Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AlexS]

Macro is heading up while TSLA is being pushed down to session low HMMM

weak hands selling

 

[StealthP3D]

But I do agree that the picture remains unclear. The question of a US price drop continues to loom.

What? Why would Tesla lower the price when people are backed up and waiting weeks to get their cars?

 

[woodisgood]

Two things I'm particularly interested in for Q4 earnings report, and which I think could send the stock price higher despite the recent bull run:

1. Q4 profits sufficient such that a Q1 profit of $1 dollar will make Tesla eligible for S&P inclusion.
2. Guidance.

EDIT: Conversely, I think relatively conservative growth projections for 2020 and beyond and/or weaker than expected Q4 profits will result in a sharp pullback. Just my $0.02.

Do you think S&P inclusion isn't priced in yet?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What? Why would Tesla lower the price when people are backed up and waiting weeks to get their cars?

Yeah at this point given the wait times across the world for 3 and even the S/X, the only question for Q1 is production rate. I would be very surprised to see price drops given the anecdotal evidence we have in front of us

 

[hobbes]

In the center of the third picture you posted there is a small access road that has been made wider and has gotten an exit ramp from the already paved road. Some trees have been cut down for this. Access road will be covered with gravel.

Access road got paved:

#Gf4 #Gigafactory4 on Twitter

 

[Singuy]

Our Tesla center cranks out 30-40

This just in: Tesla China has asked publicly for input from China designers and non-designers to design a "made in China" Tesla model with Chinese design elements:

特拉风T☰SLA mania on Twitter

View attachment 500388​

Interesting is the third picture they provided:

Which looks like a small form factor hatchback - broadly along the lines of my speculation here:



Note that I've edited my original comment from "Model 4" to "Model 1": four is an unlucky number in Chinese culture.

Alternatively they might also name it "Model 7" - or not use any numbering at all.

Model 7? Nah it's going to be the Model 8 because there's only one number the Chinese cares about. Too bad it looks like Motel 8 when you read it.

 

[Skryll]

I assume everyone knows this here, but yo be sure....MIT has basically become a climate denial PR firm after David Koch cut them a $110M check.

Source?

All I could find are $25 millon to cancer research and resulting whitewashing in the obituary.

 

[Intl Professor]

Please note, Mod of one. "I will delete any post suggesting color denotation of post content. I agree on all suggestions. Combined, all possible examples aggregate into one color: black. So stop." Admittedly not a first principle of physics, but of comity on the thread. I'm an extinguished prof of govt, not of physics which is true of another emeritus prof dckminsster. Ugh. I can't find his name. Apologies. Alas, poor Yorick, I knew him well.

Babbling on.

 

[lklundin]

Here is a fresh GF3 video from Wuva:

Interestingly, from 3m16s to 3m18s there are a few black/white checkered Teslas.
What are they?

Edit: The outermost is different from the three other checkered ones, it looks like a 3, could the others be Ys?

 

[Tslynk67]

In all seriousness. How good does the quarterly report have to be to justify the gains at this point. Long term obviously the sentiment here is it's still a bargain. But the recent price increase seems to indicate the warning report is going to be mind blowingly good. I actually expect a dip when it comes out because as awesome as a company Tesla is the report can only indicate so much.

What we've been seeing the last 6 months is a reaction to the stock being ridiculously oversold after the disastrous 19Q1, plus record quarterly deliveries, profitability, GF3 starting production, Cybertruck reveal turning out to be massive (eventually), and so on.

Yes there's also an expectation now of a good 19Q4 report, and strong speculation about S&P 500 inclusion, but to say the rise is purely based on the upcoming report is not a good analysis.

 

[Cherry Wine]

What? Why would Tesla lower the price when people are backed up and waiting weeks to get their cars?

They wouldn't, but we're still early in the quarter and an announcement could be timed for Q4 earnings. So I think ruling out the possibility entirely is a mistake, but I agree with @StarFoxisDown! that every day without an announcement, in conjunction with other anecdotal evidence, makes it very unlikely such a price reduction will occur.

That is bullish AF.

Yeah at this point given the wait times across the world for 3 and even the S/X, the only question for Q1 is production rate. I would be very surprised to see price drops given the anecdotal evidence we have in front of us

Do you think S&P inclusion isn't priced in yet?

Again just my opinion, because how the hell would I really know?, I think S&P inclusion is priced in to an extent. The reason I think that can be summed up in one word: uncertainty.

Every event that removes uncertainty will result in a further pricing in by the market. Q4 P&D was one of those events, as investors modeled the results into Q4 earnings. But those are just models and we can be surprised to the upside or downside; uncertainty still exists. Which is why I expect that any Q4 result that makes Q1 a shoo-in for profitability will send the stock higher as another layer of uncertainty is peeled back and folks place their bets accordingly.

