Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

There’s just a flood of disappointing news from Tesla-killers this month. I’m actually really surprised at the wholesale level of fail going on here. It’s hard to believe how far behind they are. For sure these companies have the resources to catch up with Tesla and they must have plenty of top notch engineers. If these were sports teams the obvious call would be to fire the managers.

I'm not so sure it's possible: how do you transform a company with ~300,000 employees and a corporate culture of being a big player in an established, safe, 100 years old zero-sum industry with very little genuine innovation, into something that can compete with a fire-breathing, fail-forward Silicon Valley high-tech startup?

Innovation isn't just about great engineers, it's about a whole process, environment and culture that fosters innovation - from top to bottom. Tesla and SpaceX does this well, and so do a lot of other companies, but I don't think there's any example of a big, established company getting infused with innovation at a later stage. Inertia of the ocean liner is just too great.

Killing Tesla in its infancy was always their best shot IMO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

few analysts ascribe any meaningful value (or any value at all) to Tesla Energy. For example, none of Ark's valuations -- including their $6000/share in 2023 bull case -- includes a TE component. Pretty wild considering [what] Elon has said several times that he thinks

FTFY, or at least 'compactified' it for you. They'll learn the hard way what we already know.

Cheers!

 

[jerry33]

I don't think you understand what AI means. If an AI can't do driving in China better and more effectively and safer than a human, then you've failed to build a driving AI.

This shouldn't be a problem. You just need a holographic projector and speaker. When you need to go, the holograph and sounds are projected. When the obstruction screeches to a halt, the AI car goes.

 

[Donatas]

Excellent idea!

Hope you don't mind, but I took your idea and added a bit?

****************************************

Dear Congressman,

Please aggressively support the pending/proposed extension of Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credits.

A basic review of the overwhelming climate science reveals just how far behind we are, and how great the risk has become, due to decades of inaction. Please see climate.nasa.gov among many other sciential sites.

Note that any proposed bill could be improved by providing a sunset date, rather than the currently proposed production limit per manufacturer. The production limit punishes the innovators that were first to make EVs, while giving the latecomers reason to dawdle even longer. That is a remarkably unwise public policy and places us all at risk (regardless of what you may see on Fox News).

Thank you.

An alternative that would really set a fire under everyone is a flat pool across all manufacturers. First, say, 1 million EV’s, by any manufacturer, sold get the credit and none after that.

While incentives are ofc way better than doing nothing I think most if not all of them have some flaws usually by not motivating enough, everyone, all the time or equally.
I believe better approach to speed up transition to EVs would be to just add huge taxes for buyers of ICE vehicles. (Isn't it what worked in Norway?) That would lead to weak ICE sales so manufacturers would be forced to choose to either shrink/quit their business or start producing affordable and compelling EVs people would want to buy. All the taxes collected could be used to build out charging infrastructure or to offset some damage from air pollution to people and environment.

 

[Christine69420]

Maybe better approach would be to just add huge taxes for buyers of ICE vehicles (say 50-100%)? (Isn't it what worked in Norway?)

In Norway we had heavy car taxes based on car price and engine size. We then changed taxes to be based on pollution. And suddenly BEVs got no taxes. While fossil cars maintained the high tax levels. Additional incentives for BEVs such as free tollroads, ferries, public parking and free driving in bus lanes helped people switch cars.

These additional incentives are now beeing somewhat rolled back. There are basically two views - either that we are sponsoring EVs for rich people - or that we need even more incentives going forward since most cars on the road are still fossils.

 

[HG Wells]

I agree 100%. From the beginning of the current tax credit, I've said they got everything right except the per manufacturer limit. If your goal is to promote EVs, why would you care who is selling them? Just never made any sense to me. I have to wonder how many cars Tesla would have sold if the tax credit would have remained at $7500.

Zero.
They sold every one they made.

Might have sold a few more X and S but they couldn't even make one more 3.

 

[Sudre]

Rebates, credit or free cash back.... I just don't see how incumbent US auto manufacturers can sell EVs to the masses. Ford is a great example. When I walk onto a Ford stealership lot and see an Escape for $24,105 and a Ford Mock 3̵ for $42,000 and everything is the same, except one is something I don't know much about (electric), which am I really going to buy? WE know which one the sleaze man is going to want me to buy.

