Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
... and cut to Linette Lopez tweeting how it is getting increasing hard to believe she still has a job.
Cheers!
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Cheers!
jeewee3000
Active Member
Hi all,
Since some member posted earlier that Elon said something along the lines of "Tesla is betting the company on robotaxi's" during Autonomy Day, I went back and rewatched most of it.
However you feel about FSD, the presentation contains many little tidbits that are telling about the core business of Tesla. Since I was delighted to pick up on these (again), I thought I'd share.
Production rates
A lot has been said regarding production ramp. The chip guy mentioned that the cost reduction of having their own NN computer in cars times "a million cars a year" really adds up. He was referring to an anual production rate of Tesla vehicles, which we have not reached yet. Ipso facto: in 2020 or at the latest 2021 Tesla will produce 1 million cars a year. (By 2022 the next iteration of the FSD computer should be ready according to Elon ("three years from now" = april 2022))
Later on, Elon mentioned a Tesla fleet of "millions, tens of millions" of cars. Again it is clear to me he is envisioning where Tesla will be in a few years time and he is seeing it big.
In 2020 1M cars produced might not be possible, but ending 2020 on 1M annual production rate might get close. Fremont +GF1 = at least 360k (look at 2019) and China should match that. That's 700k cars in 2020. Any improvements and we'll end rather close to a million cars a year. (Personally I'd say we'll reach 1M capacity when GF4 goes online, which should be by the end of 2021 at the latest).
GF5 is still a question mark, so I won't speculate. But GF1/Fremont, GF3 and GF4 could produce 500k cars annually each by 2022, when the next FSD chip is built in to the cars. (They are made in Samsung, Texas, I forgot that detail) So in 2022 I'm guessing 1,5 million yearly production.
Elon did add the following regarding future production ramp:
In 2013 they produced 23k cars, in 2018 250k cars, which is a 10x increase "in five years" (it's actually in six years). Elon expects the same increase to happen over "the next five years", so (own calculation) around 2,5 million cars per year produced by 2023/2024.
Which models will get produced when?
I've seen some recent discussion regarding semi and model Y production. I think the Autonomy day was pretty straightforward about this:
2020 is indeed the year of the model Y and the semi. Semi might be postponed a bit more, since getting profitability and FSD up is more important in the short-term, and Model Y/3 are the cars to make that happen.
After semi there is of course Cybertruck, and after that just robotaxi's without steering wheels. Tesla expects to own their own fleet of robotaxi's counting roughly one million vehicles. Robotaxi = current model at first but later on without steering wheel/pedals, costing 25k to make, but worth 200k to Tesla.
Regarding FSD
Elon broke down FSD in three steps:
1) feature complete = FSD software can be activated anywhere and (theoretically) drive the whole trip. In april Elon expected this by end of 2019.
2) Tesla approved FSD = the point at which Tesla believes it is safe to fall asleep behind the wheel. In april Elon expected this by Q2 2020. (!)
3) Regulator approved FSD = the point at which FSD is allowed by law since it is believed to be more safe than humans and/or safe enough to be used by the public. In april Elon expected this by end of 2020.
The feature complete deadline (by end of 2019) was not met, so I'm keeping my eyes peeled for how many quarters this is delayed.
I had forgotten Elon's agressive timeline (Q2 for Tesla-approved FSD, crazy) but was amazed with the confidence with which he uttered it. I don't want to start an entire "will FSD happen"-thread, but I do believe Tesla-approved FSD in the USA (big emphasis) could be as close as early 2021.
Adam Jonas asked Elon (3:42:10): Can you share with us how much Tesla is spending on Autopilot or autonomous technology by order of magnitude on annual basis?
Elon replied: "it's basically our entire expense structure." (silence)
This is not betting the company though, since earlier in the Autonomy Day he said: during robotaxi ramp-up we expect to be cash flow neutral. After FSD is turned on (=regulatory approval) we will be hugely cash flow positive from then onward.
The above might be some random thoughts put together, but I thought you (TMC) would be interested. I am sticking with my investment, that's for sure!
Since some member posted earlier that Elon said something along the lines of "Tesla is betting the company on robotaxi's" during Autonomy Day, I went back and rewatched most of it.
However you feel about FSD, the presentation contains many little tidbits that are telling about the core business of Tesla. Since I was delighted to pick up on these (again), I thought I'd share.
Production rates
A lot has been said regarding production ramp. The chip guy mentioned that the cost reduction of having their own NN computer in cars times "a million cars a year" really adds up. He was referring to an anual production rate of Tesla vehicles, which we have not reached yet. Ipso facto: in 2020 or at the latest 2021 Tesla will produce 1 million cars a year. (By 2022 the next iteration of the FSD computer should be ready according to Elon ("three years from now" = april 2022))
Later on, Elon mentioned a Tesla fleet of "millions, tens of millions" of cars. Again it is clear to me he is envisioning where Tesla will be in a few years time and he is seeing it big.
