Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

TSLA meanwhile just set a new all-time-high in the premarket, on a strong burst of volume, the new ATH is $472.20.

TSLA now up to $474.60 $475.13 on another burst of buying, a new ATH again, +1.2% over yesterday's close. There were no notable macro moves, so this is entirely Tesla and TSLA specific price action.

 

[ggr]

Mod: Whether or not Elon was a Tesla founder, the conversation about it is old, and we're not going to rehash it here yet again. Stop. --ggr.

 

[mars_or_bust]

Tesla's mission statement is to save the planet and its species. Not destroy it to make a faster profit.

The headline is click-baitey though. Tesla will simply get the permit to move the bats and do so. I don't see how animal protection laws are "crazy".

OK, after cooling down a bit:

I personally, in my position, have unfortunately a lot of experience with the way EU works, its bureaucracy, including Germany. In many aspects it is OK, but in some aspects it is extremely unnecessary burdensome, and prevents many many initiatives. In that regard the Brexit crowd had a point (the only point, the other stuff was complete rubbish, and that point could have been addressed I believe successfully while being part of the EU).

It is not a coincidence that Germany has effectively no now companies since WWII, that it has only 2! unicorns (while the US and China have more than a 100). Stuff gets blocked everywhere, all the time, for all kinds of reasons, good or bad.

This land was checked before it was bought. It is a new, human planted, forest. I am 100% sure that no significant bat population is there - it would have been found before. If there are a few bats, in normal circumstances they could easily be moved - a delay of a few days - why make additional red tape necessary for that? Sure, Tesla can ask for a permit - but this now depends on a whole slew of other factors, many of them not transparent, and many of them have nothing to do with bat survival. If this happened in Munich, the delay could easily be not granted. But the good thing is this is Berlin, with a task force set up (Tesla was insisting on this, they know what they are getting into), so it might get pushed through easily - I certainly hope so.

 

[Mkorpal]

OT:

TWA800 was before the Atlanta Olymics in July 1996. That was the suppected shootdn.

The post-9/11 incident was AA587 Jamaica Bay, Queens, NYC a few weeks after 9/11. That's why you STILL have to take your shoes off when you go thru Arpt Security (suspected shoe bmb)

We now return you to your regularly scheduled episode of Kabuki Theatre

/OT

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock Real Time Stock Quotes

$471.05 +1.99 0.42%
as of 06:41 EST
*Real-Time - data as of 1/8/2020

MARGIN CALLS CONTINUE...

Um, that is not what happened to AA587.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Not sure whether this Twitter rumor from yesterday got posted already:

Mickey Du on Twitter

"Visited 2 $TSLA China stores. According to reps, Tesla doing 1000+ DAILY orders across China after recent price decrease of SR+ to sub 300k RMB after subsidies. China, world’s largest auto market already supply constrained + exciting 2H 2020 ahead as GF3 Shanghai ramps production"​

So it appears many Tesla buyers expected a price drop, and once it was delivered they pulled the trigger.

(But beware the triple layers of hearsay before assuming anything about Q1 demand. )

With all the rumors of China's Q1 demand, even with the GF3 chugging away, I wonder how that'll affect the typical Q1 slump. I mean, maybe they'll ship more vehicles to EU for the quarter to play catch up to the smaller and forgotten ones *coughIcelandcough*.

Although, with more delivery items than production each quarter for the last few, they may need to back up their stock in the galleries and stores around the states!

 

[Artful Dodger]

According to a tweet by Kelvin Yang, there are reports that Tesla is selling 1,000 cars per day in China. No other details. Kelvin Yang on Twitter

He's referring to the online order rate: (which increased after the MIC price reduction)

Source: m.weibo.cn/1642088277/4458475851537364

国产Model 3现在每天的预订量已经高达1000余辆

MIC model 3's daily orders is in excess of 1000​

Additionally, other social media sources are saying 2020Q1 is already sold out. That of course doesn't tell us how MANY cars will be produced, but its still a postive for TSLA.

Cheers!

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

a random thought re: the airport car fire.
How amazeballs would it be if in the future, FSD teslas detected the nearby fire and drove themselves somewhere else to safety...then returned after the fire was put out. Holiday makers would return from holiday to find a carpark full of burned out piles of ash, and a few pristine teslas in-between .
Bonus points if the first tesla to detect the fire drove to the nearest fire-station to get help

 

[kcveins]

Tesla’s hitting new highs, and Jim Cramer is ‘dumbfounded’ that it hasn’t gone higher
PUBLISHED TUE, JAN 7 20206:58 PM ESTUPDATED TUE, JAN 7 20207:04 PM EST

Tyler Clifford@_TYLERTHETYLER_




KEY POINTS

• CNBC’s Jim Cramer said he is “dumbfounded” that Tesla is not worth more than its $84.5 billion market value.
• “Tesla has growth in spades; of course investors will pay up for it. GM has barely any growth. Ford’s actually shrinking. Nobody wants to pay up for stagnation,” the “Mad Money” host said.
• “Wake me up when Tesla’s double the value of Ford and GM put together,” Cramer said. “That’s when I might take [a] pause in my bullishness.”

 

[sparcs]

definitely not what i was expecting to wake up to:

477.30 +8.24 (1.76%)
Pre-Market: 7:42AM EST

 

[kcveins]

Forgot the link

Tesla's hitting new highs, and Jim Cramer is 'dumbfounded' that it hasn't gone higher

 

[elasalle]

Morten Grove on Twitter

 

[guidooo]

It is not a coincidence that Germany has effectively no now companies since WWII, that it has only 2! unicorns (while the US and China have more than a 100).