I think Q1'20 P&D and Q1'20 earnings results will continue to be powerful catalysts as they peel back those last layers of uncertainty for a mid-2020 S&P inclusion (or not).

Just my $0.02. Happy to hear opinions to the contrary.

 

[Green Pete]

They wouldn't, but we're still early in the quarter and an announcement could be timed for Q4 earnings. So I think ruling out the possibility entirely is a mistake, but I agree with @StarFoxisDown! that every day without an announcement, in conjunction with other anecdotal evidence, makes it very unlikely such a price reduction will occur.

That is bullish AF.





Again just my opinion, because how the hell would I really know?, I think S&P inclusion is priced in to an extent. The reason I think that can be summed up in one word: uncertainty.

Every event that removes uncertainty will result in a further pricing in by the market. Q4 P&D was one of those events, as investors modeled the results into Q4 earnings. But those are just models and we can be surprised to the upside or downside; uncertainty still exists. Which is why I expect that any Q4 result that makes Q1 a shoo-in for profitability will send the stock higher as another layer of uncertainty is peeled back and folks place their bets accordingly.

I think Q1'20 P&D and Q1'20 earnings results will continue to be powerful catalysts as they peel back those last layers of uncertainty for a mid-2020 S&P inclusion (or not).

Just my $0.02. Happy to hear opinions to the contrary.

Maybe I'm not understanding but how can s and p be priced in. When it happens a massive amount of stock will need to be purchased so actually have it included. Which would be the thing that actually increases the stock price.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Maybe I'm not understanding but how can s and p be priced in. When it happens a massive amount of stock will need to be purchased so actually have it included. Which would be the thing that actually increases the stock price.

Two reasons:

1. Investors like you and I, and much bigger fish, betting on the outcome.
2. Institutions frontrunning the inclusion to get a better price. (I am basing this latter on reports I've read from respected posters in this very forum.)

 

[Tslynk67]

Kolodny's back with an attempt at hit piece, to which the SP reacted not one iota, it's on CNBC, in case anyone wants to read it:

Tesla sales employees petition for higher base pay after commission cuts in 2019
PUBLISHED WED, JAN 15 20202:51 PM EST

Lora Kolodny@LORAKOLODNY

KEY POINTS

• A Tesla sales employee emailed other staffers asking for support in seeking higher base pay after commissions were cut and responsibilities increased in the second half of 2019.
• Several current and former sales employees explained that bonuses and commissions were cut, and roles combined.
• The petition shows how Tesla has pushed some employees to do more with less as the company drives hard to improve margins and reach sustained profitability.

Strikes me that Wall Street should like this kind of thing - cost reduction & control...?

 

[steak&chicken]

S&P inclusion is not priced in. You're going to see the price move like you've never seen before once the news is announced.

 

[mblakele]

This morning I noticed two truckloads of Teslas, mostly 3, northbound 101 between the Dumbarton and San Mateo bridges. So cars are leaving Frémont. I didn’t have a lot of time to look, but I’m about 75% confident that some were RHD. If no ships are loading, maybe they’re staging cars nearby?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Blackrock dumping some TSLA would hurt their already large holding in TSLA. It would also damage the credibility of their recently proclaimed anti-climate change promotion. Instead, buying more TSLA could boost the value of their overall TSLA holdings, while lending more credence to their stated position on climate change.

If Blackrock wants to boost their eco-credibility, all they need to do is recall their TSLA shares and stop lending them to short sellers. That'll leave a mark*.

Cheers!

*Blackrock is the #5 largest Institutional holder of TSLA with 5.731% of the stock.

Tesla, Inc. Common Stock (TSLA) Institutional Holdings

 

[BobbyKings]

Here is a fresh GF3 video from Wuva:

Interestingly, from 3m16s to 3m18s there are a few black/white checkered Teslas.
What are they?

Seem like the stretched Model 3s as spotted before in China.

 

[Tim S]

Geotagging data shows Tesla Model Y vs. Ford Mach-E interest for each US state

Geotagging data shows Tesla Model Y vs. Ford Mach-E interest for each US state

View attachment 500497

What is xautoworld.com? I don't believe this map. I doubt there is any state with more interest in Mach E than Model Y. Especially not Nevada.

 

[Cherry Wine]

S&P inclusion is not priced in. You're going to see the price move like you've never seen before once the news is announced.

It is almost a certainty that some TSLA equity / derivatives have been already purchased because of the increasing likelihood of S&P inclusion. In fact, it is a certainty, because some of my positions are based on that possibility.

I am not saying that S&P inclusion is fully priced in. I am saying that I think some of the stock price rise are the beginnings of that process.

If you disagree with that, then we can agree to disagree unless you can convince me otherwise. On one thing we can agree: every step that moves us closer to the eventuality of S&P inclusion will result in a stock price increase.