Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Opinion: Toyota NA CEO Bails Before Oncoming EV Iceberg | CleanTechnica

"Jim Lentz (President, Toyota N.America) is smart, he is leaving before Model Y starts devastating Lexus and Toyota’s crossover lineup and Toyota profits. April 2020 is not a coincidence."​

 

[Steve m]

Opinion: Toyota NA CEO Bails Before Oncoming EV Iceberg | CleanTechnica

"Jim Lentz (President, Toyota N.America) is smart, he is leaving before Model Y starts devastating Lexus and Toyota’s crossover lineup and Toyota profits. April 2020 is not a coincidence."​

Oh my...Toyota's North American President has quit. Rats jumping off of a sinking ship. Quick notify TMQ.

 

[EVNow]

Zero.
They sold every one they made.

Might have sold a few more X and S but they couldn't even make one more 3.

But 3 ASP would have been higher. They wouldn't have introduced SR in a hurry. Q1 wouldn't have been so bad.

Most importantly a lot of us wouldn't have lost a lot of money.

 

[RFernatt]

Opinion: Toyota NA CEO Bails Before Oncoming EV Iceberg | CleanTechnica

"Jim Lentz (President, Toyota N.America) is smart, he is leaving before Model Y starts devastating Lexus and Toyota’s crossover lineup and Toyota profits. April 2020 is not a coincidence."​

Executive turnover! Stop the presses!

 

[EVNow]

So how can Tesla or anyone solve the issue of succeeding at driving in an area where NOT traffic laws determines how one should drive but selfishness/assertiveness is championed.

You mean like in US parking lots ?

Definitely driving rules would need to be changed for places like China & India. May be they will need to get to AI deciding how to drive rather than procedural code.

 

[sundaymorning]

I’m a little confused (or your birdie is). Last quarter they installed 43 MW of solar per the Q3 shareholder letter so 50 MW would be an improvement but not doubling.

https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/47313d21-3cac-4f69-9497-d161bce15da4

you’re right, disregard my bird. Last Q was 43MW, I was told last quarter was 20..

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

On a rainy day that kept the family inside doing indoor things, I remembered back to the "Alladin Star" Mena Massoud who crashed his brand new P3D into a tree and then sued saying the wheel fell off. (Well, technically it did fall off, after he drove it into the tree...)

There was a slew of negative articles about it- that short selling clown whose name rhymes with StainBlight (who I just discovered apparently has a "counter" on the site that merely measures page refreshes, purporting to be "how many views!"), and that infamous blogger from BI who tried to write a "whompy wheels piece."

Anyway, the case was supposedly filed ~5/30, lots of articles went out around 5/30 - 6/1 and TSLA hit what I believe to be the all-time low of 2019 shortly thereafter and hit ~$178.87 closing price on 6/3. What a year it's been.

 

[Doit]

From a mercedes EQC review:

"To make sure it behaves in the same protective way in a crash, it even has steel-tube replicas of the combustion car’s engine block and gearbox housing, except here they mostly enclose fresh air rather than pistons and gears."
OMG. This is an embarrassing level of failing to compete... WHo the hell would buy that?

Mercedes-Benz EQC

You sure you didn't accidentally copy & paste above paragraph from The Onion?

 

[ZsoZso]

I agree 100%. From the beginning of the current tax credit, I've said they got everything right except the per manufacturer limit. If your goal is to promote EVs, why would you care who is selling them? Just never made any sense to me. I have to wonder how many cars Tesla would have sold if the tax credit would have remained at $7500.

IMHO, the whole EV-rebate or tax credit idea is wrong. It makes people complain that government is giving hand-outs to rich people who can afford those expensive Teslas/EVs.
The right solution is the stick, not the carrot. Add a significant emission tax* to all ICE vehicles instead and use the money to build-out EV charging infrastructure -- basically wheat Norway is doing and it clearly works for them!

* preferably one that scales progressively (not linearly) with engine size, and has to be paid annually, so it applies to old cars too

 

[kengchang]

On a rainy day that kept the family inside doing indoor things, I remembered back to the "Alladin Star" Mena Massoud who crashed his brand new P3D into a tree and then sued saying the wheel fell off. (Well, technically it did fall off, after he drove it into the tree...)

There was a slew of negative articles about it- that short selling clown whose name rhymes with StainBlight (who I just discovered apparently has a "counter" on the site that merely measures page refreshes, purporting to be "how many views!"), and that infamous blogger from BI who tried to write a "whompy wheels piece."

Anyway, the case was supposedly filed ~5/30, lots of articles went out around 5/30 - 6/1 and TSLA hit what I believe to be the all-time low of 2019 shortly thereafter and hit ~$178.87 closing price on 6/3. What a year it's been.

Anyone follows this civil suit?

 

[JustMe]

you’re right, disregard my bird. Last Q was 43MW, I was told last quarter was 20..

Tesla Energy does solar roofs, home solar panels, and commercial solar - correct? Do we know the breakdown of those parts of the business? Perhaps the 20 MW related to one of those bits.

 

[JustMe]

Opinion: Toyota NA CEO Bails Before Oncoming EV Iceberg | CleanTechnica

"Jim Lentz (President, Toyota N.America) is smart, he is leaving before Model Y starts devastating Lexus and Toyota’s crossover lineup and Toyota profits. April 2020 is not a coincidence."​

Dramatization of the moment that Tesla becomes the dominant automaker...
(Rated PG for mild violence)

Andreas on Twitter

 

[Davidzhao365]

The below is the from Elon’s master plan blog, does it mean Giga Shanghai is version 1, Giga Europe is Version 2 and even cheaper than v1?

