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The only figure I could quickly find was from a few years ago (2016 in Canada) mentioned one out of twenty sold had an eight foot bed. My guess is that the ratio of eight foot bed trucks is smaller now.

I wonder how much of that low percentage is due to costs and how much due to the vehicle just getting even more unwieldy large.

The Cybertruck fits the "same" functionality into a bit less space - I believe it's about a foot shorter than an equivalent configuration (4 door 6.5' bed). The Cybertruck is ~232" long, versus the F150 configuration being about ~244". If you add on the extra 18" to get an 8 foot bed, the Cybertruck is ~250" versus ~262". This makes the hypothetical 8' bed Cybertruck only about 6" longer than the F150 with 4 doors and 6'5" bed.

Not everyone wants even a 4-door truck, as that's pretty long to begin with, so starting "small" is the better approach (and it's possible that the design wouldn't work as well with a 2-door as the top of the triangle might be in the wrong place for headroom / volume purposes). But it would be interesting to see how many 8' beds they could sell since they'd only be half a foot longer than the 6.5' F150 ...
With their steel folding production method many such variations can probably be implemented in software...

As @KarenRei correctly pointed it out stainless steel isn't for every vehicle form factor - but for those where it is an advantage (trucks, vans, taxis, minibuses) the flexibility will be amazing, as long as a number of physical constraints are maintained:
  • Triangular top - this is a main load bearing structure and also air flow tapering requires shallow angles at the top.
  • Nose to top angle has to be below a certain limit - which defines a minimum length for the vehicle: not enough internal cabin height otherwise.
  • Simple styling: anything that doesn't fit into the Origami XY design style is out.
  • All around skin: load has to be distributed and stiffness maintained.
I'm curious whether they'll try smaller and larger stainless steel vehicles. The stainless steel ATV is I think a silent suggestion that they might.
I wouldn't obsess too much over only triangles being allowed. I don't see why they couldn't build what are essentially trusses to get variations that are not just a single triangle.

Very interesting, Tesla will be making their own stainless steel:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"We’re creating this alloy at Tesla. Not a problem to create a lot of it, but we’ll need to come up with new body manufacturing methods, as it can’t be made using standard methods."​

So after SpaceX foundry there's going to be a Tesla foundry too!

Might explain some of the CoGs reduction @KarenRei and @ReflexFunds were arguing about?

They'd avoid steel tariffs as well.
I'd be surprised if they built two separate foundries to make the "same" product. More likely that one of them (or a wholly owned subsidiary) builds one foundry, and then supplies the other(s).
They should just expand the SpaceX foundry to be large enough for both.

Cybertruck using "SpaceX steel" would be a huge selling point.
Tesla will likely use the product at a much higher rate than SpaceX, so it makes sense for Tesla to be the one that owns and operates it, and sells the a small portion of the product to SpaceX. The existing SpaceX foundry likely isn't capable of anything near the volumes needed for even Starship, much less Cybertruck. It's for small batch custom castings and such, not massive quantities of steel.
I don't get how the front and rear crush zones will work. I think this design is the equivalent of the first solar roof.

The vehicle shown isn't even legal and didn't even have cameras or side marker lighting. I doubt that the bed cover shown is waterproofing. The ramp was obviously not complete and would be problematic in a production vehicle.

I do think that Tesla can do well selling this sort of design. But what I saw is a "concept car". I think the primary purpose was to generate excitement and to accumulate unsatisfied demand. I do think Tesla will make the vehicle if they can, but they don't know if it is possible.
Crush zones can probably be done by having the back side of the body have pre-made cuts in them that go to a partial depth, creating areas that will fold in a specific pattern.
The half-hexagon wheel wells are literally the simplest possible, still functional planar approximation of a half-circle.

~90% of the Cybertuck is defined by function, not form - in a brilliant minimalist design.
I have wondered if the hexagonal wheel wells are just stylistic to match the rest of the truck and they are just cut out or if they actually folded the material inwards. If they're just stylistic, nothing says they can't then cut them round. Of course they could also just use round plastic fender flares to hide the hexagonal opening too, if they wanted.
 
You can't compare this to 450k reservations for Model 3 which was $1000 a piece. The commitment to go through to a full purchase of a vehicle that will cost close to $50K will be much less for $100 reservations.

This 187k reservations should be considered as an expression of interest. I am guessing around 15% conversion rate - which is still a huge number of buyers

Speak for yourself. I’m just as serious about purchasing CYBRTRK as I was Model 3. I don’t give a crap about the deposit amount. I’ve also given Tesla $2,500 for a Y and as it stands there’s a slight possibility I won’t get the vehicle I put the largest deposit down on.

Stop thinking you know what other people intend to do based on your own reality.
 
One question we need to ask is. Will this be another bet the farm type of ramp up. Will current cash flow be able to support another Model 3 type of mass orders? Hopefully some of you analyst types will finish modelling the cost in the near future. I am still recovering from PTSD I suffered from Model 3 bet the farm ramp.

