Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[woodisgood]

Today I learned: At family get-togethers, never bring up politics...






and options-trading.

This got juicy. Do tell.

 

[shootformoon]

Elon will start selling when tsla pays >10% dividend yearly.

and yes, by then tsla will face multiple antitrust lawsuits and Buffet(if he can still work) will start buying tsla, just like he is buying aapl now.

Elon will surely one day begin selling some modest % of his Tesla stock each year to help fund Mars exploration/colonization. Tesla isn't going to die if he slowly divests this way. If Tesla valuation continues increasing as we expect, he could raise very large amounts each year without going below a stock % that maintains his control.

 

[ZeApelido]

This got juicy. Do tell.

The Queen of Eyjafjallajökull emasculated the Howard Schultz impersonator.

 

[Cattledog]

Listen please guys wtf please. All is well. $SPY 420 and TSLA $800 by June. Just believe!!!

Hmmmmm, I can't recall ever seeing you and TrendTrader posting at the same time on the investor forum...

 

[Bobfitz1]

During the presentation, he was very gracious to the workers and let them know how much he appreciated them and wanted them to be able to be themselves while working. He said he knows some people like to do quirky things and make their workstations a little quirky. He let them know he understood and shrugged his shoulders while saying, "I mean, well, look at me?" The workers respect Elon giving them their autonomy and make it so they WANT to do a good job. It also sends the message that one worker shouldn't pick on another worker just because they look or act different. Or are nerdy, or not cool. It's to be accepted. Pre-empting employee personality conflicts, making things fun and fine-tuning what it means to work at Tesla G3 are all signs of a brilliant leader.

100% spot on. I remember being surprised and impressed several years back while watching a SpaceX launch where there were shots of many employees watching the event. Including one fellow who was sporting one of those spikey crazy glue mohawks. It made me think that what Elon looks for are the smartest, hardest working people. If some want to express themselves in unconventional ways I doubt he cares as long as they are able to get the job done.

 

[elasalle]

Mohamed A. El-Erian on Twitter

 

[ZsoZso]

some have speculated that TSLA is overpriced, since it is priced higher than the 20th century car companies.

If that comparison made sense, wouldn’t we need to add the value of the dealers to the value?

as a wild guess, the average dealer has a value of $10M, including inventory. For Chevy alone, with ~5000 dealers, wouldn’t this add another $50B to the value?

That's a good start, but why stop there ?
1. Tesla is not only automaker, but also distributor of the cars, so include the dealership network value (as suggested above)
2. Tesla also provides fueling infrastructure with the Supercharger network, so for fools fuel counterpart include the gas station chain value
3. Tesla also has the former Solarcity branch to produce the electricity sold in SC network by PV systems, i.e. a significant utility company, so for FF car equivalent include the value of oil producing company value
4. Tesla also offers car insurance, so include that value too

Once all these included the TSLA valuation will look still very low as is...

ps: I will not include future potentials, such as Robotaxi valuation as that would drag in some unrealistic Uber-value, plus it is not yet achieved technologically (FSD).

 

[Thekiwi]

Reports of a passenger 737 airliner crashing in Tehran - could just be an unfortunate coincidence...

 

[tschmidty]

This got juicy. Do tell.

So trolling through this thread for the actual informative posts has become/has been ridiculously painful. Are there options to this forum where we ignore useless posts like this one. Even 'filter everything less than 10 words' would be super helpful for the people looking for actual information as opposed to whatever value this comment was supposed to add.

EDIT: I guess the answer is just to go hog wild with the ignore list, but hate to block someone that may post some thing actually insightful, but I guess you play the odds and I'll take my chances.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Admittedly I have very little experience with trading such volatile securities. But it seems to me that there is a good chance that the current upwards trend may continue for a while, powered by shorts being squeezed, institutions deciding that now is the time to buy or whatever.

So today I rolled my Jan. 17 320$ calls that were up 420% to something with a lot more leverage, Sep.17 700$ calls, which have expiry beyond my other calls.

About the only thing I feel sure about right now with my options trading, is that I have to learn fast.

PS. With a lot more international sales, how could Tesla possibly report earnings (very) early?

That _may_ work amazing, but please remember that Elon doesn't care for traders and option holders. I had few expensive lessons on the subject.

