Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

In large parts of the world (Europe comes to mind), exceeding a 3500 kg weight rating puts the vehicle into a class requiring special driver licensing... and I would be extremely surprised if the Cybertruck fits within that rating

I doubt Cybrtrck is going to be 1 ton heavier than Model X.

For sure RWD Cybertruck.

 

[printf42]

I was thinking that the reservation number may encourage EM to push the truck production forward like he did with the 3. I would welcome it, but it could put more stress on the company. I'd imagine with the 3 and Y cranking out there would be no cause for concern, but if the truck production is accelerated things could get interesting again.

I won’t worry a bit if they decide to pull it forward.
First they have the free cash flow to do it.
Second, all analysis indicates that the truck doesn’t need a hydraulic press, with much less welding, and no need for paint shop.
That leaves the entire factory to mostly just a GA line, which could be a TENT.
I guess the initial ramp of Truck production would be very very capital efficient.

 

[mongo]

I doubt Cybrtrck is going to be 1 ton heavier than Model X.

For sure RWD Cybertruck.

Is that gross or curb weight though? 3,500 lb payload vs 1,400lb for the X, and the X is over 6k gross, plus pickup tri motor has bigger pack.

 

[StealthP3D]

I agree with your analysis, with only one question remaining in my mind. Tesla's Cybertruck web pages feature a photo of what appears to be towing a futuristic work trailer. Tesla's unibody structure must have been engineered to some degree to facilitate the planned ability to pull such a load. Towing forces aren't just 'can it pull it forward', but also must address the stopping, lateral wind, and uneven road surface torque dynamics. The rated towing capacity of 7500# seems to address this as well.

It takes time to change ingrained dogma even when that dogma is false. For decades people have been told by "authorities" on towing that a body on frame vehicle is better for towing heavy loads. They say this even though a body on frame vehicle is not as torsionally rigid as a unibody vehicle capable of handling the same amount of weight.

This dogma probably developed because the first unibody vehicles were very light vehicles and were not designed to tow heavy loads. This re-inforced their incorrect beliefs. The more rigid structure of a unibody is actually very beneficial to positive trailer control. Of course, the unibody structure has to be engineered and built to handle those loads without deforming enough to cause issues with doors closing, windshields cracking, etc. But the extra rigidity does offer superior control of heavy trailers. A twin I-beam suspension may be strong but it acts like a big spring that can turn mild trailer sway into a dangerous event that causes many towing accidents on a regular basis. Twin box beams improved the situation and lightened the frame for a given amount of rigidity, but did not solve it. And the harder you try to solve it using twin beams, the heavier the truck becomes while still not solving the problem until the truck is so heavy it's impractical for other reasons.

I'm convinced the Cybertruck will be able to pull heavy loads with more authority and less sway potential than any existing truck in its class.

 

[RobStark]

I really don't think there's a difference between 100 and 1000 as a reservation cost for the people they are targeting.

But people they are not targeting will also make reservations.

Like the college senior who thinks he will be making $200k/year within 3 years.

 

[StealthP3D]

In principle, a Tesla capable of 500 kW charging could do so by using two v3 Supercharger stalls at the same time - using two stalls for half the time would not make much difference to other users.

So a charge port on both the left and right rear flanks of new Tesla vehicles? I like it!

 

[RobStark]

One question we need to ask is. Will this be another bet the farm type of ramp up. Will current cash flow be able to support another Model 3 type of mass orders? Hopefully some of you analyst types will finish modelling the cost in the near future. I am still recovering from PTSD I suffered from Model 3 bet the farm ramp.

Elon said multiple times that Cybrtrk is not a bet the company product.

 

[RobStark]

I don’t think 4 extra flat lines at 0 would add much.

If ~2.5M sales per year equals four flat lines then that metric is rather meaningless.

 

[Yonki]

For reasonably high energy rounds you could put an energy absorption / catch layer on the inside; the stainless, even if it can't catch a round on its own, will surely deform it / send it spinning, unless you're talking very high energy rounds. Ceramic is ideal for this role, but as far as metals go, hardened 301 stainless is certainly up there.

That does it - I'm starting a world-class, for-profit, professional trivia competition team with you and @fact-checking. As long as neither of you ever listen to me, we'll be printing tri-motor Cybertruck (w/ATV) money day and night!

