Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neezer]

I just want to see if this is really going to be as predictable as it appears.
This isn't technicals... this is just chicken scratching.

View attachment 490730

IMO, technical analysis is too close to worthless for me to reverse my abandoning of it some years back ... sorry ...

 

[Curt Renz]

I just want to see if this is really going to be as predictable as it appears.
This isn't technicals... this is just chicken scratching.

View attachment 490730

A pause could be expected on this Triple Witching Day to allow heavy option writers to play their game.

 

[sundaymorning]

Ford's Fix for Recalled Super Duty Trucks Is a Roll of Duct Tape

Duct tape your Tesla anyone? And we’re here complaining about panel gaps.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The Boeing Starliner and SpaceX discussion found its rightful home: SpaceX (out of main)

 

[Singuy]

What the legacy analyst fail to see in the China slumping sales over the past year:

Many Chinese EV consumers are *waiting* for the Chinese made Tesla vehicles to hit the market.

The Gigafactory construction began about a year ago, anticipation has been mounting ever since. With a year of waiting also comes planned savings and preparation... just as we have discovered with previous early announcement of models and factory plans, along with the reservation system Tesla has in place to track it.

It can be a strongly suggestive metric for why China EV auto numbers are down over the past year.

It’s like when a tsunami is about to hit, the “tide” appears to go way out, some uninformed people think the sea is disappearing, but then soon notice a gigantic fricking wall of water coming at them at a high rate of speed.

This wall is the coming sales/revenue number to come out of China auto market crashing down on those near-sighted analysts standing in the sand with their metal detector and sun visor who continue to think it’s a perfect time to scan for lost quarters.

From the safety of high ground, many of us see the sales numbers from the past year as wildly good news for 2020 Tesla sales in China.

Hmm, we need more Chinese to weigh in on this speculation more. I believe big cities have stop issuing license plates for subpar EVs, which used to be the bulk of EVs sold in China.

 

[neezer]

Anyone know what kind of silicon Rivian is using/relying on these days to power their apparently competitive autonomous / camera aspects? NVDA stuff? I am a bit apprehensive in believing they'll pull it off smoothly, but of course we want them to succeed nicely.

Rivian's new 'Guardian Mode' will safely move passengers without any driver present

 

[Tslynk67]

Where are the Tesla sellers? What happened to them? They were there every day for ages. Every point. Suddenly they are gone. The stock opens higher each morning like clockwork and it has no resistance. What happened?

First, earnings. That's right, there are now real projections and they are spectacular: $5 next year and then $10 in 2021. These are consensus estimates. They are vetted and they actually may happen. That means it is a heck of a lot better than Ford and GM when it comes to growth and growth is really all that matters when it comes to vehicles because no one else has it. No one.

Second, ingenuity: So many auto companies were supposed to have real competitive products in the market, genuine, well-engineered products with real cache, especially the Germans. Looks like they are a lot harder to make than people thought. The competition isn't there.

Third: Musk himself has gone from someone who seemed chronically on the verge of some sort of nervous breakdown or egomaniacal high that he became his own worst enemy. We don't know if he's gotten his life together, I sure hope he has, and maybe he even believes it is together and it isn't. The fact is it doesn't matter. He's no longer teasing the SEC. He's no longer trashing the analysts. He's just like all other CEOs with the rare exception of the departing John Legere from T-Mobile . He runs a good, thorough conference call, gives an occasional speech and is otherwise, I never thought I would say this, not controversial. That makes him easy to get behind.

Fourth: If you have earnings estimates it's pretty easy to raise enough money to make or do whatever you want. For years I heard that Tesla could never make a profit. Then I heard that if they make a profit it's all made up, using subsidies and bogus accounting.

Fifth: Now I hear nothing. And if Tesla is going to make even half of what the analysts say it would be no problem to raise $5 billion at reasonable rates if needed.

Sixth: He really was able to build a gigantic factory in 10 months. As someone who has been involved in building even the smallest of factories that's astounding. That's better than Intel , which I always regarded as the single greatest manufacturer we have in this country and they can't build them fasted than 18 months. I know some of you think that might not be a good comparison but you need to know that Intel had long been considered the gold standard when it came to greenfield factory build outs.

Seventh: The solar panel deal which seemed so dilutive is now becoming an asset not a liability as Musk has somehow been able to reduce the price of the product to where the payback is pretty immediate and the competition yields nothing.

Eighth: The cars have only improved with each iteration. They still have tremendous pizazz even when a rock gets thrown through a window of a cyber truck that's supposed to be unbreakable. Millennials love them.

Ninth: Charging stations are now ubiquitous and easily found via the web.

