Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Maitri982]

Was at Chevy dealer couples days ago squeezing in state inspection before end of year. The lady processing my paperwork told me that her dream car was a Tesla!!

when I walked her out and the model x door opened by itself she was blown away. Brought another guy over to see it. He grimaced

the decade coming is going to be the decade of solar and electric vehicles. This will happen much faster than anyone (except here) believes. The main issue for tesla is being able to “carpe diem” as growing capacity to meet the burgeoning demand will be challenging. Need GF’s everywhere.

 

[MP3Mike]

Autopilot doesn't do red lights or stop signs yet. It merely recognizes that they are there. So what they'll actually be investigating is the actions(or inaction) of the human operator.

In this case they could be investigating if NoA malfunctioned. If NoA exited the freeway and didn't slow down/stop at the end of the exit it could have contributed to the problem.

But of course the driver was responsible as AP is a driver aid not a driver replacement until FSD is released and approved to be a independent driver.

 

[floydboy]

I sure hope NHSTA doesn't put the kibosh on we human driving systems, just because of a few(million) accidents.

 

[Tslynk67]

Expect the shorts to run with this one: Tesla may have been on Autopilot in California crash which killed two

Summary a Tesla ran a red light and killed two people in a Honda. NHTSA is going to investigate. Autopilot may, or may not, have been in use.

Which of course is 0% the fault of AP or Tesla and 100% the fault of the driver.

 

[traxila]

I sure hope NHSTA doesn't put the kibosh on we human driving systems, just because of a few(million) accidents.

Of course this is true, but I do feel that in our dismissive outrage over the stupidity of the whole debate we overlook the fact that Government agencies enact and conduct extreme stupidity on a regular and ongoing basis. To dismiss the NHSTA as incapable of issuing some edict banning autopilot and the damage that might do to TSLA and Tesla as a car company is a mistake.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Which of course is 0% the fault of AP or Tesla and 100% the fault of the driver.

The last statistic I can remember hearing is 35000 auto fatalities a year, but every single tesla fatality gets NHTSA investigation. I applaud their work effort but question the percentage of all auto fatalities that are investigated?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Of this is true but I do feel that in our dismissive outrage over the stupidity of the whole debate we do not overlook the fact that Government agencies enact and conduct extreme stupidity on a regular and ongoing basis. To dismiss the NHSTA as incapable of issuing some edict banning autopilot and the damage that might do to TSLA and Tesla as a car company is a mistake.

Especially with a hostile administration.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I am expecting South Korea becoming the next hot market due to generous subsidy

My new son in law from South Korea visited us and I was very surprised by his knowledge and enthusiasm over tesla

 

[sweter]

Lots of new planned Supercharger pins added to the map

Hér erum við | Tesla

Iceland gets one more dot added, at Egilsstaðir (far side of the island from Reykjavík), which would create a closed - but very sparse (tough for SR/towing/winter) - ring.

Canada gets a route through Saskatoon to Edmonton. Curiously, they don't show the new route already going in through Jasper. I think southern BC gets denser. The Butte to Calgary route shows.

Some cities show huge urban expansion plans. For example, Minneapolis plans to go from 2 to 8.

Burns, Oregon - site of the biggest lower-48 Supercharger gap in the US once Dakota-Montana closes - now has a planned Supercharger. The next biggest gaps (Ely, NV and Grangeville, ID) still don't have one.

New Mexico route: El Paso to Mazatlan. I think Tuxtla Gutiérrez may be new, suggesting possibly plans to move further into Central America.

Looks like they're finally planning to finish out northern Norway, and even dipping into northern Finland.

Oh, hey, Alaska gets their first Supercharger, at Anchorage!

Hmm, is there a difference-shower? I see a lot of things that I *think* are new, but I'm not positive, as I haven't been following their areas as closely.

(Still looking around!)

Interesting. Nothing new for Poland, except for annual roll through to "Target opening by the end of 2018 / 2019 / 2020"

Surprisingly no mention of SuC site in Radom which was spotted in construction few weeks ago.

As @Papafox and @StealthP3D have alluded to a few times with their insightful posts, Tesla is not a stock to attempt to guess the dips.
I have learned that the hard way:

In July 2013, I made a $500k investment in Apple at $60/share. Sold it one short year later in Aug 2014 for $116/share for $980k. Almost a 100% return. At the time, my best investment gain ever (by far). I was so thrilled. What a mistake that was.
The stock sits today at $293/share and I would have been sitting on $2.4m (a 5x gain). I felt the stock had run up too fast and I was going to get back in on the dip. I never found the right time to get back in. In fact , I would have sold earlier than Aug 2014 (for a smaller gain) but I was waiting for the 1 year holding period for capital gains. Waiting for the 1 year holding period made me money.

After much reflection from that experience, I have two points to share:
- I had tended to sell my Winners too soon and hold my Losers too long. If the investment thesis is still intact, I now let the Winners run.
- There are many companies that will provide returns of 5x, 10x, etc but it is difficult to identify them (e.g. the small biotech with a new cancer drug). If I am lucky, I have the ability to spot maybe 4 or 5 of these companies during my entire investment career...and when they arrive, my plan is too bet big and hold (as long as the investment thesis stays intact).

