Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

Look at Ross Gerber. He had $105,000 worth of Tesla when it was $30/share. But he traded/sold it and now only has 200 shares left.

I am in a state of disbelief - since Gerber claims to administrate funds of 840M $.

Do you have a source for this ?

 

[Chocochip]

My TSLA holdings are up today only about one monthly salary's worth for me... pfff, so boring!

 

[Drax7]

40 P/E is extremely low for a growth company.
I see 2020 at $8 EPS at 100 P/E - you arrive at $800 per share
I see 2021 at $16 EPS at 80 P/E - you arrive at $1,280 per share
I know people dislike the comparison to Amazon but its P/E multiple is a good example of what we should see with growth companies:
View attachment 500021

You may be right, p/e is basically a measure of expectation,
The greater the addressable mkt and the greater Tesla’s dominance the greater the number.
Those 2 factors are now being discounted into the valuation.
I picked 40 out of thin air, actually Ferrari has a 40 P/E
Nonetheless, The value now is being determined by peoples exposure more than anything else.

 

[Curt Renz]

Kathy Wood to be on CNBC within the hour.

ARK Invest tweeted that CEO Cathie Wood's CNBC interview about Tesla should begin around 11:40 am EST: Login on Twitter

Then ARK will conduct its monthly webinar at 1:30 pm EST: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7119127061193927937?__hssc=84851910.1.1579019824359&__hstc=84851910.54652ebf6e62530bc0543bc04b01a66b.1579019824358.1579019824358.1579019824358.1&__hsfp=710786758&hsCtaTracking=caa70d16-06c4-40e4-a27a-9db0f8c90826|9f08ee5a-1609-4afa-8b88-1887f170d8f4

Also ARK's "BIg Ideas 2020" became available today: #BigIdeas2020 by ARK Invest

Tesla is easily the largest holding in three of ARK's ETFs.

 

[LJS22]

Kathy Wood to be on CNBC within the hour.

Hopefully they let her talk. Seems like she isn’t allowed to finish a thought on CNBC

 

[lklundin]

Do you mean because this would mean the SP would spike insanely high, only to come back down again fast?

Right, if the SP is driven up very quickly due to shorts covering, then it can be expected to come down again quickly.

But what worries me is that during this short time, the SP will run through the order books at an insane rate, so the bid-ask spread can become huge, so some tier-N retail traders like myself will be far from getting timely updates to the bid-ask - so there is a risk that one's limit order will be filled right at or very close to the limit, although at that moment the bid-ask may look very different.

Think about it, if the SP goes up (or down) at say 100$ every minute (and 10 times that for options), the average retail trader will likely enter a far from optimal trading order - and some market makers may have someone on their desk who tries to (illegally) profit from that, on the thinking that with the extreme volatility and volume overload no one will notice.

So while it is an interesting thought that we momentarily reach ArkInvest's 4k $ SP some time this spring, that moment could also be a moment were the ill-informed and ill-equipped retail seller who tries to take some profit gets completely screwed over.

So a recurring pattern of a 1-2% daily gain for a few days followed by some minor correction actually seems better, to me at least.

 

[The Accountant]

I am in a state of disbelief - since Gerber claims to administrate funds of 840M $.

Do you have a source for this ?

I believe what Ross means is that he has only 200 TSLa shares left from his $30 entry point but he has purchased more along the way.
He has more than 200 shares today but at a higher cost basis.

 

[Vines]

I am in a state of disbelief - since Gerber claims to administrate funds of 840M $.

Do you have a source for this ?

He posted it on Twitter last night when he was acting as the market cooler.

Yahoo datastream acting wierd on the TSLA ticker. They are very far from my etrade account display, and it doesn't seem to be the 3-5 minute delay. The running theme is Yahoo is $3-5 lower price than Etrade shows when I refresh my buy order. (edit typos)

 

[scaesare]

So long as Elon keeps his ratio of personal-luxury-spending to investment-in-a-better-future-spending down, I consider being diluted by CEO awards to Elon to be a form of charitable contribution to building a better world.

In regards to that, I do think he's gone a bit overboard in terms of buying out the neighbors in his neighborhood. Last I saw his LA real estate was estimated at $70M, and he has smaller amounts of real estate elsewhere. But he's far from "private islands", "superyachts", "floating sky palaces" territory. He also has a $70M Gulfstream G650ER, which sometimes he practically lives out of, but 90+% of his travel is business travel, and pretty much nobody who supports Musk's work wants to see him wasting time traveling coach. He could get by on a cheaper jet, with only occasionally needing more stopovers, but... meh.