In 2020 1M cars produced might not be possible, but ending 2020 on 1M annual production rate might get close. Fremont +GF1 = at least 360k (look at 2019) and China should match that. That's 700k cars in 2020. Any improvements and we'll end rather close to a million cars a year. (Personally I'd say we'll reach 1M capacity when GF4 goes online, which should be by the end of 2021 at the latest).
GF5 is still a question mark, so I won't speculate. But GF1/Fremont, GF3 and GF4 could produce 500k cars annually each by 2022, when the next FSD chip is built in to the cars. (They are made in Samsung, Texas, I forgot that detail) So in 2022 I'm guessing 1,5 million yearly production.
Elon did add the following regarding future production ramp:
In 2013 they produced 23k cars, in 2018 250k cars, which is a 10x increase "in five years" (it's actually in six years). Elon expects the same increase to happen over "the next five years", so (own calculation) around 2,5 million cars per year produced by 2023/2024.
Which models will get produced when?
I've seen some recent discussion regarding semi and model Y production. I think the Autonomy day was pretty straightforward about this:
2020 is indeed the year of the model Y and the semi. Semi might be postponed a bit more, since getting profitability and FSD up is more important in the short-term, and Model Y/3 are the cars to make that happen.
After semi there is of course Cybertruck, and after that just robotaxi's without steering wheels. Tesla expects to own their own fleet of robotaxi's counting roughly one million vehicles. Robotaxi = current model at first but later on without steering wheel/pedals, costing 25k to make, but worth 200k to Tesla.
Regarding FSD
Elon broke down FSD in three steps:
1) feature complete = FSD software can be activated anywhere and (theoretically) drive the whole trip. In april Elon expected this by end of 2019.
2) Tesla approved FSD = the point at which Tesla believes it is safe to fall asleep behind the wheel. In april Elon expected this by Q2 2020. (!)
3) Regulator approved FSD = the point at which FSD is allowed by law since it is believed to be more safe than humans and/or safe enough to be used by the public. In april Elon expected this by end of 2020.
The feature complete deadline (by end of 2019) was not met, so I'm keeping my eyes peeled for how many quarters this is delayed.
I had forgotten Elon's agressive timeline (Q2 for Tesla-approved FSD, crazy) but was amazed with the confidence with which he uttered it. I don't want to start an entire "will FSD happen"-thread, but I do believe Tesla-approved FSD in the USA (big emphasis) could be as close as early 2021.
Adam Jonas asked Elon (3:42:10): Can you share with us how much Tesla is spending on Autopilot or autonomous technology by order of magnitude on annual basis?
Elon replied: "it's basically our entire expense structure." (silence)
This is not betting the company though, since earlier in the Autonomy Day he said: during robotaxi ramp-up we expect to be cash flow neutral. After FSD is turned on (=regulatory approval) we will be hugely cash flow positive from then onward.
The above might be some random thoughts put together, but I thought you (TMC) would be interested. I am sticking with my investment, that's for sure!
The manipulators are launching their MMD as if it’s business as usual, completely oblivious of the freight train of Q4 results, early Model Y launch, massive Chinese 3 sales, FSD recognition, FCA credits, solar roof, Battery Investor Day and S&P 500 inclusion that is going to run them over in 2020.
I think that is almost certain, though we have no way to know if it will be AD .8, .9 or 1.0.
What is certain is Elon rarely if ever gives up on a large scale leap forward concept he's conceived based on first principles thinking. He threw the long pass with M3 and missed. He's likely now to just grind it out yards year by year, GF by GF until machine that builds the machine is one more competitive advantage that no other auto company can touch.
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Elon has a G650 typical long range cruise Mach .85, initial Cruise altitude 41000 FT, gradually rising to 51000 ft as fuel burns off. Typical cruise speed also can rise substantially if fuel load/range/winds permit.
China Eastern flies a B777-300ER on that route which has a typical cruise altitude of 35,000ft and typical long range cruise about mach .84. The altitude rises as fuel burns off but typical Mach speeds remain more or less constant.
Both of them go faster, fly higher when conditions are right but the G650ER will always be flying higher and going faster.
Again FWIW, almost all business jets, even the smallest like Cessna 525 and HondaJet, fly well above commercial traffic. Those typically fly around 41,000 feet on longer trips so encounter only other business airplanes. The flying is smoother up there too, and winds are more predictable.
FWIW
Elon has a G650 typical long range cruise Mach .85, initial Cruise altitude 41000 FT, gradually rising to 51000 ft as fuel burns off. Typical cruise speed also can rise substantially if fuel load/range/winds permit.
China Eastern flies a B777-300ER on that route which has a typical cruise altitude of 35,000ft and typical long range cruise about mach .84. The altitude rises as fuel burns off but typical Mach speeds remain more or less constant.
