Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

GF4 to have a fancy foundry. 61 Tonne machine with injection moulding.

Gigafactory4 on Twitter

Any Germans want to give a better translation?

I did read it but could not find any indications that its the 70 to 1 castigates machine other than the 61 tons pressure but even that is not one. Not an expert in that technology though.

 

[sparcs]

GF4 to have a fancy foundry. 61 Tonne machine with injection moulding.

Gigafactory4 on Twitter

Any Germans want to give a better translation?

Google Translate: 3.1.2 A002 casting.pdf

interesting. are we seeing hints regarding the new production process for Y?

talks about molten aluminum. way beyond my understanding, but maybe somebody could chime in.

 

[ammulder]

I can see how an investor can sell if their investment thesis no longer holds (and a better opportunity appears) - or if there is a deadline for when the cash is needed (for e.g. real estate) - but in the latter case TSLA would seem to volatile. Or if in retirement, one could cash out a small percentage every year.

But setting an arbitrary profit and selling when that is reached regardless of the time and other circumstances seems not entirely rational.

Well... what if you want to pull out some TSLA to buy a Tesla? (Not that I'm hoping the minivan will have a catastrophic breakdown or anything... OK I am.)

 

[KarenRei]

interesting. are we seeing hints regarding the new production process for Y?

3.1.2 A002 casting.pdf

talks about molten aluminum. way beyond my understanding, but maybe some of the manufacturing gurus could chime in.

Everything seems to be fitting together:

• Tesla patents system for casting whole bodies in a single casting
• Musk talks about fascinating manufacturing techniques for the Model Y
• GF4's Model Y line will have an unusually massive foundry

Seems pretty straightforward, I guess...

I still have trouble that believing that the Ys out of Fremont will be made with such a system, however. No permits for it, no signs of its construction, too fast of a timetable, not in line with the intent of getting the Y out as soon as possible by making it share as much as possible with the 3, etc. I think GF4 will be pioneering a new path. And since 3 and Y share a common platform, subsequent 3 lines will be built in a similar manner.

ED: Hmm, only 95kg per batch? And alumium? Maybe not then.

 

[Nocturnal]

I'm buying into the idea that some institutions are front running anticipated S&P inclusion. Either that or some other big folks like what they see, or a combination thereof. I just find it incredibly unlikely that this volume is being driven by retail investing, and if Ihor is to be believed, it's not being driven primarily by short covering either. (Amplfiied? Sure, I buy that. I've seen enough anecdotes now to believe it.)

Tomorrow's Nasdaq SI report can't come soon enough.

EDIT: Another thought -- if this is front running ahead of anticipated S&P inclusion, I wonder what the effects of a negative Q1, or smaller than consensus Q4 would be that make Q1 more of a stretch in terms of S&P inclusion. Would the institutions start to unload their shares just to buy them back later in the year? What would that do to the stock price?

I think some caution is not out of line -- if your time horizons are short -- given that Elon has indicated a lack of care for whether the stock is included in the S&P or not.

Thoughts? I suppose the latter half of this post is trending dangerously close to off-topic for this thread.

I don't understand the strict moderation around here. Not that keeping things on topic is bad, but Moderator tone always seems to be that there are hundreds of people complaining about the issue, and a few jerks bucking their desires. Most "customers" of this thread seem happy enough. To be fair I definitely understand from personal experience that moderation is a thankless and frequently annoying job.

IMO, if it's material to the company it's on topic. If it's material to SP, it's on topic. That's a huge range of topics.

I don't have any knowledge on how institutions like to invest, but as always, Tesla is volatile. It seems unlikely that we have a mediocre Q4 so it comes down to Q1 at least being slightly profitable to meet S&P guidelines. With China happening, increasing margins, and hopefully more deferred FSD revenue (and ZEV credits?) I'm guessing Q1 will be ok.

 

[Robertj]

Musk meets Shanghai Party Secretary

RayTesla️ on Twitter

 

[MABMAB]

Interesting after hours.

View attachment 498349

and a moment later.

its -0.59

Post 122370 by artful dodger talk a bit about yesterdays VWAP. Your after hours blip can be the same thing, AND is my charting systems VWAP for the day

 

[MABMAB]

Thanks for highlighting the unusually large volume already today. It's gonna be a 'greet dee'...

Using NASDAQ's 'per minute' trading data, yesterday's VWAP was $485.79 / Share.

Right now, TSLA's 30-day avg volume is 10.95M shares, Std Dev 5.78 M

BTW, yesterdays's volume (31,199,390 shares) was No. 2 in the all-time ranking of TLSA trading days. Only Sep 28, 2018 (SEC sues) had higher vol (33,597,290 shares).

Note: Shortzes are expending huge ammo in the early, early Pre-market today. SP is trading in a tight range around the Upper-BB, which should open close to $491.

Cheers!

WOW, did you notice VWAP today being about the same price?

 

[Aeon]

Anybody buying this?