The next problem is charging. They are probably going to give me a 110 volt charge cord at base price. The car sleaze man is going to explain to me clearly how that is not enough for my daily commute so he will gladly include the cost of a better charger and the electrician to install it for $4999... actually he will have a special package for me! For today only I can get the EV ups package which includes 3 years of service, an installed real charger (a whole 15 miles per hour), and an undercoating to protect the battery from the elements. With the $7500 tax credit that I will be getting that's a a real deal! Oh they will have to order it from the factory. They only have the display model. No I can't test drive the display model. They forgot to charge it.

Or I can buy the Escape fully loaded, everything! out the door today for $28,500. It's the end of the year blowout sale! He just happens to have the keys right on his desk ready for a test drive.

I am no fool tho. I tell him to stick his package where the sun don't shine and I'll take a Ford Mock 3̵ so get out the order form. Then he starts going over the financing. It's only 5% but for the Escape there is a better deal of zero percent for the first 36 month with zero down and I can skip the first payment.

NO! I tell him. I have financing through my credit union at 2.9% and I'll just order the car now.... well.... there is a deposit of 10% do at signing plus a $2000 destination fee also due now.

Finally I tell him never mind. While he was going through his anti-sales pitch I bought the Moch 3̵ online and chose delivery at his store with none of the markups. He then informs me (true or not) that I will have to bring it in to his stealership every 5000 miles for a service or he will not honor the warranty.

 

[Artful Dodger]

There is, in fact, nothing easier than building an electric car. It's a chassis/frame/body, electric motors, and some batteries

So, that was before the Cybertruck reveal? Or maybe he doesn't realize CT has no frame, just a hull (like an AFV). But then, neither does Sandy Munroe as he showed during his latest Youtube interview.

But according to @avoigt the CEO of Porsche doesn't understand how electric motors work either, so its possible. Then Ford will be 'Dearborn in the headlights' for CT.

 

[madodel]

Sure but can Chinese Millennials afford cars any better than American Millennials can?

Do they have tens/hundreds of thousands in school loans to payoff like many American Millennials?

 

[madodel]

Rebates, credit or free cash back.... I just don't see how incumbent US auto manufacturers can sell EVs to the masses. Ford is a great example. When I walk onto a Ford stealership lot and see an Escape for $24,105 and a Ford Mock 3̵ for $42,000 and everything is the same, except one is something I don't know much about (electric), which am I really going to buy? WE know which one the sleaze man is going to want me to buy.

The next problem is charging. They are probably going to give me a 110 volt charge cord at base price. The car sleaze man is going to explain to me clearly how that is not enough for my daily commute so he will gladly include the cost of a better charger and the electrician to install it for $4999... actually he will have a special package for me! For today only I can get the EV ups package which includes 3 years of service, an installed real charger (a whole 15 miles per hour), and an undercoating to protect the battery from the elements. With the $7500 tax credit that I will be getting that's a a real deal! Oh they will have to order it from the factory. They only have the display model. No I can't test drive the display model. They forgot to charge it.

Or I can buy the Escape fully loaded, everything! out the door today for $28,500. It's the end of the year blowout sale! He just happens to have the keys right on his desk ready for a test drive.

I am no fool tho. I tell him to stick his package where the sun don't shine and I'll take a Ford Mock 3̵ so get out the order form. Then he starts going over the financing. It's only 5% but for the Escape there is a better deal of zero percent for the first 36 month with zero down and I can skip the first payment.

NO! I tell him. I have financing through my credit union at 2.9% and I'll just order the car now.... well.... there is a deposit of 10% do at signing plus a $2000 destination fee also due now.

Finally I tell him never mind. While he was going through his anti-sales pitch I bought the Moch 3̵ online and chose delivery at his store with none of the markups. He then informs me (true or not) that I will have to bring it in to his stealership every 5000 miles for a service or he will not honor the warranty.

Yeah but he'd get you with the pinstriping, rustproofing and floor mat package for only $4000 more.

 

[SteveG3]

Yes they do, and the current craze are SUVs. The single children millennial are married with children now.

With all this being said, I think Tesla appease strongly to people who wants the latest tech. Young Chinese are pretty liberal and all embrace this AI/high tech future. It has always been like this, where highest tech always equal to high prestige. There's a reason why automation is everywhere in China, Shanghai looking like a city from Judge Dredd, and Shanghai Disneyland made all other Disneyland feel 20 years old. Tesla (and before Apple) screams "cutting edge technology" which will sell cars.

The Chinese government seems so strongly in favor of moving to EVs/taking on pollution challenges, and largely seem quite impressed with Elon (IIRC, pretty much offered him an open invite to make China his home). I’m wondering if all of the above might add up to some Tesla halo/desirability/prestige factor to consumers and their influential parents that gas luxury cars do not have (beyond the EV incentives Tesla is qualifying for).

