Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Mercedes gets a lot more value from fleet emission reductions for sales in Europe starting in 2020 compared to 2019. These were so valuable that it is speculated US sales of the EQC have been delayed to try to capture a better emissions reduction in Europe. I wouldn't put too much emphasis on EQC sales numbers compared to Tesla's until we can see what spring/summer of 2020 brings.

So if I interpret this correctly, you want us to hold our breath for the next 4-6 months?

 

[Singuy]

If there is no manipulation and FUD, tsla should be a $200B cap. Then it can easily dilute 10% to get $20B and suddenly 5 new GF are under construction at the same time, one on every continent.

I don't think so. Sp can't rely on hype alone. Revenue growth and margin improvements are key to a healthy stock. We can't have a 200b market cap at 25 billion revenue a year with 20% margin with scalability being capex intensive unlike software. The multiples given to Tesla is imo pretty generous. Yes it can be a trillion dollars market cap one day but there's plenty of uncertainty there.

 

[ammulder]

Check this out: VW says a lot of interesting things. The software part is slide 14, problem is they don't seem to have the strength to do this themselves (look at the collaboration partners they show on slide 16):

https://www.volkswagenag.com/presen...19/12_december/2019-12-09_Evercore_RS_Ldn.pdf

There are reports that VW wants to go from currently 500 developers to 2000 developers at the end of this year and then on to 10.000. Of course this does not help if your assets, strategy and leadership is not aligned.

OK, but that 500->2000->10000 doesn't pass the sniff test for me. They may be dumb, but they can't be THAT dumb! The presentation linked just above the article says they'll go from 7,000 software experts in 2020 to 10,000+ in 2025, which seems like a much more plausible progression. Some other articles seem to suggest they'll reach this number of developers by combining groups, I guess maybe combining groups who right now are dedicated to their individual brands? It's not totally clear, but they can't think they'll hire up to 20x the team size and make good progress.

 

[AudubonB]

I’ll see your accordion and raise you a trombone. In this video, the farmer is Elon and we are the bulls (ok, cows).

Notice how we can actually see what’s going on from a much further distance, and we are actually intrigued by what’s going on (cuz we be smarter).

Not sure if Elon is a better trombonist.

In other news, I think Iran tensions and increasing oil prices should help with demand in Q1 (although I’m not sure Tesla needs any help there).

Need more cowbell

 

[Krugerrand]

How did I miss the cheese discussion? Dammit, now I'll have to sift through 100 pages.
Help a brother out. If I filter my search with "nacho cheese", will that point me in the right direction?
Not OT, planning on selling my Tesla shares for cheese futures.

Nacho cheese was a prediction of topic to come. Forward thinking cows. Sorry for flustering you.

 

[ggr]

Mod: 18 posts about former member moved to the service thread. Please take all discussion over there. --ggr.

 

[Krugerrand]

Final answer does not make it a correct answer.

If Japan sees vehicle production as a matter of national security (they do) then the support will never end, at least while they can print their own currency and set their own rules on tax and importation. They can create the conditions where the domestic population wants to buy domestic products due to any number of regulatory levers the Japanese government can pull. You see the same thing every day in China.

First principles of this discussion: Japanese national security.

Many of the events you describe may come to pass but the end result is incorrect. Domestic vehicle production in Japan will happen and Toyota being the monster in the industry will be supported.

We’ll see.

 

[Krugerrand]

I believe that's the Mach-E strategy as well.

I thought their strategy was to make the most un-Mustang like car possible.

I can’t wait for the final performance and range numbers on this baby. The fast charging numbers and infrastructure. The OTA update data. Which arcade games will be present. Maybe they’ll stream Hulu?

 

[ammulder]

I can’t wait for the final performance and range numbers on this baby. The fast charging numbers and infrastructure. The OTA update data. Which arcade games will be present. Maybe they’ll stream Hulu?

Hey, now, they can't all be a Tesla. Baby steps.

 

[SebastianR]

OK, but that 500->2000->10000 doesn't pass the sniff test for me. They may be dumb, but they can't be THAT dumb! The presentation linked just above the article says they'll go from 7,000 software experts in 2020 to 10,000+ in 2025, which seems like a much more plausible progression. Some other articles seem to suggest they'll reach this number of developers by combining groups, I guess maybe combining groups who right now are dedicated to their individual brands? It's not totally clear, but they can't think they'll hire up to 20x the team size and make good progress.

Here is the Google Translate of the relevant parts:

"The VW-OS is planned as a platform solution that will be used in all future models of all 12 group brands. The VW-OS should concentrate on the provision of all basic functions. Non-critical solutions are set up as a kind of app.