The Tesladorian on Twitter

 

[Tyler34]

I don't understand the strict moderation around here. Not that keeping things on topic is bad, but Moderator tone always seems to be that there are hundreds of people complaining about the issue, and a few jerks bucking their desires. Most "customers" of this thread seem happy enough. To be fair I definitely understand from personal experience that moderation is a thankless and frequently annoying job.

IMO, if it's material to the company it's on topic. If it's material to SP, it's on topic. That's a huge range of topics.

I don't have any knowledge on how institutions like to invest, but as always, Tesla is volatile. It seems unlikely that we have a mediocre Q4 so it comes down to Q1 at least being slightly profitable to meet S&P guidelines. With China happening, increasing margins, and hopefully more deferred FSD revenue (and ZEV credits?) I'm guessing Q1 will be ok.

How will we be able to read 50 pages every day of every cent the SP goes up posts if other posts aren't moderated out? /s

 

[kengchang]

Anybody buying this?

The Tesladorian on Twitter

I mean Q3 was profitable...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Liquidity is measured by book depth, not how many shares are traded.

You can have one share that's traded back and forth between two people 30million times in a day to get 30million in volume. But good luck trying to buy or sell 2 or more shares in such a market.

The buy side of the order book today did look much shallower than the sell side. Maybe that's what the original quote (from the former hedge fund manager) was referencing.

Everything seems to be fitting together:

• Tesla patents system for casting whole bodies in a single casting
• Musk talks about fascinating manufacturing techniques for the Model Y
• GF4's Model Y line will have an unusually massive foundry

Seems pretty straightforward, I guess...

I still have trouble that believing that the Ys out of Fremont will be made with such a system, however. No permits for it, no signs of its construction, too fast of a timetable, not in line with the intent of getting the Y out as soon as possible by making it share as much as possible with the 3, etc. I think GF4 will be pioneering a new path. And since 3 and Y share a common platform, subsequent 3 lines will be built in a similar manner.

ED: Hmm, only 95kg per batch? And alumium? Maybe not then.

GF4 would be the first factory where they can build it from the ground up with the Y manufacturing process already matured, so it'll be interesting to see how it's done. Is it known whether Tesla is launching both products (3 and Y) simultaneously at GF4, or rolling one out before the other?

Anybody buying this?
View attachment 498395

The Tesladorian on Twitter

Ah, so this is what the deleted tweet from a few days back was referencing. I'm sure they're referencing GAAP profitability in Q3. I'm not even sure they could disclose something like profitability for the year or even Q4 prior to Q4 earnings without breaking securities laws. Too bad though; surprise GAAP profitability for the year would be a seismic event for the stock.

 

[KarenRei]

Anybody buying this?
View attachment 498395

The Tesladorian on Twitter

"Not I," said the Karen.

 

[defc0n]

Anybody buying this?
View attachment 498395

The Tesladorian on Twitter

I do not think you should read this and infer profitability for the whole year.

 

[Unpilot]

@Unpilot promised up, up, up. I heard nothing about down.

Let's see Monday/up Tuesday/up Wednesday/up
That's three up's

 

[kbM3]

Absolute 100% Guaranteed MUST WATCH

Tesla Daily killed explaining what’s going 0n. Especially for those who are hypothesizing reasons for this run!

 

[bzbee]

Elon has repeatedly expressed his lack of interest for eVTOLs, expecting those to be urban nuisances at best.

Israel is home Mobileye and a bunch of other hi-tech automotive/AI/battery companies with a highly qualified workforce uninterested to move to the US though.

Not to dismiss the brain power of Israeli workforce in fields like battery/automotive/AI and basicity all areas of current academic research... However my guess is Musk's main motivation is luring in Mobileye personnel. Tesla appears to be several years behind Mobileye, whose camera-based cars demonstrate the ability of an intelligent driver in diverse driving conditions.

I'd suggest investing some time to watch a recent presentation by Mobileye's CEO:
1. first 11min are business description..
2. Technical talk sprinkled with demonstration videos start at 11:16

3. In the video description, there's a link for the full 20min demonstration video which is used throughout the presentation.


In any case, hoping for new TSLA ATH next week... I do need to maintain my latest habit.



May you Invest long $TSLA and prosper!

 

[Bet TSLA]

... Freemont ... Freemont.

Maybe it's just me, but when I see "Freemont" I just skip to the next post.

 

[Bet TSLA]

what do you guys think of this?
i think in the long run it is good for the mission and business coz model y and cyber* will be more profitable with lots of volume
might actually increase demand for model x and s.

Tesla (TSLA) Factory Checks Suggest Model S and Model X May Have Reached 'End-of-Life', Focus to Be Model Y, 3 and Cybertruck - Chowdhry

Trip Chowdhry is a long-time Apple analyst who has always had a penchant for moronic predictions. He's been wrong about Apple very consistently for years. There's no reason to think he'll be any more insightful about Tesla.

 

[Navin]

Man - I wish there was a daily ESPN highlights from this section of TMC. I’d pay for it.