Tenth: It turns out that many of the sellers were short sellers, not long sellers. They have disappeared or are covering - they are the ones who buy before the market opens - because it's a hard borrow without a real thesis. I can't own stocks. Tesla's not for a charitable trust. But I have liked it ever since the rock went through the window and I like it just as much today even as it's having a monumental move. No level, no level seems to bring out sellers. It's a phenomenon. One that's rarely seen and one that's incredible to behold.

Whatever your views on him, this is the absolute truth of the matter.

 

[Sudre]

Yes this is all voodoo but it appears the Bears do not get a close below 400 altho they can push us into the red. I just don't think they have the Jedi skills needed today.

I really hope they do because I have some buys waiting for it! Go bears go.....

 

[thait84]

Whatever your views on him, this is the absolute truth of the matter.

Yep! Very coherent and concise. Too bad it is behind a paywall. It should be published more widely.

 

[SOULPEDL]

It was a great week, had to wear my new Starman tiedye shirt today. Very cool!

 

[wipster]

Come on man, don't let the shorties get us down!

(Seriously though, as long as the SP closes over 400, I will be satisfied... for now ;-)

 

[winfield100]

I’m curious, is this correct? I stumbled upon it earlier today. It’s regarding TSLA.
I find it difficult to believe shorts have lost this much in 3 years. Does this include the shares not covered yet
Seriously, I only deal with buying and selling, no options, no shorts, etc. and am confused.


””....@ihors3: 2016-2019 net-of-financing mark-to-market P\L= -$8,173 billion. Stock borrow fee is -$887 million, unrealized P\L is -$7.286 billion...

 

[Tslynk67]

Come on man, don't let the shorties get us down!

(Seriously though, as long as the SP closes over 400, I will be satisfied... for now ;-)

Totally agreed - this looked like the line in the sand for the MM's today. Now either they're waiting 'till the death, the goalposts have shifted or they can't do it, but I thought it was all over by mid-morning already...

 

[ke6jph]

Anybody have a GMC 3500 pickup? Anyone?

Ford's Fix for Recalled Super Duty Trucks Is a Roll of Duct Tape

Duct tape your Tesla anyone? And we’re here complaining about panel gaps.

Funny, we were plugging a hole in the bracket with a pop rivet (unknown why the hole was there to begin with) and adding foil tape to the carpet at the base of the B pillar. Go figure, how long have we had seat belt pretensioners and now a hole shows up and creates an issue?

 

[thait84]

I can read these stories all day long.

Alex on Twitter

 

[humbaba]

I’m curious, is this correct? I stumbled upon it earlier today. It’s regarding TSLA.
I find it difficult to believe shorts have lost this much in 3 years. Does this include the shares not covered yet
Seriously, I only deal with buying and selling, no options, no shorts, etc. and am confused.


””....@ihors3: 2016-2019 net-of-financing mark-to-market P\L= -$8,173 billion. Stock borrow fee is -$887 million, unrealized P\L is -$7.286 billion...

It is my understanding that the "mark-to-market" losses (or gains) are the net short position. As such it doesn't matter that some shorts make out like bandits (e.g., any of them smart enough to close when the stock was down in the dumps) its that the short position, in aggregate, is behind that much.

Put another way, those "losses" are the amount of money tied up in maintaining that short position.

 

[Tslynk67]

Yep! Very coherent and concise. Too bad it is behind a paywall. It should be published more widely.

Paywall for this article is removed later today:

Today's Real Money content from Jim Cramer will be available after 7pm ET.
WANT 24/7 ACCESS TO JIM CRAMER?

 

[JustMe]

IMO, technical analysis is too close to worthless for me to reverse my abandoning of it some years back ... sorry ...

No you’re way off base here. Technical Analysis is an excellent tool for predicting stock prices, when it works. You’ll know if it works by comparing what happened with the prediction.

 

[neezer]

Yeah, when it works. I tell my child daughter that when you see a unicorn running across the field one day, it shall be utterly glorious!

 

[MP3Mike]

I’m curious, is this correct? I stumbled upon it earlier today. It’s regarding TSLA.
I find it difficult to believe shorts have lost this much in 3 years. Does this include the shares not covered yet
Seriously, I only deal with buying and selling, no options, no shorts, etc. and am confused.


””....@ihors3: 2016-2019 net-of-financing mark-to-market P\L= -$8,173 billion. Stock borrow fee is -$887 million, unrealized P\L is -$7.286 billion...

That figure is for if they were to have completely closed out of their short positions at the closing price last night without causing the price to go up. In other words, their loses will likely be much higher unless they can close out in a very slow orderly process.
Shoot, more than 10% of their loss is borrow fees.