Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Webeevdrivers]

I asked this in another forum but probably should have asked here Has anyone heard anything about the pace of Canadian Deliveries presently?

We are currently at our place in Palm Springs for a few months and kind of out of touch with the BC scene.

 

[MC3OZ]

As regards MIC deliveries this quarter, I seem to recall Tesla saying that production could greatly exceed deliveries this year, which I found puzzling at the time. I believe it was back in q1 or q2. Does anyone else recall this?

Edit: From q2 transcript - production will slightly (not greatly) exceed deliveries.

My hunch is MIC Model 3 are to be pre-positioned at delivery centres before the start of Jan 2020 for a smooth flow of deliveries Q1 2020.

I don't have a strong opinion on whether they will deliver any MIC Q4 2019, or if a small number of deliveries will make any substantial difference.

One guess is they want to deliver all US made model 3s first and that may be the usual end of quarter scramble...

Releasing a lot of inventory now for delivery before the end of quarter in the US makes sense, that makes maximum use of the tax credit, and they can easily rebuild inventory in Q1..

So for China I expect something similar, there is a well thought out plan, even if we don't know what it is.... but having a constant flow of deliveries in China with no substantial wave makes a lot of sense...

Once GF4 is up and running the whole logistics of unwinding the wave is a lot easier, the bulk of deliveries in China and Europe will be locally made cars... In turn fewer cars are exported from the US, so more US made cars are available for sale in the US... that all means a more constant flow of deliveries...

For for now, Q4 2019 could be an epic scramble to the finish line, on a big wave...

 

[dc_h]

GF4 gonna be friggin' 'uge

Looks like phase one is 500,000. Is Tesla underpromising again?

 

[Fobble]

welp, time for a new avatar. ce la vie

Instead of kick, it's a hug?

 

[Curt Renz]

Edmunds - today:

 

[MC3OZ]

Why do you say this? Where will they put all the MIC Model 3s when the parking lots at GF3 are full? There are still 20 days left in Q4.

Some evidence cars are moving out of factory lots, there is probably plenty of parking at delivery centres, but that doesn't mean those cars will be delivered in Q4.

 

[ZachF]

Jim Cramer states he’s now a self proclaimed Tesla Zealot on tonight’s CNBC Mad Money episode

The cars themselves are still the best advertisement. You can't know until you experience it.

This is why so much of the EV FUD sounds like virgins talking about sex.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Gonna keep this short but.……..it was always so obvious to me that the Taycan was gonna come in at 200 miles range. VW does everything in their power to mislead, cheat, and lie.

Having said that...….that email that they sent out stating they did independent test in what is quite clearly a way to slander the EPA testing could get them in a lot of legal trouble. When the Taycan does release and people only get 200 miles or less(and it will be less because who drives a Porsche like their grandparents), they will have opened themselves us to very credible lawsuits and deceptive marketing. I really cannot believe Porsche exec's Ok'd that email. What are you thinking?

 

[SteveG3]

We may make fun of Cramer, but these are the things investors should look for as a signal that a stock is about to turn for the better. One by one the most ardent short, bear, non believer becomes a “fanboy”. I would not be surprise if CNBC starts to change their tune by end of next year when both M3 & MY crushes competitors. There just isn’t anything on Wall Street with as much growth potential as Tesla right now.

I think we’re more likely to see Trump ask Hillary to be his running mate in November, *and* for her to accept his offer.


Quite confident that by and large it’s not about the people at large media not “getting it,” but, rather, their emphatically saying a bunch of nonsense over and over to try to divert as much of the public as possible from “getting it.” Paid Programming.

 

[ReflexFunds]

@Troy's latest delivery estimates are out:

Troy Teslike on Twitter

View attachment 487131
​

Up from 104k to 106k and optimistic about demand.

I agree with this mostly my estimate is 105k Q4 deliveries: Fremont production was probably around 7k/week in this quarter, supporting 90k Model 3's - plus 15k S/X.

GF3 is a wildcard of maybe 2k additional deliveries.

I also like it how Troy's early estimates are close to the end-of-quarter estimates.

I wouldn't be particularly disappointed by 105k (vs the 104.4k minimum required to hit the 360k FY guidance that Tesla were "highly confident in exceeding").

However, everything is pointing to me to both a large step up in production and a large reduction in inventory in Q4. I have increased my base case deliveries forecast from 110k to 116.5k.

My 4Q19 base case:

Production: Model 3 90.9k (Fremont +10% QoQ, GF3 3k). S&X 17k. Total 107.9k.
Deliveries: Model 3 98.5k (2k GF3). S&X 18k. Total 116.5k.
Final Inventory: Model 3 7.5k. S&X 6.5k.
​

Regional breakdown for Model 3:

Note my historical regional breakdown is different to the InsideEVs US estimates which I never believed matched real delivery timing. My breakdown is from regional shipping, registration and revenue data & inventory estimates & leaks (e.g c.61k North America sales in Q2 implied by Electrek)

My Inventory estimate breakdown is below. I expect very large inventory reduction in Q4.
Relative to Q3: Final ships are arriving much earlier, Tesla configurator stopped showing current Q delivery estimates much earlier & International production started c.5 days before Q3 end (first Q1 ship is not due until the 8th Jan).