To this end, VW is building a new agile software unit that should be able to process at least 60 percent of the software projects itself by 2025. So far, only ten percent have been paid in-house, ninety percent have been bought in externally. Volkswagen expects to have to expand the development unit to up to 10,000 developers.

VW currently only employs around 500 developers who are to form the nucleus of the new unit. By 2020 there should be 2,000. In addition to the classic acquisition of workers on the market, the group also relies on company takeovers and participations."

Apparently part of this goes back to this article in Ars Technica
Volkswagen’s bold plan to create a new car operating system

I think some of their intentions are the right ones. I don't want to discount that. But the failed software of the ID3 shows me, that things have not been working out to their best yet. More (rumours) over at TFF (Software topic a bit mixed into the rest): Volkswagen ID.3 • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde - either way, I do think that Tesla is much further ahead of the rest of the pack when it comes to software.

 

[Krugerrand]

Hey, now, they can't all be a Tesla. Baby steps.

They could be a whole lot closer, though. Tesla literally showed them what to do and how. They can reverse engineer the car. Yep, some secret sauce isn’t available to them, but they aren’t even getting close. They can partner with Tesla on charging network at the very least, but probably on other aspects too.

 

[ammulder]

Here is the Google Translate of the relevant parts:

"VW currently only employs around 500 developers who are to form the nucleus of the new unit. By 2020 there should be 2,000. In addition to the classic acquisition of workers on the market, the group also relies on company takeovers and participations."

I know, but the actual presentation from VW linked in the same post says 7,000 software experts in 2020. Either they're not both correct, or the "new unit" is a subset of the "software experts" -- but I'm not convinced we have the full picture in any case. It would make no sense to take a team of 500 and just scale it up to 10,000 and figure you'll be good.

...not that it exactly makes sense to manage the project based on lines of code, or plan to deliver 50x the complexity of the F-35 fighter software...

 

[lklundin]

Quote from a Volkswagen manager responsible for "Digital Car & Services":

Surely this VW manager secretly dreams of being a manager at Tesla GF4...

 

[Skryll]

I thought their strategy was to make the most un-Mustang like car possible.

I can’t wait for the final performance and range numbers on this baby. The fast charging numbers and infrastructure. The OTA update data. Which arcade games will be present. Maybe they’ll stream Hulu?

it’s a compliance car, and the strategy of calling it a mustang while looking not like a mustang is likely anti selling to the existing ICE customer base so they can sell more high margins high maintenance legacy cars to them.

 

[RFernatt]

...It's not totally clear, but they can't think they'll hire up to 20x the team size and make good progress.

LOLs for VW. Some VW EVP is thinking "easy, peasy, just throw more cooks in the kitchen! What could go wrong?"

 

[pz1975]

LOLs for VW. Some VW EVP is thinking "easy, peasy, just throw more cooks in the kitchen! What could go wrong?"

Okay now show me the one with 20,000 people.

 

[Wnuk]

Thrilled to finally have joined the ownership family, thanks in part to TSLA

 

[dgodfrey]

I thought their strategy was to make the most un-Mustang like car possible.

I can’t wait for the final performance and range numbers on this baby. The fast charging numbers and infrastructure. The OTA update data. Which arcade games will be present. Maybe they’ll stream Hulu?

I saw somewhere maybe prodigy.net that it was going to have Myspace pre-loaded. Alerts were going to be pop-ups in the HUD.
Seriously though, I don't know if it was here that I saw a chart of efficiencies comparing all existing and soon to be EV's and Mach-E was scrapping the bottom of the barrel.
I consider these sales of competitors that really aren't, (competitive that is) "spite sales".
There's a member on the Bolt forum that is convinced that Tesla is single handedly destroying the planet. I should add, he drives a Mirai. These people would rather walk than drive a Tesla.

Oh happy Day!
Is that Tesla hater still around?

 

[Beltsbear]

it’s a compliance car, and the strategy of calling it a mustang while looking not like a mustang is likely anti selling to the existing ICE customer base so they can sell more high margins high maintenance legacy cars to them.

Disagree. The Mach-E is pretty compelling, and they intend to ramp production well beyond compliance. While the Y does almost everything better, the Mach-E screws up very little. It certainly needs the $7500 fed incentive to compete with the Y, but with the incentive, it does indeed compete. Ford could be the number two electric car provider in the USA if Nissan does not step it up again. Ford will also be limited by battery supply as the main production constraint.

 

[Tslynk67]

Wtf happened to this Greg Wester on Twitter? Used to be my favorite Twitter account. He sounds like someone who sold their entire position in the $300s and became bitter and jealous of the breakout

Greg Wester on Twitter

He seems to flip from bull to bear and back every 6 months, I haven't worked it out either...