 

[RobStark]

Is that gross or curb weight though? 3,500 lb payload vs 1,400lb for the X, and the X is over 6k gross, plus pickup tri motor has bigger pack.

I am not familiar with EU regulations. I was assuming curb weight since original poster didn't specify GVWR.

 

[AudubonB]

Aero apparently not too bad on this View attachment 481059

Put in those rear window scoops...dams....anyway, "insets" into your* model and see how the results change. Those and the wheel wells were for me the aerodynamically most appalling** feature of what we were shown at the reveal.

* Not yours? Then carry that message if you can - thanks.
** And if those remain the most appalling, then the vehicle's overall shape is pretty wonderful, indeed.

Aaah - 2h12m remain of discussion regarding truck shape, horse power, stainless grade, computer triangle renditions...other non-financial/DIRECTLY market-related discussion. After that, ALL go to some other thread.

Zero mercy. No reason to have Mods move stuff when it's much easier to Delete.


~Vetinari

 

[MichaelP90DL]

The stock markets open soon. How will Wall Street react to Tesla having some 200,000 reservations for Cybertruck?

 

[KSilver2000]

Also since it is refundable, the $$$ amount really doesn't matter.

Exactly this.
At $100, it’s cheaper than any other Tesla vehicle debut reservation deposit amount IIRC. Plus, it’s fully refundable. I would not be surprised if many reservations are from tire kickers who end up canceling when it comes time to actually give up the money. Heck, one can reserve almost 4 trucks for just the price of one TSLA share.

I am curious why Tesla/Elon decides to disclose reservation numbers for the truck but not the Y.

 

[MXWing]

The stock markets open soon. How will Wall Street react to Tesla having some 200,000 reservations for Cybertruck?

Hope positively but doesn't matter. This is a still a side show compared to
GF3
Model 3 demand
Model Y production

If I was a short with deep pockets I would short right at the open to maintain FUD velocity from Friday.

If it goes up, great. If it goes down add to position,

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Exactly this.
At $100, it’s cheaper than any other Tesla vehicle debut reservation deposit amount IIRC. Plus, it’s fully refundable. I would not be surprised if many reservations are from tire kickers who end up canceling when it comes time to actually give up the money. Heck, one can reserve almost 4 trucks for just the price of one TSLA share.

I am curious why Tesla/Elon decides to disclose reservation numbers for the truck but not the Y.

On the other hand, it’s the exact same amount(and method) as the two most recent product launches they’ve done: the solar rental(and switchover of the Solar purchase to that system) and the v3 solar roof.

 

[MXWing]

Exactly this.
At $100, it’s cheaper than any other Tesla vehicle debut reservation deposit amount IIRC. Plus, it’s fully refundable. I would not be surprised if many reservations are from tire kickers who end up canceling when it comes time to actually give up the money. Heck, one can reserve almost 4 trucks for just the price of one TSLA share.

I am curious why Tesla/Elon decides to disclose reservation numbers for the truck but not the Y.

It's WRONG to push the "oh its cheap" narrative.

I don't know about you and everyone else but I don't have enough $100s to throw at every single kickstarter I think is ugly and will never sell.

I got better things to do with my time than that.

Who else wants to try to draw a car on paper, produce a prototype and raise 20 mil (refundable) from it?

 

[AudubonB]

MODERATOR -

As the spirited, understandable, and sometimes informative discussion, jokes....and jabber...of the Cybertruck winds down in this Investor thread, all are reminded that henceforth discussion of same is welcome to be continued in the "CyberTruck" thread - which will continue, for the nonce, as an easily-located Sticky:

ALL CyberTruck discussion

 

[Sancho]

In the epic Story of Elon Musk, the Cybertruck is just another unforgettable chapter.

Now quiet down kids, storytime ain’t over.

 

[kengchang]

It's WRONG to push the "oh its cheap" narrative.

I don't know about you and everyone else but I don't have enough $100s to throw at every single kickstarter I think is ugly and will never sell.

I got better things to do with my time than that.

Who else wants to try to draw a car on paper, produce a prototype and raise 20 mil (refundable) from it?

Exactly, why would someone put down $100 into something that you are not interested in?

 

[tinm]

Frankfurt exchange opens in ~24 minutes. Should provide a good glimpse into how TSLA will fare on NASDAQ Monday morning.

Pre-market Frankfurt asking price ~$337US.