Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[trailhound]

View attachment 466079 Tesla Owners Online on Twitter

Model Y spotted. Seems they are being shipped out. Showroom models? Whatever, getting close now.

remember that one e-mail …

According to Bloomberg, Guillen told Tesla employees that while he couldn’t get into specifics about what the company has planned for its Fremont plant, “I know you will be delighted with the upcoming developments.”

Tesla: Car production boost, hiring in the works for Fremont

I think we all have been waiting for this to play out. Wow ---if they are ahead of schedule on Model Y.

 

[sparcs]

Maybe, but then why the same color and zero camouflage, not even a tarp or closed truck? Does Tesla have a Q1 demand death wish?

yeah, but i'm not ready. I just put in a preorder three weeks ago

 

[ggr]

First off, I think you seem to have a misconception on hand: that the reaction to a quarterly report should be based on whether it's good or bad news. That's not how it works. The reaction to any news is (at least in theory) based on whether it's worse or better than what people already expect. Now, that's theory at least, and reality can differ. But, at least in theory, if bad news is expected, it should already be factored in. Your investment choices should be relative to how much better or worse you think it's going to be than what's expected.

This is a great explanation, thanks. The way I like to think of it is by analogy to position/speed/acceleration/jerk. Where the company is now (it's balance sheet) is like where your car is at the moment. The first derivative, the actual profit or cash flow is like the speed of the car, speeding down the freeway or maybe reversing into the driveway (if you're GM). The second derivative, the difference between market expectation and what actually happens, is like the acceleration of the car. Lastly, familiar to all Tesla drivers, is the third derivative, commonly known as "jerk"... rate of change of acceleration. That's when Tesla suddenly reveals that GF4 is halfway built in some hills outside Munich. (BTW I just made that last bit up. But if you were around, you'll remember that GF1 was well underway while people were still wondering which state would win.)

 

[Fact Checking]

remember that one e-mail …

According to Bloomberg, Guillen told Tesla employees that while he couldn’t get into specifics about what the company has planned for its Fremont plant, “I know you will be delighted with the upcoming developments.”

Tesla: Car production boost, hiring in the works for Fremont

I think we all have been waiting for this to play out. Wow ---if they are ahead of schedule on Model Y.

If Tesla managed to slip this in under the radar, 9-12 months ahead of schedule, with zero leaks, then I'll be very impressed.

Still skeptical though: current guidance for Model Y production is Q3 next year.

My guess: crash test prototype units?

 

[HG Wells]

Maybe, but then why the "best", most visible Multi-Coat Red color and zero camouflage, not even a tarp or closed truck? Does Tesla have a Q1 demand death wish?

Perhaps that's why Elon said Q1 would be terrible.

 

[HG Wells]

If Tesla managed to slip this in under the radar, 9-12 months ahead of schedule, with zero leaks, then I'll be very impressed.

Still skeptical though: current guidance for Model Y production is Q3 next year.

I'm sure their was a leak, we all heard a rumor two or three months ago. Just nobody believed it. I still don't.
But I can hope !

 

[Fact Checking]

First off, I think you seem to have a misconception on hand: that the reaction to a quarterly report should be based on whether it's good or bad news. That's not how it works. The reaction to any news is (at least in theory) based on whether it's worse or better than what people already expect. Now, that's theory at least, and reality can differ. But, at least in theory, if bad news is expected, it should already be factored in. Your investment choices should be relative to how much better or worse you think it's going to be than what's expected.

Also note that the price reaction is relative to investors' true expectations, not their externally communicated expectations which are often false.

For example "Wall Street expectations" for Q3 deliveries were 98,000, which Tesla technically "missed" by just 1,000 units - but if many analysts entered artificially high estimates into FactSet to manufacture a "miss", then this necessarily means that their (and the banks/funds they are working for and their biggest clients with which they probably shared their real expectations with) probably had much lower real expectations - so for them Tesla's Q3 results were a "beat", after which they'd be buying.

Also, the TSLAQ scammers and their allies were short ~36 million shares on September 30, and record deliveries were a negative surprise for them: prominent TSLAQ members expected 70k-85k deliveries, and I'm sure they were positioned accordingly.

I'm not saying this is the only factor - and sentiment might still change for the worse on October 23 after the Q3 ER - but I agree that 97k deliveries is a significant factor in the current bullish sentiment.

 

[ggr]

Oh god! someone please write a Trump translator. I love the way he talks.

