Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SW2Fiddler]

Yes, and some fairly minor damage can total a vehicle. Has to be really major to affect the pack.

On the other electrode, no one has to race or out-bid home energy storage hobbyists to obtain used gasohol engines. Model 3 reclaimed modules are an in-demand commodity (but coming down in price now as the supply of totaled M3s “ramps” up). For a car transplant you will obviously want an entire Pack With Penthouse. Home energy storage wants a stack of those “5-foot long Pez sticks” called modules, plus a little bit of smarts (aftermarket BMS which Jack and others will be perfecting).

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

What you're missing is that they don't have a better detection system. They have less injury when the pedestrian gets hit (green column). None of those come even close to the 94% of the Tesla's detection system (purple column) score (see a few posts above which actually shows the Tesla data), which isn't shown in the graph you've posted, so the Tesla doesn't hit the pedestrian in the first place.

I wish they would give a very detailed explanation of each category. This is all I could find with a quick search.

• Pedestrian Protection which has been expanded to include cyclists and is now known as Vulnerable Road User (VRU) protection [green column]
  
  
• Safety Assist, which evaluated driver-assistance and crash-avoidance technologies [purple column]

Based on these descriptions, the purple column is only when they tested with others cars - the ability to stop for a stopped or slowed car (see the video someone posted that shows this), as well as features like lane-keep. The green column is basically the same type of tests (recognition and avoidance, but with pedestrians instead of cars). It looks like Tesla can identify cars and large objects (and avoid crashes) very well, but does not do a good job at all of detecting pedestrians. And if it doesn't detect the pedestrian, it surely can't stop for them, so that nullifies your argument.

 

[jerry33]

Based on these descriptions, the purple column is only when they tested with others cars - the ability to stop for a stopped or slowed car (see the video someone posted that shows this), as well as features like lane-keep. The green column is basically the same type of tests (recognition and avoidance, but with pedestrians instead of cars). It looks like Tesla can identify cars and large objects (and avoid crashes) very well, but does not do a good job at all of detecting pedestrians. And if it doesn't detect the pedestrian, it surely can't stop for them, so that nullifies your argument.

Did you not watch the video posted earlier where it was detecting pedestrians and cyclists? Do you ever post anything positive?

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

TBH does ANYBODY buy a car based on how safe it is for the pedestrian you hit? I like to think I'm a nice guy, but give me a button that makes my car 1% safer for ME, and 2% more dangerous to anybody I hit, and I'm mashing that button real hard.

I think the discussion here is about investing - so many of us are investing in TSLA due to the incredible value of FSD and the robotaxi fleet. And this test result does not shine positively on that portion of our investment.

If we were only talking about the safety of Tesla's cars, then as investors, we'd be discussing Tesla as a car company, and not a technology company. Viewed ONLY as a car company, Tesla is worth far less.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Rating by Citigroup, maintained Sell by this guy Itai Michaeli.

View attachment 484558

Wow, this guy's a downright stock market genius isn't he? LOL!

Dan

 

[Krugerrand]

Elon's comment in the trial today about there being "not much" of a Tesla PR team is notable not only because it's a very public slam against a group of his own employees...

Or, and what he most likely meant was simply that they have very few people tasked with PR responsibility. Resources have been better spent other places.

Elon doesn’t bother publicly ‘slamming’ groups of employees. Never have I seen him do it in print or interview. He just quietly fires people and we get to sometimes hear about departures in ER calls, but usually by some reporter digging through Linked In.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Fun fact: "itai" (痛い) means "it hurts" / "ouch!" in Japanese.

Wait I thought we weren't supposed to talk about Unsworth and shoving a sub up someone's a** in this thread.

Dan

 

[green48]

It doesn't say "navigation by Google". In fact Tesla doesn't use Google for navigation, they use their own maps and routing engine.

However they do use Google to display a map/satellite background. We have no idea how much they pay for the map/sattelite display...

Thanks for clarifying. Driving a Tesla has made me realize I never want a car that *doesn't* have a map interface on display. If all other automakers come to the same conclusion (eventually), we could have a world with 250+ million full screen mapping/navigation systems in cars.

With that kind of volume as a possibility, is Tesla trying to roll their own navigation/map interface? It seems like that could be a very lucrative move if they developed a plug and play mapping system that removed the need for Google's map display.