I was thinking that the reservation number may encourage EM to push the truck production forward like he did with the 3. I would welcome it, but it could put more stress on the company. I'd imagine with the 3 and Y cranking out there would be no cause for concern, but if the truck production is accelerated things could get interesting again.
 
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Is it possible, even remotely, that Tesla might consider GF2 in Buffalo as the place to build Cybertruck?

No paint shop needed, lots of parts and equipment not needed, limited quantities per month, huge PR win for employment in the area...

Curious if Buffalo could work.

No point shipping all the battery packs to Buffalo and then back all over US. California will likely still be the largest market for the cybertruck.

They will be made at GF1 and then sent by rail mostly and some by truck.
 
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Just tapering the wrap in front of the rear wheel well makes the truck very athletic. I know they photoshopped the whole bottom of the truck too. Looks kind of like a cheetah. I hope wall street finally prices in meme value tomorrow.

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I really don't think there's a difference between 100 and 1000 as a reservation cost for the people they are targeting. What matters for the reservation is that it is a marketing and sales tool. You get a list of high quality names that you later get to have your sales people to call and actually sell the cars to. Higher reservation cost might have a better use for higher dollar vehicles as you want to weed out frivolous buyers who bail at the last minute which makes your financial balance sheet a pain to manage.

Also since it is refundable, the $$$ amount really doesn't matter.

Exactly this! The $100 reservation could be viewed as a way for Tesla to put out a qualifier of interest for potential buyers. Instead of paying for google ads or Facebook ads or whatever to acquire names and email addresses of potentially interested people, Tesla now gets “paid” in the sense that they get to hold the money as an unearned revenue until delivery PLUS they get some useful estimates of the geographic distribution of demand and the size of demand so they can calibrate their supply chain and better budget capital investment for equipment.

It’s similar to how they’re getting people to pay them upfront for full self driving while also collecting useful training information from those same drivers to create full self driving that they paid for. Meanwhile other companies pay in some form or the other to obtain the same data that people gladly pay money to give to Tesla for free.
 
2-3% recovery on Monday likely? -6% is such an overreaction to an unusual pickup truck, which was A) described as such beforehand and B) will probably prove to be extremely popular

I'll add one more:

C) not material to profits for at least 2 years.

Yes, the market over-reacted. But I believe this was largely due to the dry powder short-sellers and TSLA detractors built up in anticipation of using it after the reveal to let the world know they disapprove of Tesla. It would be extremely bullish if TSLA rises Monday. However, it wouldn't surprise me if those who started this attack try to keep it going for another day or three. Only time will tell how much ammo they have left. Soon enough it will shake this off and reach new highs.
 
I Keep picturing the rusted stainless steel grills I see at the beach (salt air) and wonder if that’s just an issue with a lower quality SS?

No, not "lower quality" per se. Stainless steel has many attributes and varying levels of corrosion resistance is only one of them. Some applications benefit from the alloys exhibiting less corrosion resistance due to other properties that make them more suitable (easier welding, more rigidity, etc.). That said, the alloys that have higher corrosion resistance do generally cost more since they are generally alloyed with higher percentages of more expensive metals. Since BBQ grills are typically low tech and buyers are typically price sensitive, the decision to use an alloy with lower corrosion resistance is probably based primarily on cost.
 
You can't compare this to 450k reservations for Model 3 which was $1000 a piece. The commitment to go through to a full purchase of a vehicle that will cost close to $50K will be much less for $100 reservations.

This 187k reservations should be considered as an expression of interest. I am guessing around 15% conversion rate - which is still a huge number of buyers

You can't compare them because the Cybertruck is really North American (and Australia) only (it's way too large for most other places), whereas the Model 3 is appropriate for all countries. I'd guess the conversion rate will be 70% or 75%.

I expect somewhere in between, 30%-60%.

Outside of urban cores ( like the US), I think full size American trucks can fit in China and South Korea too. The problem has been fuel cost. The Audi A8L is a big seller in China and Mercedes S Class a big seller in South Korea.

Norway,Sweden,Finland, and Iceland are also possibilities.

(Have to get last few comments in before 12:00 AM Monday Pacific Standard Time :cool: )
 
A word to the wise, before the hammer drops on Cybertruck talk:

Cybertruck is a platform not only in the automotive sense of the word, but also in the technology sense of the word.

The hardware and software ecosystem it has the potential to spawn makes the traditional automotive aftermarket seem like a quaint backwater.
 
Very interesting, Tesla will be making their own stainless steel:

Elon Musk on Twitter

"We’re creating this alloy at Tesla. Not a problem to create a lot of it, but we’ll need to come up with new body manufacturing methods, as it can’t be made using standard methods."​

So after SpaceX foundry there's going to be a Tesla foundry too!

Might explain some of the CoGs reduction @KarenRei and @ReflexFunds were arguing about?

They'd avoid steel tariffs as well.

I love the synergy between firms within the Musk keiretsu, e.g. SpaceX creates the alloy, Tesla creates volume.