the chanos thing is unsubstantiated, yet some of you are commenting as if it’s real. facts or opinions fine...rumors portrayed as fact, please don’t here
still hope he lost everything
still hope he lost everything
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Swampgator
Active Member
No, a. is the best answer. I actually look forward to seeing him on CNBC explaining why he had to cover.
I have a lot of trouble believing that the leak rate for power plants is anywhere near 2,9%. Perhaps for home distribution you might get a couple percent (I have no trouble believing that!), but NG power plants involve dramatically simpler distribution systems, much more controlled circumstances than hundreds of millions of homes withpipes in various states of disrepair snaking through walls and floors, and people with their pilot lights out spewing gas, people leaking gas as they fire up their stoves, etc etc.
I'll need to dig through some of the papers when I get a chance, to see what they actually say. But I seriously, seriously doubt any meaningful fraction of the leaks come from peakers and the distribution infrastructure leading up to them.
Furthermore, let's just pretend it's true. Let's pretend that peaker warming impact is literally doubled. So? Peaker warming impact is almost nothing compared to other sources. Almost nothing times 2... let's see.... multiply by the nothing... carry the nothing...
Your article (from "Thenarwhal.ca") doesn't load for me, but from the title, it does not sound like it's about peakers. Coal isn't being replaced by peakers, it's being replaced by combined cycle baseload NG plants.
And I'll reiterate: they can't "go" because we literally do not currently have a realistic, cost-effective system to replace them in terms of backup power for multi-day geographically-broad wind-solar lulls, which legitimately do occur far too statistically commonly to ignore. Maybe some day we will, but that day is not today.
Try pricing amortizing, say, 5 days of storage. Tesla's large projects are $350/kWh installed. That's $42k/kW/5d. Amorized over the 15-year lifespan at 5% interest, $332/mo/kW. Do you find that acceptable? And we're only talking a 5-day lull. Bad weather patterns can lock in longer than that. The worst case is a major volcanic eruption, which can dim the whole globe dramatically for many months on end. Laki's last eruption for example froze the Mississippi at New Orleans. Writers wrote of burning-glasses (magnifyng glasses for starting fires) being unable to ignite dry brush.
But that's an extreme case. Simple lulls, however, are not.
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Agreed. Google "Chanos covers TSLA" and the top posts are from TMC circa 2018. I'm not expecting this to be real. Though if it ends up being true I won't complain.
I wish I could share your optimism.
Remember, there are developments on both sides. The Saudi Aramco IPO is about to put one to two trillion dollars in the hands of an autocratic sociopath in the Middle East no less (What could possibly go wrong with that?
). Strategies will shift, but the war will continue for some time.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
anthonyj
Stonks
Chanos thing is fake news. Still shooting for $700 by end of week though.
jhm
Well-Known Member
So if Chanos has lost $175M on shorting Tesla, I wonder if he will be subject to lawsuits from his investors. What's his liability for deceptive and factually inaccurate statements to public and his clients?
RFernatt
Solar/EV Owner/Enthusiast
Keeping with the Mordor theme today:
The battle for Helms Deep is over, the battle for Middle Earth is just beginning.
The fossil fuel ring hasn't been destroyed yet even it moves closer to Mt Doom every day.
@KarenRei You raise good points but the fight always starts in the margins. The fewer peaker plants running the better. If displaced by batteries and renewables..better. That in turn puts pressure on the remaining infrastructure. Just as with cars, did the car world do more than yawn at Roadster v1..nope, they ignored it; you start at the margins and the fight is not this year or next year but my childrens years. So we start now and yes, it is exciting to see it starting. It seems that by 2030 the combined cycle plants won't be competitive vs new renewables. Which has nothing to do with today's investment except in the most grand way of thinking about it or a long term investor willing to sit for 10 years or more.
Today every estimate of efficiency and market gains by renewables has been woefully short. Good for the world and Tesla share holders.
Today every estimate of efficiency and market gains by renewables has been woefully short. Good for the world and Tesla share holders.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tesla's instantiation of an AC induction motor can not be 'idled': it has no clutch. The machinery is always turning.
Even at constant speed on a flat road, there is always a requirement for the motor to provide torque. That's how they overcome tire resistance. Otherwise, the 'idled' motor leaves the rolling resistance of its tires to be dragged along by the other powered axle.
Its more efficient to drive the motor just hard enough to overcome that friction. The way Tesla minimizes losses is to 'torque sleep' the AC motors. SRPM motors are never idled either, just controlled intelligently.
So your 'problem' is not an issue for Tesla, because they're smart like that.
Cheers!
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Oh I doubt much of that will be anything but Saudi money being moved from super wealthy back to the state. No one is buying at that valuation. The Roadshow is canceled in many places, it is marketed mostly at home. It just moves it from state to privatish ownership. Shifting the bank accounts around so to speak. It was needed because Saudi Arabia is in some cash flow trouble.I wish I could share your optimism.
Remember, there are developments on both sides. The Saudi Aramco IPO is about to put one to two trillion dollars in the hands of an autocratic sociopath in the Middle East no less (What could possibly go wrong with that?
Strategies will shift, but the war will continue for some time.
Krugerrand
Meow
Meh. What’s good for the short is good for the long. We’ve been screwed over so many times by rumors, unsubstantiated claims and outright lies. I say we run with the rumor.
Hope you're working on it. Maybe start a Einhorn covered rumor for compounding effect.
SoGA Fan Club
Member
Agreed. Google "Chanos covers TSLA" and the top posts are from TMC circa 2018. I'm not expecting this to be real. Though if it ends up being true I won't complain.
Those were just people ASKING since the Q3 earnings were so good.
No worries, TeslaChart is the new leader who shorts BABA and Tesla at the same time.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
He just negotiated a big beautiful new trade deal with Mexico that Nancy Pelosi is inclined to pass this year.
If he slaps tariffs on Mexican cars that is admission he negotiated an extremely bad deal.
Never admitting fault and never apologizing is integral to his brand.
Swampgator
Active Member
You need to get extra points for the use of that word! Brilliant.
Still, you are debating semantics. The induction motors combined with the SRPM machines are more efficient than 2 PM or 2 SRPM machines combined. Full stop.
anthonyj
Stonks
I don’t want Einhorn to cover. I want him to keep trapping dummies. Darwin’s law or something
TeslaCharts is actually a social experiment. He isn’t what you think he is. He’s just rounding up the dipshits for the Put slaughterfest
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
SRPMs are 90% efficient over a wide rpm range. AC motors peak at 82% over a relatively narrow range. That's why Model 3 LR had a single SRPM and not a single AC motor.
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