 

[jhm]

GF4 gonna be friggin' 'uge

Is GF3 Phase 1 just one quadrant of GF3? The shape seems to suggest that. Moreover, that would mean that both GF3 and GF4 will be comparable in size.

 

[Curt Renz]

Jim Cramer states he’s now a self proclaimed Tesla Zealot on tonight’s CNBC Mad Money episode

CNBC - an hour ago:

 

[sparcs]

10 billion, lol.

Tesla does not report in-transit. There's no reason to report them as WIP nor would the auditors smile on that. I don't see any reason to exclude them in the P&D report, either, though they may call them out separately. As to the original question, it doesn't cost Tesla anything to hold cars in inventory until Q1, except a few pennies of interest. It also moves revenue and expenses from Q4 into Q1, which they may or may not care about. In general it's better to just run the business and ignore accounting games.

Wouldn't it be a bullish sign if Tesla starts delivering from GF3 in December? It would at least indicate to me that they are on solid enough ground that they don't need any of these accounting tricks.

We know they have hundreds of vehicles from GF3 just sitting there in China ready to be delivered so it would be blatantly obvious if they shifted them to Q1.

anyways, just thinking out loud...

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

CNBC - an hour ago:

That's some Twilight Zone material right there.

 

[waterloo42]

CNBC - an hour ago:

Text article: Jim Cramer: Why I Became a Tesla True Believer but Remain a Netflix Skeptic

"Let's start with what made me go bullish on Tesla after being an agnostic skeptic for all these years.

About three months ago my eldest daughter got a chance to drive a Model 3 from Oregon to San Francisco. She had just sold her beat-up used Ford and had always been a definitive non-car person. I know she had trepidation about the battery and the 600-mile trip.

But within the first 100 miles she called me - that in itself exciting - to tell me how much she loved being behind the wheel of the darned thing. She's never ever expressed even a whit of interest in a vehicle and now she's bragging about it? I told her that I had driven one years ago and loved it but never thought much beyond that. She had two words for me: "buy one."

 

[Thekiwi]

CTV News | News Video - Top National News Headlines - News Videos
"December 10th, 2019 will be remembered as the day the electric aviation age started."
Times are a'changing.

I actually recently started a thread devoted to electric aircraft: Electric Aircraft

note that there are much better electric aircraft in development, most notably the 11 seater eviation Alice, which already has hundreds of orders from US regional operators, and is much more capable than the Canadian seaplane Prototype linked to in that CTV news story above (the Alice has a 900KW battery with 1000km intended range).

 

[MC3OZ]

Wouldn't it be a bullish sign if Tesla starts delivering from GF3 in December? It would at least indicate to me that they are on solid enough ground that they don't need any of these accounting tricks.

We know they have hundreds of vehicles sitting there in China ready to be delivered so it would be blatantly obvious if they shifted them to Q1.

anyways, just thinking out loud...

Do we know that they have delivered all US Made cars?

I'm not expecting delivery centres to sit idle with cars parked that could be delivered, perhaps for a few days, while staff take a well earned break, but not for weeks.

 

[capster]

I wouldn't be particularly disappointed by 105k (vs the 104.4k minimum required to hit the 360k FY guidance that Tesla were "highly confident in exceeding").

However, everything is pointing to me to both a large step up in production and a large reduction in inventory in Q4. I have increased my base case deliveries forecast from 110k to 116.5k.

My 4Q19 base case:

Production: Model 3 90.9k (Fremont +10% QoQ, GF3 3k). S&X 17k. Total 107.9k.
Deliveries: Model 3 98.5k (2k GF3). S&X 18k. Total 116.5k.
Final Inventory: Model 3 7.5k. S&X 6.5k.
​

Regional breakdown for Model 3:

Note my historical regional breakdown is different to the InsideEVs US estimates which I never believed matched real delivery timing. My breakdown is from regional shipping, registration and revenue data & inventory estimates & leaks (e.g c.61k North America sales in Q2 implied by Electrek)

My Inventory estimate breakdown is below. I expect very large inventory reduction in Q4.
Relative to Q3: Final ships are arriving much earlier, Tesla configurator stopped showing current Q delivery estimates much earlier & International production started c.5 days before Q3 end (first Q1 ship is not due until the 8th Jan).

I’ll play.

I’ll say 114K +/- 2K.

Howzat?

Ahem...

 

[HG Wells]

Jim Cramer flipping.
Is that a sell signal ? /S

 

[Unpilot]

CNBC - an hour ago:

Never liked the guy... don't like him now.