I know Tesla has a lot on their plate already, but this struck me as a "must-have" feature, and one that would be difficult for many companies to acquire enough data to produce.

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla can identify cars and large objects (and avoid crashes) very well, but does not do a good job at all of detecting pedestrians.

Why are people randomly speculating when you can go straight to the NCAP pages for the Model 3 and Model X and see precisely what they lost points for?

AEB for pedestrians in Model X was 11,6 out of 12 points. 96,7%. You call that "not doing a good job"?

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Did you not watch the video posted earlier where it was detecting pedestrians and cyclists? Do you ever post anything positive?

As an FYI - yes, I mostly make positive posts as evidenced by my profile - 1487 positive ratings, 439 negative. You could have easily checked that yourself. Some people, like you, like to click Disagree when they don't LIKE the information presented - not that they believe or have evidence that it is wrong.

I am not here, as the TSLAQ and Fox News folks are on their sites, to make myself feel better by posting and reading posts based on agenda, and not fact - just so we can all be happy in our ignorance. I don't know about you, but in an investment forum, especially one where I have a lot at stake in the company being discussed, I'd far prefer for people to post REAL, TRUE, FACTUAL, UNBIASED information, instead of some crap to make themselves, and others feel better.

You should just pretend that these test results don't really exist and make your investment accordingly - if that's how you typically invest. I have simply presented an unbiased interpretation of the facts presented in the test. If you can't handle that, that's on you. Counter the facts with facts - not an attack on the person presenting the information.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Wait I thought we weren't supposed to talk about Unsworth and shoving a sub up someone's a** in this thread.

Dan

Pretty sure I heard an "absolutely no ass-play discussion" warning from mods at some point. There's a political thread for that.

 

[Chickenlittle]

See august 30, 2018 post I posted

”I think the lawyers need to look up pedo in Collins dictionary. It can mean soil, earth. Your all assuming it means pedofile:”

I called Musk defense. I did it for free. He should have called me would have saved what I suspect are large legal bills

 

[green48]

Google Maps usage can get expensive quickly though once you go beyond being small. Supercharge.info once used to get by with basically $0 costs to use it until Google changed their pricing structure and suddenly it was approaching $1000/month in fees. That's why the default page is no longer the map page, for example.

That said I'm sure Tesla has some sort of non-standard arrangement since they would be using it at a very large scale in a specific way (and may have very well negotiated a long term contract well in advance of more recent pricing changes), so it might not cost as much as you'd expect but it still won't be cheap.

Great info. So if we use the numbers from Google's billing section and assume every Tesla driver loads 2 maps per day, that's 800,000*2*365 = 584 Million map loads per year. At roughly $10 per 1000 map loads, that's roughly $5.84 million per year spent on Google's map display.

I know these are crude assumptions, but am I generally reading this right?

 

[KarenRei]

You should just pretend that these test results don't really exist and make your investment accordingly

The problem isn't that you're "pointing out uncomfortable data" that "people just don't want to hear". You're simply wrong about what you're claiming because you haven't taken the time to actually look at the data, which, FYI, isn't even remotely hard to find. Teslas got 11,6 out 12 points (96,7%) on AEB for vulnerable road users.

This is a fact. You can accept it, or you can be wrong. Your choice.

 

[Krugerrand]

That's not what I'm reading, and this is the /r/futurology subreddit whose members are almost all fans of Tesla.

The post has ~20K upvotes so it probably reached several times more redditors.

The video featured in that article is widely shared on plenty of less popular forums (this French one, for instance) with lots of contributors jumping in to stating that EVs are for rich people with too much time on their hands. This may be wrong, but I'd bet it's the first reason for people not to consider buying a Tesla.

As a Tesla shareholder, I'd prefer this community to care more about this kind of publicity that Elon's stupid pedo trial…

So you want Tesla to save humankind from stupidity and itself — oh, wait.

How about this? Tesla is already going full throttle, has a full plate and then some. How about you trot on over to the FORD, GM, VW et al investors forums and tell them they ought to care more about EV adoption etc... and get them to tell those companies to get off their arses and do something more than the bureaucratic dance they so enjoy.

Yes, it irks me when TSLA investors think Tesla isn’t doing enough. Are you blind?