While I don't think that anybody should be in a situation to be spending many tens / lower hundreds of millions of dollars in personal luxury (while simultaneously recognizing that people who are good at using billions of dollars of capital to create new wealth or running cost-effective charitable activities should be encouraged to do so - that the act of "having wealth" isn't itself the problem, it's the usage).... compared to his peers, Elon's personal luxury spending appears to be relatively modest. I mean, just one of Gates's many mansions and ranches alone is worth more ($123M) than all of Musk's real-estate combined - and Gates is generally thought of as a "philanthropic billionaire"

I do support him getting his Volcano Lair, however.... he deserves it.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Aha! A little bitter perhaps?

To tell you the honest truth, who really gives a FF if it drops 10%, LOL!

People are so short-sighted they can't get out of their own way.

Aha! indeed. Speak of "any idiot" and he shall appear.

**edited for clarity**

 

[capster]

Reach 530 now AFH. If this is Not squeezing , then what is that?

It is an overall reasonably well managed retreat; meaning no massive VW squeeze type spike yet and maybe not likely, though, yes, a bit squeezy.

The Tesla will die/can be killed thesis is, well, dead.

The primary debatable points that remain are:

• Is Tesla actually a disruptor?
• Are the legacy automakers truly unable to compete anytime soon, if ever?

If the answers to these questions are even "maybe’s" (I’m pretty sure they’re "yes’s"), then Tesla becomes the obvious candidate for a necessary hedge against positions tied to the oil fired economy.

To reiterate the discussion earlier about volatility differing from risk, consider that many assets at risk from an energy transformation may not have volatility that reflects that risk at the moment. It is not surprising to see new players move in and some existing players flip their positions.

So, if my answers remain "yes’s," does that mean I’m sticking to my oft stated ‘buy and never sell’ strategy? Why, yes, of course.

Not advice. YMMV.

 

[ZsoZso]

The stock has to rise much higher and faster to get rid of the shorts.
Looks like they are still not in panic and instead doubling down:

 

[X Fan]

Just caught last 30 seconds of Woods’ CNBC visit.

Can someone please recap her interview?

 

[GBleck]

I do support him getting his Volcano Lair, however.... he deserves it.

I don't know if the pacific volcanic island I linked to him on twitter is still available. I'll check.

Kanacea Island - Fiji, South Pacific - Private Islands for Sale

7 Volcanic peaks. It's only 26 mill so plenty of change left over to add rocket launch and landing facilities.

 

[Nocturnal]

Am I hearing correctly that Ark raised their SP target even higher, above 6k?

The stock has to rise much higher and faster to get rid of the shorts.
Looks like they are still not in panic and instead doubling down:
View attachment 500045

What did smeagol say? Even my burner/tslaq account is blocked from that guy.

 

[AudubonB]

NB: This IS on topic. For the health of all of you.

I did not spend the entire day glued to the stock market price action. Some things really, truly are more important. By the way: eyes are garage-door rollers. First such use in history, I'll wager.

View attachment 499814

24-hour update. And, once again, On Topic:

Alas, poor ICE. I knew him, Horatio.

 

[Chocochip]

The stock has to rise much higher and faster to get rid of the shorts.
Looks like they are still not in panic and instead doubling down:
View attachment 500045

Good! Somebody has to pay so that the longs keep making money!

 

[LJS22]

Just caught last 30 seconds of Woods’ CNBC visit.

Can someone please recap her interview?

Kathy made some great points. She’s banking on EV’s to have a third of market share in 5 years and their old model said Tesla would lose their market share down to 11% but now the new model shows no loss maintaining 17%.
She discussed autonomy and got pressed about regulations. Kathy tried to quote Elon and got cut off with “I didn’t ask what Elon thinks I asked what you think” then one dumbass said “well what about Porsche they enter the EV market this year and they had a good year?” Kathy thought that was funny and said watch out for VW because they are actually building a battery plant.

She was trying to tell them that analyst don’t know how value Tesla because they are use to old auto and Tesla’s software will be the difference

 

[KarenRei]

I do support him getting his Volcano Lair, however.... he deserves it.

That's worth it if only for making the history books that future people will read** a bit more surreal

** Well, for a flexible definition of the terms "books", "read", and "people" post-singularity.

 

[avoigt]

Ihor Dusaniwsky

Yes, highest short interest since 2016

Highest in $

Ihor Dusaniwsky on Twitter