Friday would be the day. It should stretch lower. I think Elon is busy with SpaceX this week so I doubt any groundbreaking news comes out anytime soon. Tesla is likely holding its cards for earnings.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
The Accountant
Active Member
With the expirations out of the way, wouldn't we expect to see a recovery on Monday with all things considered equal?
bhtooefr
Active Member
Worth noting that next week's max pain is currently at 500. (It's not weighed down by old LEAP bankruptcy puts.)
anthonyj
Stonks
Goes green today, like it always does when it gaps down due to a downgrade
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Might be cash covered put writing day if you have the cash, the premiums are going to be juicy, and worst-case there's more shares at a discount.
You can set the strike aggressively close to the market price and use short expiry just beyond the Q4 ER, if you want to buy the dip anyway and don't mind being exercised early.
ProfTournesol
Member
As long as there is no good news I don't expect any great movements anymore. The ER has to do it, hopefully it works out. I'm still wondering why they didn't announce the date yet.
ProfTournesol
Member
How? The MMD will dip it to -5% / -6% or somebody is getting ready to launch it on the opening bell, but I don't see a reason why.
Because this is EoY. It always takes longer.
What kind of historical? I just don't understand how Bloomberg could know anything more than what is in the 13Gs. And for that matter I would think there is no way they were holding 8.3M shares in 2019. If I'm thinking about strategic filing usually you want to buy/sell more than what you file for. So they filed on March 28th for 5% as of March 14th. That gave them 2 weeks to keep buying who knows how much but certainly not more than 10% which is another filing threshold. Then at the end of the year it is almost like they were sneaky since everyone has to file their December 31st share count if it changes, but if that count is under 5% they don't have to file anymore after that one. So they filed for 4.97% on February 12th (2018). It looks like a regular year end small update but no one noticed they went under the reporting threshold. So, my personal speculation is they may have sold down to something significantly smaller than 5% in January 2018. Maybe that is 3.5% or maybe that is 0 but at this point I don't think anyone or any service can really know.
This wish for lower SP is sad on one level.
That is the effect it has on the people that build the company. The line workers...office workers. Many are probably like me....not very sophisticated in the area of leverage..or margin...of options.
What they see is the value of the company and for many I assume by extension themselves being driven down.
Every time the SP falls I'm willing to bet it has some non zero negative effect on lots of people that actually create value for all of us here.
Something to keep in mind.
Peace.
That is the effect it has on the people that build the company. The line workers...office workers. Many are probably like me....not very sophisticated in the area of leverage..or margin...of options.
What they see is the value of the company and for many I assume by extension themselves being driven down.
Every time the SP falls I'm willing to bet it has some non zero negative effect on lots of people that actually create value for all of us here.
Something to keep in mind.
Peace.
I think for me 500 looks like new 300, buying around 500 seem right. And highest PUT value for tomorrow is sitting at 500, I am not sure if market makers are willing to pay out these puts. Maybe I am delusional, also possible.
We need ER date. But it is possible that ER will be held maybe in the end of February, because of some information they don't want to release earlier.
Sean Wagner
Member
Excellent.
Keep in mind that total sales might very well shrink dramatically on the evaporation of demand for classic cars.
Incidentally, Tesla just has to keep on scaling and reducing cell costs.
In the meantime, Swiss data for 2019 [reminder - no federal incentives for EVs, while cantonal policies will vary]:
Top Ten Modelle Januar - Dezember 2019
1 Škoda Octavia 9280
2 VW Tiguan 7018
3 VW Golf 6596
4 Tesla Model 3 5028
5 Mercedes-Benz GLC-Klasse 4743
6 Mercedes-Benz A-Klasse 4672
7 Škoda Kodiaq 4594
8 Škoda Karoq 4344
9 Mercedes-Benz C-Klasse 4277
10 VW Polo 3933
...
Audi e-tron 683 ... Tesla Model X 528 ... Tesla Model S 505
Fertile ground for the Model Y, what with the Tiguan, GLC, Kodiaq and Karoq belonging to roughly the same segment.
Kudos once again to Prof. Dudenhöffer, one of Germany's foremost automotive experts, for predicting Tesla's rise by pointing to the early sales success of the Model S over here.
For those of you in NY - If you see Adam Jonas tonight in the meat packing district surrounded by models and 20/30 year old guys with Patagonia vests - pls don’t question. Just understand - this is the way.
I normally have this attitude. But some retracement 1) will let far more people who are worried that they missed the boat get back in, and 2) once it settles, comfort people who were worried about an unsustainable bubble (e.g., taking some heat off). If the stock never drops at all, people worry that it's going to explode downward.
In a flatlining or declining SP environment, I would share your concern. But not in the current environment. I mean, premarket is down to the terrible lows of... (checks the graph).... Monday morning.
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bloomberg data vendor for st
(these are from 13Fs etc)
let me recheck that to find out what the hell is up with that data. either i made a major typo or they just have it wrong - it happens, i deal w them all the time.
If Tesla keeps executing there is nothing to worry about. These new shorts will cover the moment they see profit on Q4 earnings.
Then depending on how aggressive Tesla’s guidance for 2020 is we will see a new wave of bets against Tesla. Right now it’s not making any sense, the ball is in Tesla’s court. Shorting now is just a lack of understanding of Tesla. Their best chance is to let Elon lay out some aggressive 2020 goals and place their bet then.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
ICE passenger vehicle sales will be far closer to 0% marketshare than 50% in 2030.
CNBC somehow just called Adam Jonas a genius “it may have taken a while to get here but Adam Jonas was right in a roundabout way” lol
Something about his December 5th letter saying he expects a surge but the company will be perceived as a traditional auto maker as time goes on. Then they called him a Tesla Bull.
Something about his December 5th letter saying he expects a surge but the company will be perceived as a traditional auto maker as time goes on. Then they called him a Tesla Bull.
Cool, I'd be curious. I would expect they would publish the data as 8.3M shares on January 31st 2017, and then just move it to 0 after that since they can't know anymore. Maybe someone fixed it in 2019.
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