Both of them go faster, fly higher when conditions are right but the G650ER will always be flying higher and going faster.
Again FWIW, almost all business jets, even the smallest like Cessna 525 and HondaJet, fly well above commercial traffic. Those typically fly around 41,000 feet on longer trips so encounter only other business airplanes. The flying is smoother up there too, and winds are more predictable.
How does Tesla at an $80 billion market cap compare to companies like Apple and Amazon when they hit $80 billion?
TL;DR: Tesla has similar revenues, faster growth, and lower profits. Overall, $80 billion seems reasonable.
Understanding Tesla Valuation: Is Tesla’s Market Cap Too High Or Low?
TL;DR: Tesla has similar revenues, faster growth, and lower profits. Overall, $80 billion seems reasonable.
Understanding Tesla Valuation: Is Tesla’s Market Cap Too High Or Low?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
We may know more by Jan 7 (or on the 2019Q4 CC), but it looks increasingly likely we can add GF3 Model Y first production to that impressive list of 2020 milestones.
Cheers!
Earl of Frunkpuppy has been having a great time recently prodding TeslaCharts over his podcast's falling ratings
Earl of Frunkpuppy on Twitter
Definitely don't rate his podcast; his falling ratings have already been causing him to launch into even more conspiracy theories
Earl of Frunkpuppy on Twitter
Definitely don't rate his podcast; his falling ratings have already been causing him to launch into even more conspiracy theories
Phase 3 is underground. Can't see it on the drone videos.
Earl of Frunkpuppy has been having a great time recently prodding TeslaCharts over his podcast's falling ratings
Earl of Frunkpuppy on Twitter
View attachment 497049
Definitely don't rate his podcast; his falling ratings have already been causing him to launch into even more conspiracy theories
I do believe that a podcast can only be rated once - it's per channel, not per cast, am I right or wrong?
Whackamole started early this week... I think they're trying to balance covering against the negative macro...
Correct - and you'll need to be on a system that can actually play the podcast in order to be able to rate it. AFAIK.
So definitely don't do that.
These are the people on the other side of our trades. The fact that they are so terrified of any dissenting opinions adds even more weight to my bullishness on TSLA. What a bunch of snowflakes. They have literally created a safe space for all their paranoia and conspiracy nonsense.
I like when an analyst puts up an unrealistic expectation, and then downgrades their rating based on the miss.
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The Accountant
Active Member
Per the article, Amazon had profits of 1.2B in 2010 when their market cap was at $88B.
Interesting to note; Amazon had subsequent years with losses and achieved a higher market cap.
- Amazon lost 39m in 2012 and their market cap was $118B
- Amazon lost $241m in 2014 and their market cap was $143B
Investors understood the company was investing to drive future value.
Amazon has a market cap of 941B today. The company grew more than 10x in 10 years.
Hmmm what company today has the potential to do this?
even Russ Mitchell shilling for the intellectually brain dead:Earl of Frunkpuppy has been having a great time recently prodding TeslaCharts over his podcast's falling ratings
mugen turbo on Twitter
Insideev is a sell out. Nowadays it's specialized in FUDs and dashcam footage. I frequently click on SA to see the sugar show in the comments but refuse to click on anything insideev. I'm just disgusted.
Swampgator
Active Member
Electrek too. Not much good out there anymore.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
1 hr Report:
Shortzes have managed to contain the Open pop, likely on forced covering (margin called) and general enthusiasm based on the 2020Q4 P&D report.
SP was whip-sawed thru 3 cycles between 445-400. Good news is that the 'buy-wall' at $440.00 held firm during 3 attempts to drive the SP below that level.
SP has now steadied up into a grind around Friday's Closing price ($443.01)
Trading volume after 1 hr was 3.7M shares, a respectably high trading rate given no fresh news.
Hopefully there's some Press from Shanghai It's just before Midnight there right now. I'm expecting a fleet of buses to carry a thousand new Model 3 owners to the big newly created parking lot for an 'Under the Big Top' style mass delivery event. I want PIX!
Cheers!
Shortzes have managed to contain the Open pop, likely on forced covering (margin called) and general enthusiasm based on the 2020Q4 P&D report.
SP was whip-sawed thru 3 cycles between 445-400. Good news is that the 'buy-wall' at $440.00 held firm during 3 attempts to drive the SP below that level.
SP has now steadied up into a grind around Friday's Closing price ($443.01)
Trading volume after 1 hr was 3.7M shares, a respectably high trading rate given no fresh news.
Hopefully there's some Press from Shanghai It's just before Midnight there right now. I'm expecting a fleet of buses to carry a thousand new Model 3 owners to the big newly created parking lot for an 'Under the Big Top' style mass delivery event. I want PIX!
Cheers!
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