Then why does the link below mentions 3 German Unicorns ? It even doesn't date back as far as WWII.

10 European startups which recently reached unicorn status | EU-Startups

 

[Artful Dodger]

Whole lotta shakin' goin' on... the "Pre-Squeeze" continues in today's Pre-market

TSLA Pre-market:
$477.78 + 8.72 +1.85%
07:45 EST​

To me, it looks like Brokers are forcing buy-to-cover orders on their short clients before other market participants can begin trading in the Pre-market at 08:00 am EST hmm...

 

[KarenRei]

Bonus points if the first tesla to detect the fire drove to the nearest fire-station to get help

Tesla: *HONK!*!!

Fireman: "What is it..." (looks at license plate) "...Lassie-la?"

Tesla: *HOOOONK*! *HONK HONK*!!!

Fireman: "What? Timmie's in trouble?"

Tesla: *HOOOOOOOONK!*!!

Fireman: "Quick, take me to him!"

 

[Chocochip]

Bonus points if the first tesla to detect the fire drove to the nearest fire-station to get help

"What is it, Tessie? What? Timmy slipped and fell down the $370 well?"

L.E.: I see that @KarenRei decided to just not give me a freakin' break!

 

[T@oo]

400 effing 78

 

[elasalle]

Whole lotta shakin' goin' on... the "Pre-Squeeze" continues in today's Pre-market

TSLA Pre-market:
$475.94 +6.88 +1.46%
07:40 EST​

With All the Macro news from yesterday evening, Shorts are waking up into a DayMare (just made up word from nightmare)

 

[Fact Checking]

With all the rumors of China's Q1 demand, even with the GF3 chugging away, I wonder how that'll affect the typical Q1 slump. I mean, maybe they'll ship more vehicles to EU for the quarter to play catch up to the smaller and forgotten ones *coughIcelandcough*.

So I think Q1'2020 should show a nice year-over-year increase to Q1'2019, which is the fair comparison.

Quarter-to-quarter I'd expect deliveries to drop relative to Q4'2019, with a few headwinds and tailwinds:

• Headwinds:
  • Netherlands might drop temporarily by 15k deliveries. Leasing companies loaded up on Model 3's and won't buy new ones. Private owners might buy new cars but certainly much fewer than in Q4.
  • The seasonal pattern for Q4->Q1 demand is a -20% drop by default. That's a drop of ~20k units, worldwide.
  • Inventories are depleted worldwide and need to be re-filled. Lack of showroom models or test drive units might mean a lost sale, etc.
• Tailwinds:
  • The UK BIK surge might be big in March, but it's unclear to what extent Tesla is willing to roll the dice and make 10k-20k UK version Model 3's they couldn't be sending elsewhere if they are not delivered in Q1.
  • Tesla clearly starved some other European markets like Norway in Q4, so those might absorb a few thousand more units over their Q4 levels.
  • The FCA ZEV deal could earn some significant extra income at 100% profit margins, even if Q1 deliveries drop. Maybe Tesla will drop a few hints about that in the Q4 conference call, when they provide 2020 guidance?
  • China GF3 might deliver 10k-25k units, depending on the speed of the ramp-up, and depending on how much disruption the Chinese New Year will cause. Officially the holiday is "only" 7 days long, but many factories shut down for a full month. When GF3 was constructed it was a great gesture to Tesla that the construction firms worked even during the Chinese New Year - this should not be expected of Tesla employee line workers.
    • To estimate Q1 GF3 production: assuming all work stops from January 25 to February 1:
    • 
    • I'd expect the second shift to not be started until February, and then it will take time to train the workers and for them to ramp up. So effective workdays would be 18 days in January, 1-shift, 10 1-shift days in February, 10 2-shift days in February and 20 2-shift days in March (to leave time to deliver units). If a single shift can make about 200 cars sustained, then this is a GF3 production baseline of up to 18k units.
  • South Korea is a wildcard: generous incentives but not much delivery throughput by Tesla yet. Unclear whether they'd send a full ship and hope to deliver all units.

Overall I'd be very happy with Q3 level deliveries in Q1 (97k units), but lower deliveries down to 80k are entirely possible as well, depending on how the forces above play out. We'll see as the quarter progresses, China in particular appears to be very rumor-happy, so we'll get various hints I believe.

 

[Krugerrand]

This may not be politically correct, and I am saying this with all due respect regarding the all important mating preferences of speckled bats and fornicating migrating birds or whatever, but this is more than silly, and one of the reasons the EU is stuck going nowhere, wondering why the US and China, with all their flaws, are kicking their ass in technology and economy.

Tesla’s run-in with endangered bats could delay plans for Gigafactory 4

The EU is so crazy that this may not even be dirty tricks by VW or the other pre extinction dinosaurii, but genuine local madness.

I expect that such crap will delay GF4 by at least a couple months. Not great, not terrible. But unnecesary. And not surprising.

EDIT: P.R. wise, this delay, if it actually becomes significant (say 3- 6 months) could actually be a great boost for Tesla China sales, and even for Tesla reputation in Europe, as Germany will prove to be incompetent and backward and probably engaging in stalling tactics, diminishing the German car brands, making the feel about them a lot less high tech and a lot more old school and boring and desperate and dying.

Forest ants? We’re capturing forest ants to relocate them? ANTS?! Relocate them where? To the other side of the road?

Man, I sure hope they’re also capturing and relocating all the earthworms and beetles and whatever other creatures live in the soil.

 

[KarenRei]

View attachment 497873


Morten Grove on Twitter

Not surprised. South Korea is another insatiable market that Must Be Fed