 

[Bet TSLA]

So how can Tesla or anyone solve the issue of succeeding at driving in an area where NOT traffic laws determines how one should drive but selfishness/assertiveness is championed.

Yup, you have no idea what AI means.

 

[Green Pete]

Excellent idea!

Hope you don't mind, but I took your idea and added a bit?

****************************************

Dear Congressman,

Please aggressively support the pending/proposed extension of Electric Vehicle (EV) tax credits.

A basic review of the overwhelming climate science reveals just how far behind we are, and how great the risk has become, due to decades of inaction. Please see climate.nasa.gov among many other sciential sites.

Note that any proposed bill could be improved by providing a sunset date, rather than the currently proposed production limit per manufacturer. The production limit punishes the innovators that were first to make EVs, while giving the latecomers reason to dawdle even longer. That is a remarkably unwise public policy and places us all at risk (regardless of what you may see on Fox News).

Thank you.

Id much prefer they extend the 30% solar tax credit than the EV one. Electric cars IMO have gained enough steam that growth is going to continue to accelerate.

Solar installs on the other hand still seem under adopted. I live just south of SF and I see Tesla everywhere. I cant recall seeing residential solar anywhere in the area tho.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Zero.
They sold every one they made.

Might have sold a few more X and S but they couldn't even make one more 3.

I said "sold", not delivered.

Think about if the S an X had continued its sales pace.

 

[Beltsbear]

So, that was before the Cybertruck reveal? Or maybe he doesn't realize CT has no frame, just a hull (like an AFV). But then, neither does Sandy Munroe as he showed during his latest Youtube interview.

I like Sandy Munroe but his latest interview on E for Electric was really bad. He thinks the cybertruck will do well, but was talking about the body being a sandwich of materials for its bullet resistance. He had no idea that it was just stainless. He got plenty of things right, but also plenty of things wrong.

 

[SteveG3]

"Tesla’s Musk says solar, energy storage will grow faster than electric cars, and there’s some truth to it"

Look at this pathetic headline on CNBC - "there's SOME truth to it". I'm SO glad we have this guy to let us know when Musk is telling the truth and when he's lying.

What other company gets these kind of BS headlines? It's as if 95% of what Musk says is a lie. And even worse about this article is that this guy thinks we should believe that he knows more than Musk and is the authority to tell us when Musk is lying or there might be SOME TRUTH to it. SMH

your last paragraph sums up some of the key propaganda points of the misinformation campaign directed at Tesla. there’s been many years and thousands of repetitions of those messages... the basic point of all that repeated programming is for that misinformation to be mistaken for common sense only some kind of Elon ‘cultist’ would be too delusional to fail to have realized long ago.

 

[Green Pete]

Given musk's comments about the growth of Tesla energy potentially surpassing the auto component of Tesla has there been any format for tracking installs that we have tried to organize? Are people posting powerwall unit numbers somewhere like Tesla VINs? Is there some way to track panel installs?

I get the feeling were going to get a pleasant surprise when numbers for Q4 come out

 

[sundaymorning]

From a unreliable person familiar with the matter.

A birdie tells me we’ve already doubled the 20megawatt installations from last quarter. The goal is still 50mega but not sure if the holidays will allow us to surpass.

It appears the energy side is ramping up again in a big way and that switching to the new format is accelerating demand/sales; how will analysts react to the doubling of last quarter’s energy sector, can we triple that amount come next quarter? What does this mean for Tesla and it’s valuation if we keep up this pace for the next several years?

 

[EinSV]

A birdie tells me we’ve already doubled the 20megawatt installations from last quarter. The goal is still 50mega but not sure if the holidays will allow us to surpass.

It appears the energy side is ramping up again in a big way and that switching to the new format is accelerating demand/sales; how will analysts react to the doubling of last quarter’s energy sector, can we triple that amount come next quarter? What does this mean for Tesla and it’s valuation if we keep up this pace for the next several years?

I’m a little confused (or your birdie is). Last quarter they installed 43 MW of solar per the Q3 shareholder letter so 50 MW would be an improvement but not doubling.

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47313d21-3cac-4f69-9497-d161bce15da4

 

[Andy O]

So how can Tesla or anyone solve the issue of succeeding at driving in an area where NOT traffic laws determines how one should drive but selfishness/assertiveness is championed.

The first Cybertruck sold in China won't have any trouble driving with AI.