 

[Beltsbear]

Elon will surely one day begin selling some modest % of his Tesla stock each year to help fund Mars exploration/colonization. Tesla isn't going to die if he slowly divests this way. If Tesla valuation continues increasing as we expect, he could raise very large amounts each year without going below a stock % that maintains his control.

Starlink is going to give Elon/SpaceX all of the money they need for Mars. $49 a month times a few million to start. I wish I could invest directly in SpaceX.

 

[Jack6591]

This is a great day to refocus and do all that we can to advance renewable energy and sustainable transportation.

I know, I’ll put in a buy order for TSLA.

 

[StealthP3D]

I have been through many cycles before...the euphoria that Ive seen on this MB Ive seen many times...yes we are all making money and having fun but this kind if euphoria puts me on full alert...I called 480 as a temporary top earlier today and hedged with bitcoin and glad I did...Iran type of news will firm up safety plays like gold, oil, bitcoin.

$480 as a "temporary top"? I'm LMFAO at that for two reasons.

1) Never got close to $480
2) What's the significance of a "temporary" top? How long would it last (when it hits it)?

And it's NORMAL for shareholders to display pleasure when a primary holding is killing it. It would be unusual if shareholders were seeing outstanding gains and they DIDN'T display pleasure. If that puts you on "full alert" you are going to get stopped out of the longest and most profitable bull runs to ever grace the public markets! In other words, that's the dumbest alert signal I've ever heard of. All it can signal is that a stock has had well above average gains. It has no predictive power for how long the gains will continue.

 

[Zaxxon]

And gas stations, and the oil companies that supply them.

And the finance arms of the automakers, half of their suppliers, a small (for now) insurance company, a medium-sized utility, etc.

 

[Evergreeen]

Reports of a passenger 737 airliner crashing in Tehran - could just be an unfortunate coincidence...

Trump's not going to be able to make a crazy statement in the morning, it'll have to be combined with condolences. Iran will be distracted for a while. Boeing however is absolutely hosed.

 

[StealthP3D]

Starlink is going to give Elon/SpaceX all of the money they need for Mars. $49 a month times a few million to start. I wish I could invest directly in SpaceX.

Mars colonies have a way of costing more than expected. Much more. If he does it he will need most of his SpaceX holdings, most of his Tesla holdings and probably a few other, like-minded billionaires and at least half of the 8,000 colonists to pay their own way. The other half will have indispensable skills. Or something like that.

 

[3lon4mars]

Not a new poster, but wish to remain hidden.....
THANK YOU TSLAQ

 

[Drumheller]

Is that saying you grew 20,000 to 1.6mm in 3 months and a week?

If so... wow!

 

[StealthP3D]

some have speculated that TSLA is overpriced, since it is priced higher than the 20th century car companies.

If that comparison made sense, wouldn’t we need to add the value of the dealers to the value?

as a wild guess, the average dealer has a value of $10M, including inventory. For Chevy alone, with ~5000 dealers, wouldn’t this add another $50B to the value?

Unsold inventory is a PROBLEM with the old fashioned OEM's, not a net asset. They take loans to buy them. So that would just be more debt on the books if dealers were lumped in with the OEM's. Tesla sells the cars as fast as they make them and they haven't even paid for the steel, aluminum, copper wire, glass, etc. until after most of them are sold (due to supplier contracts that allow for payment within 60-90 days).

Another difference is Tesla leases their delivery and service centers, OEM dealerships tend to own theirs. I don't think it's productive to think Tesla should be valued in a similar manner, primarily because Tesla makes the cars of the future, the others have a bunch of stranded assets (engine machine shops and assembly plants, transmission manufacturing and gear cutting machinery, etc, etc, etc.) and their sales are declining. I'm not willing to assume they will suddenly be successful mass market EV makers and the market apparently agrees with me. Their valuations would be MUCH higher if they had bright futures. So I don't know why so many talking heads get hung up on the relative valuations. The old fashioned OEM's have been struggling (more like feast or famine) for decades. Their debt loads are huge.

Tesla is nimble and lean, they are old, slow and bloated. Of course Tesla has a brighter future and should be valued for that.

 

[JRP3]

The professional dancer posted by JRP3 just gave me the creeps with all his weird muscle twitches. I couldn't enjoy it and it seemed he wasn't enjoying it as much as he was just showing off. I made it about 30 seconds.

I'm hurt that you don't appreciate my moves.