After the Apple experience, I had been looking for that next 5x, 10x investment. I had been waiting patiently since 2014 to place that big bet. I always had Tesla on my radar screen but in 2019 the thesis really worked for me. I made a big investment prior to the dip and then doubled my investment at the dip - at an entry point below $200/shr. TSLA SP may go up and down over the next several years but I am not going to make the same mistake I did with Apple, selling and looking for the dip. There may never be a time to get back in.

Btw, having invested in Tesla, my Apple investment now ranks #2 on my all-time gains rankings.

This is not advice, as everyone has different investment goals and tolerances.

Happy New Year everyone!

That's why I only trade with 30% of my holding and keep the rest. I've been 75%/25% successful with it I think (in terms of trades, not actual $ made, didn't count that) and managed to regain 50% of the shares I sold to finance 50% of my Model 3

 

[carterm2]

I am still looking for accurate stats.


2018 TESLA MODEL 3 4 DR RWD

 

[Bet TSLA]

My guess...

Exactly, all guessing. And that's cool when we make clear that we're guessing. We just have to avoid pretending our guesses are facts. Thanks for doing that.

Data rules!

 

[SebastianR]

I am still looking for accurate stats.

2018 TESLA MODEL 3 4 DR RWD

By the way, enjoy a large number of repetitive complaints by our deranged old friend Keef... I really wish they would remove this SPAM....

 

[keydiver]

View attachment 495292 I am still looking for accurate stats.


2018 TESLA MODEL 3 4 DR RWD

Soooooo, does Keef have a real job, or is someone paying him to search every junkyard for wrecked Teslas? What a nut case.

 

[kbM3]

Exactly, all guessing. And that's cool when we make clear that we're guessing. We just have to avoid pretending our guesses are facts. Thanks for doing that.

Data rules!

Kelley Blue Book
2018: 17k miles = $44,113.
2019: 17k miles = $45,510.

Your turn for evidence.

 

[carterm2]

By the way, enjoy +90 complaints by our deranged old friend Keef... I really wish they would remove this SPAM....

The NHTSA is not listing any investigations on the Model 3.

It is worth reading a report, even shows statistics that seem to be ignored by the media... from a 2016 MS crash.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Kelley Blue Book
2018: 17k miles = $44,113.
2019: 17k miles = $45,510.

Your turn for evidence.

You have an odd notion of what constitutes evidence. I have little doubt that the average car that's a year older has depreciated some (and I am not saying I've provided any evidence for that). The claim was made regarding the "model year".

In any case, the particular "fact" doesn't matter. What matters is presenting things you "know" as facts despite there being no evidence for them.

 

[The Accountant]

There is one school of "feeling" based investment traders that gave me some pretty good advice with regards to this. I think you might find it useful.

Sell in chunks. Sell until you don't feel that pressure to sell.

It's probably counter intuitive, but it is a way to train you to listen to your body and feeling more. The subconscious has no way to directly converse with the conscious, so it shows its opinion in feelings.

For a 1 year doubling, the aapl stock did great. It took 6 years for it to rise another 200%.

Great advice.
I tend to acquire a stock position in chunks but typically sell the whole position when exiting. I'll take your advice into my thinking when getting out of a stock.

 

[kbM3]

You have an odd notion of what constitutes evidence. I have little doubt that the average car that's a year older has depreciated some (and I am not saying I've provided any evidence for that). The claim was made regarding the "model year".

In any case, the particular "fact" doesn't matter. What matters is presenting things you "know" as facts despite there being no evidence for them.

Created a thread to continue the argument so as not to pollute the main thread.

Does a later Model Year Tesla affect resale if it’s only built 1 month later

 

[floydboy]

In this case they could be investigating if NoA malfunctioned. If NoA exited the freeway and didn't slow down/stop at the end of the exit it could have contributed to the problem.

But of course the driver was responsible as AP is a driver aid not a driver replacement until FSD is released and approved to be a independent driver.

I'm sorry, I going to have to go full 'HIGHLANDER' mode here and say, "There can be only one" final arbiter of control of the vehicle's operation. As it currently stands, that's the human driver. Even complete failure of NoA has no contribution to this kind of accident. NHSTA's consistent involvement with Tesla accidents, gives me a sense of asking the horse why it bolted when the corral gate was left open. Ask the gate operator!

 

[sundaymorning]

No plan B. Tesla did not rally before (and certainly not after) autonomy day so battery day doesn't worry me. I'll just have to live with seeing you all get rich . I think the current valuation is too high to justify holding. Of course if Tesla grew into it's price then Ill reconsider but that is more of a medium term thing.

TSLA is quite a manic-depressive stock so I try to make my money holding 1-6 months at a time. Has worked ok so far.

I admire your courage, even though I think a slight dip is coming after numbers are release I’m still 90% invested.