What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.

​

 

[JustMe]

The below is the from Elon’s master plan blog, does it mean Giga Shanghai is version 1, Giga Europe is Version 2 and even cheaper than v1?

What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.​

That would be the strict reading of it. But GF4 is going up so quickly after GF3 that I don’t expect radical changes to the model Y line. Of course they’re always tinkering and innovating So who knows what they’ve got going. Musk described GF3 as the template for future growth.

One of the articles about GF3 stated that Tesla was hiring engineers in China who would be involved with developing advanced manufacturing methods and new vehicles. This to me is pretty interesting on both counts. Elon did say earlier this year that they would make a car that was cheaper than the model 3. Maybe China is the first market for such a vehicle?

 

[Singuy]

You mean like in US parking lots ?

Definitely driving rules would need to be changed for places like China & India. May be they will need to get to AI deciding how to drive rather than procedural code.

I wish it's like US parking lot. Remember, I drive daily in the U.S and deal with parking lots almost on a daily basis. I don't drive in China because I know I will not succeed. Never yield, always cut people off, always squeeze into any open space, doesn't matter if you go the wrong way, doesn't matter who has the right of way, doesn't matter if there's a baby stroller in front of you..just keep going. If the lady doesn't move the carriage out of your way then it's her problem..because you honked.

It's actually pretty easy to solve, just have a Tesla not stop and keep going. People/cars need to stop for the Tesla. Write that rule in and you are golden. Might hit a few people or bicycles but that's just standard practice.

 

[Steve m]

IMHO, the whole EV-rebate or tax credit idea is wrong. It makes people complain that government is giving hand-outs to rich people who can afford those expensive Teslas/EVs.
The right solution is the stick, not the carrot. Add a significant emission tax* to all ICE vehicles instead and use the money to build-out EV charging infrastructure -- basically wheat Norway is doing and it clearly works for them!

* preferably one that scales progressively (not linearly) with engine size, and has to be paid annually, so it applies to old cars too

Yea if you buy the idea that what the government doesn't take from you is a gift from the government.

Funny how not dumping poison into the air people breath isn't also a gift from the government.

 

[FrankSG]

Warning!!!: not quite as entertaining as watching Cramer drooling over Tesla. Maybe just a boring alert. We already know Tesla is kicking ass, so no reason to watch over an hour of this. Unless of course you’re trying to cure insomnia.

I strongly disagree. Following Tesla news and TMC + r/teslainvestorsclub daily, it's extremely rare that I can watch an interview about Tesla that isn't just rehashed information that I already know about. I loved the interview because it contained new insights about the China market that I was previously unaware of, and because I had never heard a Wall Street analyst talk at length about his views on Tesla.

 

[FrankSG]

The below is the from Elon’s master plan blog, does it mean Giga Shanghai is version 1, Giga Europe is Version 2 and even cheaper than v1?

What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.

​

Most important thing to Tesla's success alongside FSD and Battery Supply Chain imo.

I want a Manufacturing Investor Day so bad! I've submitted a question through say.com past 2 quarters to try to ask if they can do Manufacturing Investor Day after Battery & Powertrain Investor Day, but it didn't get nearly enough upvotes

 

[FrankSG]

On a rainy day that kept the family inside doing indoor things, I remembered back to the "Alladin Star" Mena Massoud who crashed his brand new P3D into a tree and then sued saying the wheel fell off. (Well, technically it did fall off, after he drove it into the tree...)

There was a slew of negative articles about it- that short selling clown whose name rhymes with StainBlight (who I just discovered apparently has a "counter" on the site that merely measures page refreshes, purporting to be "how many views!"), and that infamous blogger from BI who tried to write a "whompy wheels piece."

Anyway, the case was supposedly filed ~5/30, lots of articles went out around 5/30 - 6/1 and TSLA hit what I believe to be the all-time low of 2019 shortly thereafter and hit ~$178.87 closing price on 6/3. What a year it's been.

I feel very blessed about the way this year went. I had a lot of funds tied up all year and got them available on Friday May 30th. Doubled my # of TSLA shares at $185 on the 2nd best day to do so in the last 3 years.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

The below is the from Elon’s master plan blog, does it mean Giga Shanghai is version 1, Giga Europe is Version 2 and even cheaper than v1?

What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product. A first principles physics analysis of automotive production suggests that somewhere between a 5 to 10 fold improvement is achievable by version 3 on a roughly 2 year iteration cycle. The first Model 3 factory machine should be thought of as version 0.5, with version 1.0 probably in 2018.

​

I was wondering if one of the constraints on the speed of ramp is the rate at which battery and battery pack manufacturing equipment can be produced by Grohmann and Hibar. The initial M3 production target for GF3 of 150k/year seems to be aligned with the capacity of the old battery pack production equipment transferred from GF1. I am guessing that the rest of the GF3 production line will have a similar capacity to Fremont M3, around 350k/year. If they could have gone directly to higher capacity new equipment for battery and battery pack they probably would have done so - they have the cash now.

The brilliance of buying Grohmann and Hibar is that the production of the machine that builds the machine that builds the machine is under Tesla's control and the necessary investments can be made. That would never have been possible if they had remained outside Tesla. Perhaps we will get more info at the battery day when they talk about scaling to 2 TWh/year.

It is great to see the positive impact of strategic thinking from years ago coming to fruition.