Oh my. You reminded me of the early days of Usenet, there was a program someone wrote called "valspeak", and you could run any text through it to translate it into San Fernando teenage girl speak. So I googled it and found Fun Translations which has lots (I didn't count). Didn't see one for Trumpspeak. Someone needs to do that. They have an API.

It doesn't seem to do as good a job as the 1980's original.

 

[ggr]

The problem is that you can't really forecast growth accurately many years into the future. At least I can't! If we were to just slap a multiple on last twelve months revenues, Tesla would obviously be overvalued. If we instead apply a multiple assuming Tesla grows 50% a year for the next 10 years, Tesla would obviously be one of the most undervalued companies on the market.

Like they did for the last ten years?

 

[HG Wells]

Go for the original.'

MOON UNIT ZAPPA.

Fellow Space Cadets !

 

[Krugerrand]

Full stop right now on this Model Y production talk. It’s absurd.

 

[ggr]

They were buying below $200 - well deserved profit taking and a bit of pre-ER deleveraging?

By their own rules, they have to rebalance if they get too heavy in any one stock. Since TSLA is their largest holding they almost always have to buy when it goes down and sell when it goes up.

 

[SOULPEDL]

There is no shortage of theoretical employment for people. Even the boring company could employ tens or hundreds of thousands of people globally. I would LOVE there to be high -speed direct underground tunnels all over the UK, whisking me from city to city at ten times the speed I can currently get around.
Everybody used to be employed getting food, and shelter. Then we needed fewer people to do those, so we started making new products like clothes, then eventually computers, even laptops, even Mobile Phones!
I dont know what will be next, but id be amazed if there is...nothing.

... like controlling things with your feet - and that's what I do already today with SoulPedal®, imagine what today's inventions will soon do.
(I couldn't resist, it's just that cool.)

 

[ZsoZso]

I'm not sure if this info was posted (I try to follow this thread but it moves so fast...).
It is from September auto-insurance policy registrations for EVs in China:

What is interesting is that apart from the Tesla models, the others are various Chinese made EVs that are all lower priced than Tesla Model 3, so it is interesting to see such dominance of the Model 3.

 

[Pezpunk]

Full stop right now on this Model Y production talk. It’s absurd.

PLEASE. We bulls are our own worst enemy, letting our expectations exceed Tesla’s own timelines and guidance. Given their history, it is a miracle when they MEET their own hyper-aggressive guidance. Can we PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE stop doing the shorts’ work for them by moving up Tesla’s own extremely optimistic timelines? I am begging you guys. Again.

 

[Curt Renz]

Japan Times - tomorrow (their time): Renewables overtake hydrocarbons in U.K. electricity generation: study | The Japan Times

 

[anthonyj]

View attachment 466079 Tesla Owners Online on Twitter

Model Y spotted. Seems they are being shipped out. Showroom models? Whatever, getting close now.

FakeX CGI team doing a great job pumping the stock today

 

[davepsilon]

I'm short based on fundamentals, but the basic premise is nothing you haven't already heard a hundred times. If I have anything interesting to offer I'll post an idea, but again I'm not here to push my (not very original) point of view.

I think it'd be worthwhile to set out your evaluation with a little more detail. For instance what timeline are you using to evaluate fundamentals? Does it depend on any particular numbers? Have any recent trends been consistent (or inconsistent) with your thesis?

If you are considering a timeline of at least several years I certainly see some paths for Tesla where future investor value is less than it is now. Other paths where it is similarly valued. And still others where it is much larger. Assuming you have a long term short thesis what range of outcomes and associated probabilities have you settled on?

 

[MC3OZ]

Could that allow different energy output and duration for different cells to optimize long term
Performance? Would lots of small cells give you faster acceleration but larger cells provide longer duration power?

I'm not 100% sure they need larger diameter cells to use Maxwell DBE, it is just an option if they do need it...

IMO DBE is likely to feature in the new Plaid Model S/X & Roadster...

Lots of small cells may give them the option to make modules for existing packs on Model 3/Y, and perhaps for energy storage.

They will want to use DBE, and have a larger pack with good energy density....

Previously 18650 allowed faster acceleration than 2170... but that was probably at around the same energy density...

Or maybe the first iteration of this new process will not even use DBE...

This is just speculation and it is hard to guess right... it just seemed to me that sentence was significant.

 

[elasalle]

ARK Invest's ETFs ARKQ, ARKK, and ARKW are selling TSLA again. For context, here are today's ARK trades:

View attachment 466028

As ARK sells into strength to take profit. They will have $$ to buy any future dip well played ....