now...we will know how relevant it is until Q1 2020, comparing the results of those 2 quarters will provide a very good indicator of how things are progressing...

Solar installs, and car sales are odiously down Q1.. particularly in the US... but China GF may be producing cars Q1 2020...

 

[EVNow]

Model 3 cannibalizing Model S sales should not have been a surprise to Tesla. Model X sales decreasing too was a surprise to me (but again should not have been to Tesla/Elon).

It is not clear why the cannibalization happened in Q1 and not in Q3 or Q4, when there was significant 3 volume in US. It was a combination of pull forward because of tax credit decrease and cannibalization.

I really hope we don't see the same pattern with 3 and Y. If they are projecting 150,000 Model 3s/year and expect 200,000 Model Ys/year, I hope they are not adding them up and expecting to sell 350,000/year. There will be significant cannibalizing of Model 3 from Model Y. I expect Model 3 sales to decrease significantly like S/X once Y become available.

Again we don't know how this will work. Depends on Y volume ramp-up too (like I said above, no cannibalization in Q3/Q4 '18). I just hope they can easily change from 3 to Y, in terms of production product mix. This way they can deliver according to demand.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I don’t know. I think there will be others like us who just prefer the 3 over the Y. The 3 is IMHO just a better looking car. And it’s a high performance sports sedan. We will probably end up with a model Y someday because it’s just more practical for us. Easy egress ingress, Hatchback etc. We chose to order a Leaf Eplus SL instead of buying a model 3 for a number of reasons but our preference would still have been a model 3 if didn’t have so many difficulties getting in and out of the thing...and it was a hatchback...and had a heated steering wheel...and had a heat pump...and was quieter...and rear cross traffic alert...and 360 camera view...and homelink...and e-pedal etc. (Just kidding. We loved the model 3 and test drove it many times. I expect the model y will have most of these things). My point is I think there will still be lots of demand for the model 3. It’s a great looking car and doesn’t look near as boring as a model Y.

Jmho.