 

[bhtooefr]

Not enough buzz around Benz vehicle anymore, or is it something else?

Mercedes-Benz bows out of the 2020 New York Auto Show

It's an ongoing phenomenon that the auto show circuit is altogether losing its luster.

Auto shows served two purposes: get cars in front of journalists to write stories about them, and get cars in front of potential customers so they can see a bunch of different cars together.

However, Apple (in the consumer electronics space) has proven that you can get journalists to come to your event, instead of you coming to the journalists' event, if your product launch is noteworthy enough. And, then, because it's your event, you control the news cycle in the aftermath of your event, getting as much as a week of coverage, instead of the mere article or two a show participant gets. Tesla's copied that model for the automotive space, and then other automakers are slowly copying it themselves now.

Getting cars in front of potential customers is another story, and that still has value. However, that doesn't need a huge manufacturer booth - a lower-cost display done by the local dealers can do that.

TBH does ANYBODY buy a car based on how safe it is for the pedestrian you hit? I like to think I'm a nice guy, but give me a button that makes my car 1% safer for ME, and 2% more dangerous to anybody I hit, and I'm mashing that button real hard.

European regulators and lawmakers care a lot more than, say, American regulators and lawmakers about vulnerable road user safety. So, this means that a higher standard (or really, a standard at all) of protection for vulnerable road users is demanded, and when injuries occur, awards for the victim are both more likely and higher (in contrast to American practice of victim-blaming the vulnerable road user, sometimes even to the point of fining them for something that's the motorist's fault).

This means that the pedestrian safety features are to an extent mandated, and going beyond the minimum reduces liability insurance rates (due to a lower risk of paying out, and a lower payout, for the insurer).

 

[mongo]

This is obviously a decision for the moderators, but - for right or wrong (correct answer: for wrong) - I think the outcome of this trial is probably the biggest SP-impacting event we're facing in the near term, apart from things like analyst upgrades / downgrades whenever they happen, or any "unexpected news".

Sure, the mods are the final word, if they need to be. It's not like they would go on a side thread and say, "hey bring topic X back to the main thread".
It is definitely one of the more interesting things going on that we have new data being generated about, but only the outcome will have market influence (wrongly (unless it goes up)). Break by break updates (breaking updates?) do not seem to be impactful.

MODERATOR:

STOP discussing what Mods can or can't or should or shouldn't do. IF you've got a sub bee up your....bonnet about how the thread is or isn't being to your liking, you can and are encouraged to contact Mods directly.

 

[KarenRei]

Sure, the mods are the final word, if they need to be. It's not like they would go on a side thread and say, "hey bring topic X back to the main thread".
It is definitely one of the more interesting things going on that we have new data being generated about, but only the outcome will have market influence (wrongly (unless it goes up)). Break by break updates (breaking updates?) do not seem to be impactful.

They do however give a sense of where the case is heading.

 

[Beltsbear]

Great info. So if we use the numbers from Google's billing section and assume every Tesla driver loads 2 maps per day, that's 800,000*2*365 = 584 Million map loads per year. At roughly $10 per 1000 map loads, that's roughly $5.84 million per year spent on Google's map display.

I know these are crude assumptions, but am I generally reading this right?

Tesla does not pay for map loads. They pay for satellite view loads. So that must be about 1/10 that if they did not negotiate a better rate.

 

[StealthP3D]

This is obviously a decision for the moderators, but - for right or wrong (correct answer: for wrong) - I think the outcome of this trial is probably the biggest SP-impacting event we're facing in the near term, apart from things like analyst upgrades / downgrades whenever they happen, or any "unexpected news".

The only thing that makes the defamation trial impactful to the share price is that we know the trial results will come out suddenly. This will move the price suddenly. But not very far, a few bucks at most, and the effect will be extremely short-lived because it doesn't affect Tesla's financials or their ability to sell cars to any significant degree. The effect will be larger if it is a clean win for Musk but only because TSLA is in an uptrend, a win can highlight that. A loss could make Musk look more vulnerable, less Godlike and more human, but it's not the type of thing that could ever hope to reverse the up-trend TSLA stock is in.

At this point, it's looking pretty good for a clean win. The complainants have a lot of dirt on their hands $$. But things like this are just noise in the bigger picture.